Upstate Tiger

Yep the Euro brought the goods this run.  

I know its not much and cold air is marginal at best but watching next week.

12Z GFS and teleconnections say move along, nothing to see here today. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

GW was going post similar thoughts.  Some AN but not what I’d term a torch.  I was actually looking forward to the 60s and some nice weather this weekend but had to keep my pullover and hat on all 18 holes Friday.  Never saw 60 last 3 days here.  Long range has looked much much worse.  

4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I started the last one   Everyone should get in on the fun   

You brought the mojo last January.  I started the one the year before and the flowers were blooming by Feb 1st 

Certainly not seeing anything in the operational models today.  Was hoping to see some hint of change in the long range.  One thing that has remained consistent is the lobe of cold air over eastern Canada during mid month. 

As already posted, the indices aren't bad but don't look as good as last few days.  Hoping that is not a trend.  Hate to waste last half of January in an unfavorable pattern.  Still lots of time for change.  In meantime, I'm going to enjoy golfing in 60 degree weather this weekend!  

Also Buckeye needs to start a new year thread...

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks and YW, Mr. Wedge!

 The GEFS retains the favorable solid +PNA/-AO forecast of yesterday as the 2nd week in January arrives. In addition, the MJO model consensus progs still have a very slow moving low amp upper left side path that actually starts near Jan 1 and persists, which in combo with the progged +PNA/-AO based on history/analogs back to the mid 1970s would scream a decent shot at an extensive period of cold SE potential from sometime within the 2nd week of January onward.

 The main fly in the ointment (there usually is one) indexwise for cold potential is that the NAO is projected to approach neutral rather than be negative. But it is falling steadily from a stout +NAO preceding it. Perhaps it would head to a -NAO by midmonth as that's beyond the two week forecast. All 8 of the SE cold January solid +PNA/-AO analogs have a moderate to strong -NAO except for 1961 (weak +NAO). So, that says it would still be possible to have quite a cold January without a -NAO. However, the chances would obviously be significantly better with it.
 

 Looking at the four non-cold January +PNA/-AO analogs, three of them had either a neutral or weakly +NAO. Then again, 2 of those 3 were super-El Niño's. 
 

 The 12Z EPS, similar to recent runs, confirms the transition to a west coast ridge/solid +PNA popping from strongly negative Aleutian heights late in the run. This could easily turn out to be a fun month overall for cold lovers. For warm lovers, please don't shoot the messenger plus you'll have your week in early January, regardless.

Won't rehash this post because today's models are showing same.  It will take a few days for the OPs to catch up with this transition.  Hopefully we start to see some fantasy stuff in the long range by the end of the week.   

Got down to 5 in Cherryville.  Of course furnace went out overnight with house full of grandkids.  Lucky we had gas logs.  Unit was only installed last year.  We’ve had no luck getting service. 

Reached single digits in Cherryville at 9 degrees.  

16 degrees in Cherryville at 730.  

Looking at today's models, teleconnections, and MJO, I am still thinking our next chance of significant winter weather in the SE is after 1/4.  NAO looks to go negative after 1/1, PNA is positive, lots of cold air has rebuilt in Canada, and ECMF has MJO moving into 7.  IF that all were to happen, it could be fun times in our area.  

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The gfs is even more extreme.  Lets take a look. Again we will use the Asheville airport. At hour 93 they are at 42 degrees. Hour 96 down to 14! Hour 99 at 8 degrees. That really shows the rapid drop but the euro is actually colder than the gfs for us. Again just a bit of fun with the models. 

Saw on Weather Channel that Denver will go from 52 at 300PM to -4 at 1200AM.  

The NAO moves toward positive by the end of the month before heading back negative after the 1st.  The PNA moves toward positive at the end of the month and remains slightly positive after the 1st.  The latest from the CPC now has the La Nina lasting until February but in a waning state.  Forecasts earlier in the fall had La Nina ending after the first of the year.  Based on all this, my guess is after a relaxation of the cold at the end of the month, we could see another bout of cold in the east by the end of the first week in January.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml  

As I was out rounding in the hospital this morning, I noticed the clouds rolling in and temps in the 20's.  AAAhhh, what could have been...

It’s difficult to understand how this storm can be this far north and west with the anomalous blocking in the east and ridging in the west.  I will say the 18z GFS is a much more realistic solution than the ECMF IMO.  

6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Looks like Dr No holds back the energy in the west. A known bias. 

EDIT: I could be wrong as I'm training a class and I only looked briefly. 

Yes, kept it back and consolidated. 

Don't sleep on the little system for Tuesday night, no pun intended.  Some places could see a dusting across the foothills and piedmont of NC & SC.  

7 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

GFS unfortunately is on an island. Worse than an island, a different solar system. It has zero support and until it gets some it must be treated for what it always has been; garbage. Waste of taxpayer money.

Very well could be right but everybody was saying the same thing last January leading up to that storm and the GFS lead the way.  

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Ummm. Not sure what ur looking at. The EPS looks good!

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Not sure either.  Looked good to me

Man the Euro is bringing in the cold starting this weekend with another big dump Christmas weekend.  If we can get just a little bit of blocking over the next 2 weeks we could see a nice winter storm in SE.

Speaking of cold, does it ever feel any colder than when it is raining and 39 degrees like today?

CPC out this afternoon sticking with potential of a Miller A around Christmas.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

45 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Agreed! The Euro Ensembles and to a degree the GEFS as well are honking for late next week. That’s what I’m hanging my hat on at this juncture. 

Agree also.  I do not see anything in the Ops or Ens from overnight that should cause any cliff diving.  We have seen far worse patterns this time of the year in recent years.  

Glad to see the rain but what a crappy run of weather.  Must be what it's like to live in London.  Gloomy, damp, and cold.  Hopefully we see some sun next week.  This could make a person depressed!

53 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Which model(s)?

CPC yesterday versus today

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

As mentioned above, the change from yesterday's forecast in the PNA is the difference.  Yesterday's PNA forecast has it moving to positive between the 10-15th.  Today it keeps it negative.