Upstate Tiger

Good synopsis of the pattern in week two from the CPC.  Basically agreeing with previous comments posted above:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

As other have posted the pattern looks really good around mid-month looking at the latest GFS.  Also, NAO heading to really negative territory while the PNA moves toward positive.  

Very, very sad news today from Charlotte.  This happened not too far from our hospital.  Jason seemed like a great guy.

https://www.wbtv.com/2022/11/22/wbtv-mourning-loss-meteorologist-jason-myers-pilot-chip-tayag/

NAO looking to go negative first week of December.  Hopefully PNA continues to trend in a positive direction.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Looks like flow is less amplified after next weekend but wow there is some really cold air building again in central and western Canada the last week of November.  

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

I keep looking for some hint of some cold coming south through the middle of the month but nothing showing up.  There will be some record breaking cold out west next week, especially across the northern Rockies and northern Great Plans.  Lower heights out west should relax after next week.  NAO looks to stay positive through the middle of the month.  After below normal November's for the last few years, maybe we get a below normal December and January instead!

At the end of the 12Z GFS, first week of November, looks like some good cold building in central and western Canada.  

9 hours ago, eyewall said:

This combined with the data shared today on pre 1990 October freezes is pretty eye opening.  Depending on perspective, one could assume a change is inevitable.  I’m going to enjoy this awesome stretch of fall weather and hope for a good winter storm or 2. 

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Tomorrow will be one of the nastiest, coldest, raw September days in recent memory.

Was thinking that remaining in the mid 50s all day in Cherryville probably breaks the September lowest maximum of all time or has to be near the top. 

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Does anyone know where you can find the latest central pressure?  I have looked on the NHC Ian site and the 1100 update as well as weather channel but can't find one since 0800.  

Never mind, found it.  963 at 1100 advisory.

Does anyone know where you can find the latest central pressure?  I have looked on the NHC Ian site and the 1100 update as well as weather channel but can't find one since 0800.  

My Wolfpack friends might want to pack the rain gear for Saturday night.  Probably not a good tailgating game.  Shame with Gameday in town and national TV for top 10 matchup.  Looks really nasty.  

See some lows in the 50s showing up in the long range for the Piedmont.  

We had our 14th foggy morning in the month of August here in Cherryville.  In anticipation of all the snow we are going to get this winter, I ordered this bad boy off Craig's List.  A little ol lady in Jamaica had it for sale.  She said it was barely used.  Can't wait for it to get here.  I will let you guys know how it works when we get our first snow in October.

Pretty good early write up on upcoming winter.  Seems reasonable to me if La Nina wains...

https://www.wlfi.com/news/august-9-fall-winter-spring-2022-23-forecast-with-sneak-peek-regarding-thoughts-on-2023/article_93b83b22-1809-11ed-a2e6-0b4ed9cf3229.html

Loving this pattern!  Sometimes we get locked into these almost monsoon like August patterns in the SE.  Rare, but looks like this may be one of those Augusts.  Remember August of 1978 as one such August.  

On another note, looking like ENSO moves from La Nina to neutral in January.  How quickly, if it happens at all, and its impacts on our winter weather prospects can't be known at this point.  However, I'm thrilled to be moving out of La Nina!  (allegedly )

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Everything I am reading states that La Nina will continue into the fall and early winter months.  Not great news for winter storm lovers in the SE.  More importantly, we do not need another dry winter/spring.  There are some indications that it breaks after December.  We shall see.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/fall-season-2022-early-weather-forecast-united-states-europe-fa/

After watching neighboring areas receive rain over the last few weeks while we were shut out in our part of the western piedmont, we finally cashed in the last couple of days.  .4 Tuesday, 1.4 Wednesday, and 1.5 overnight in Cherryville and we needed every drop!  Tuesday's storm also had high winds and intense lightening.  

101 in Gastonia this afternoon.  Charlotte hit 100 for the first time since 2015.  

Current temp at 54 headed down to low 40s.  It was a great Mothers Day weather wise. As I mentioned in another post, yesterday marked the 30th anniversary of GSPs latest snowfall.  I remember sitting at a red light on Woodruff Road in Greenville headed to work that morning when snow and sleet started hitting the windshield.  I was thinking today that it snowed in 1992 only 8 weeks and 2 days before the 4th of July!   Crazy when you think about it.   

34 this morning in Cherryville.  Oddly the winds were calm but there was no frost anywhere that I could see driving into work this morning.  Shame we get these patterns now in the spring instead of Dec-Feb.  Makes for cold beach and pool water when I make my annual pilgrimage to Myrtle Beach in mid- May. 

The flip side is these are some great golfing and riding days and the cold mornings are keeping the bugs at bay.  Maybe we have a repeat on the 30th anniversary of the great snowstorm of May 1992.  Remember sitting on Woodruff Road in Greenville May 7, 1992 with snow and sleet falling.  Latest snow ever at GSP.  Remember friends driving to Mt. Pisgah to see the 5' of snowfall that fell there.  It stayed relatively cool all summer.   

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m in Cudjoe Key for the week and can verify it is much warmer and more humid than back home right now! 

Just got back from Tampa St Pete.  Was much warmer and more humid there this past week but cool at night.  We actually rode horses in the bay and water was tolerable.  

We may not see another area wide winter storm this season but the pattern over the next 2 weeks could very well produce a significant storm.  This winter has defied many of the expectations from a typical Nina winter in the SE.  It has certainly exceeded the last 2 winters in the SE.  If we don’t get anything out of Mondays setup, there is another deep storm predicted to role over the Midwest at the end of next week that should drag a strong cold front south.  This would be the next timeframe to watch.  

1 hour ago, kgar2121 said:

Are we talking about the Wolfpack again?

Nah.  Sounds like Clemson football.  Season started with great promise, every Monday I felt good about our chances, but each weekend just brought disappointment. 

30 and freezing rain in Cherryville this morning.  Grass and trees covered in ice, broom straw bent over.  Did not encounter any issues on my drive to Gastonia.