Toro99

Yes please to the 18z gfs. Fully in love with a single operational run from a single model. Some cold rain, followed by a half inch of ice, followed by over a foot of snow. Even though I might lose power, I am still rooting for this because it would be historic.

About 2 inches of slushcrete, over 200 school district closed this morning in SW MI, GRR: GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THIS EVENT WHICH COMES DURING THE LESS TRAVELED OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND FAST ARRIVAL OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS, WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME

Plume mean for GRR is still holding steady at 11” from 6z to 6z. Is there a general rule that you should cut totals in half when using the plume viewer? Or at this range, can confidence in verification be given? Also, what ratio is used for SREF forecast products, Kuchera or 10-1? Sorry for lurker questions, love to learn.

Plumes for GRR, with the unrealistic clunkers removed of course. Remember Grr’s take on this storm from Saturday? Lol

Just brutal trends today and subsequent cutoffs for Kent and Ottawa counties in MI

SREF plumes mean went from 6” to 2.5” for GRR in about 12 hours. Total dud, and gives confidence to our consistently bearish office heading into winter

Looking back, there was a general winter discussion started by Hoosier last September, that was more big picture overall type thread. The medium and long range discussion was used to hype GFS storms in fantasyland. That’s my drug......Wasn’t the short/medium used to catch small systems that were not thread worthy, once they got inside a few days? Most likely I am miss remembering

December 9th, and the "Winter 2021-22 Medium/Long Range Discussion" thread hasn't even been started. I wonder what the latest date for that bump is over the years. I'm a lurker so it won't be me....

Apocalypse Never. Read it, and allow yourself to be triggered. Some of you need to settle down on this board. I mean honestly, you don’t even consider the other side of the coin. We are now holding up third world dumps as the epitome of a perfect energy civilization, yet not one of you would move to these places. Neo-colonialism, AKA conservationism and renewable energy utopia is and will always be a pursuit taken on by rich countries at the expense of poor nations. How retarded do you have to be to state that factory farming meat is unhealthy? Without it you don’t eat, wtf is unhealthier than not having a consistent food supply for you and yours?? Oh, that’s right, it’s higher in saturated fat.

I know this isn’t the proper thread, but sadly, the coronavirus conversation needs to be reopened. Given the latest developments, I think it would be wise for this “generally analytical” group to discuss the current trends. I highly valued the discussions on this board during previous waves, and I would love to hear some current opinions on boosters, breakthroughs, Israel’s data, etc.

Hey Stebo, I know you’ve had some opinions on DTW over the years, what would you have done for the GRR forecast area? It’s seems crazy to me (just a lurker mind you) that based on 24 hr trends and current guidance that most if not all of their advisory counties should have been upgraded to warning. Even using a conservative 18:1 slr (their number per afd) and avg. qpf of around 0.35-0.40 for the whole area, you come out with snowfall and event duration that would seem to warrant the upgrade?

GRR plumes have a mean of a foot of snow falling between 00z and 10z, why aren’t they upgrading to a warning? Just GRR doing their thang......

Food for thought, not sure how reliable the data is.

It makes no sense to think that the same virus we see ravaging Europe would simply stop circulating in China just because they have locked down one city for a number of weeks. A lockdown may slow the viruse’s spread, but it will not completely shut it down. If China is truly resuming normal life, the logical expectations is that this virus would surge again and begin to infect everyone who hadn’t been infected the first time. China saying there’s no no infections, to me, simply makes absolutely no sense and I’ve not heard one expert be able to explain how a simple lock down for a few weeks in one region of China would stop it in its tracks. They have a population of billions.....

Go listen to Joe Rogan’s podcast with Michael Osterholm and let me know if you think this is overblown. It’s just getting started.

I honestly thought posting 384hr snowfall maps and starting threads more than 120 hrs out was banned several years ago. My, times have changed.

5/8 days with mixed precipitation for sw MI, in late January. Winter ‘19-‘20 is broken.

Can anyone who is more knowledgeable than me, explain why GRR went with an advisory versus a warning? Most models have a lot of their CWA receiving 6 inches or more in 12 hours tonight, and certainly 8 inches plus in 24 hours when the lake affect kicks in later on Saturday. Add that to the fact that this is going to be the most significant snow we’ve had all year, wouldn’t be prudent to go with a warning? Is it the timing of the snow, overnight? Or is it just GRR being GRR? Thanks in advance .

Just a few short years ago, people got crushed on this board for posting model outputs +7 days or more. Like 1 % of these fantasy storms ever come close to materializing. I think we are a tortured group :]

GRR LOVES that 0Z NAM map

Looking good for another shot of 3-6" for those of us in Wisconsin and Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday. Due to model fatigue and lack of coverage in the sub-forum, probably not thread worthy.

Both the RAP and HRRR showing what looks like a "lake shadow" effect, which would significantly cut into accretion totals for SW Michigan. Man, it has to be tough forecasting icing events. Yesterday, I was surprised that an ice storm warning wasn't issued by KGRR, and now it looks to be a potential non-event for a large portion of the southern counties.