Upstate Tiger

As we wait for our impending heat wave to develop over the weekend, the latest ENSO forecast is out.  Looks to stay neutral into the fall.  Overall forecast still showing neutral to last into January (48%) but weak Nina has increased (41%) for late fall early next year.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

There are things in life to be miserable over.  Weather isn’t one of those.  It always changing whether we want it to or not.  

Had to mow my grass for the 2nd time in a week.  Never want to complain about rain  though and it has held the temps down. Mosquitos are at plague level.  Looks like we may hit 90 next weekend.   Good news is after next Saturday it gets darker earlier everyday until Christmas.   

Little over half inch of welcomed rainfall today.  Hopefully some more next couple of days.  

37 this morning when I left for work.  Wasn't prepared for it to be that cold.  Looking forward to tomorrow when it will be near 80.  It also be my first time on the golf course since rotator cuff surgery in January.

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

I agree. I am waiting to see what pops up.

Just had hail with band that went through Lincolnton. 

La Nina died a quiet death and we are now in an ENSO neutral state that looks to last into the fall.  After that, forecasts favor a continuation of neautral or weak Nina.  El Nino conditions are not favored at this time.  I am all in on neutral for summer, fall, and winter.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

While we are near 90 on Saturday, west Texas will experiencing a major snowstorm.  Imagine jumping on a plane in Charlotte in sweltering heat and landing in Amarillo and a snowstorm?

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Everyone wetting their pants over 39 degrees when it’s going to be 90 in 2 days

That’s why I started wearing Depends.  

17 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see this multiple cold front pattern be colder than advertised. 

Yep.  Crazy looking at extended models and seeing how much snow is forecast across the US over the next 2 weeks.  Indication of how cold will be in the lower 48.  The pool will be frigid when it is opened in May.  

Still remember that day.  I was a freshman in college.  Rained in the morning and then sun came out.  When I came out of class after lunch, I remember walking across campus thinking “why is so hot and why am I sweating so much?”  Had no idea what was on the way.  Guys in the room next door to me in the dorm were from Marlboro County.  Left as soon as they got word and went home to help.  Had this outbreak happened in a more populated area, hundreds would have died.  
 

Article  

The worst tornado outbreak in Carolina History unfolded 41 years ago today.  24 tornadoes, 7 of which were EF-4, raced across the Carolinas at 65 mph.  At the end of the 7 hour outbreak, 57 had been killed and over 1200 injured.  Marlboro County took a devastating hit with 2 EF-4 tornadoes striking in less than an hour.  One of those grew to 2.5 miles wide and was on the ground for 45 miles.  The picture of the beam impaled in the ground below remains in Bennettsville as a monument to the outbreak.  

Jeffrey Bryant

We got .2 over about 2.5 hours.  I’ll take it at this point and be grateful.   

Looking like end of the month before any real chance of rain and even then it’s not a given.  

I am sure many of you have already seen this report.  I did not read it until this morning.  Those rainfall totals are absolutely insane.  The wind gusts were also bad for such a large area.

https://www.wyff4.com/article/hurricane-helene-final-report-released-damage-deaths/64240516

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hogtown’s official low was, indeed, 39 (11 BN). But today’s high was way up at 79, 3 AN! It looks less cool tonight, but low 40s are forecasted for Thu and Fri nights there.

7 of the next 10 days here forecast to have lows in the 30s.  Just spring in the South.  Will be begging for these cool days in a couple of months.  

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Lows are forecasted to get down into the low 40s way down in Hogtown the next two nights as well as at least one more night late week. 
 

Edit: They made it down at least to 39!
 

@pcbjr

Yep.  Been waiting on this March warmup but it's been a roller coaster at best and seems a lot more cool than warm.  Not good for my new grass.  

Visiting family in the upstate of SC today.  Sun broke through about 30 minutes ago and it’s feeling juicy out.  

Hope we get the rain but the severe can stay away

About as ominous as you will get from GSP this far out...

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

GFS with a 973MB bomb over the Midwest this weekend.  That'll create some wind and some weather headlines.  Edmond Fitzgerald storm was a 978.  

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I mean if you list off some of the most dynamic storms in North American history, sure

Yes.  That’s the point.  Most of the big dogs I recall happened after a warm or mild spell, especially Feb or March.  The Holy Grail March in the early 60s would certainly be an exception.     

I’m ok if there’s no more winter weather.  We had 3 minor events IMBY and we were in the mountains for an event.  Plus it’s been cold since December.  Need warm weather for the fairways to green up.  
 

However, keep in mind that major winter storms in the SE don’t usually occur in the middle of cold outbreaks.  
 

PD 1 it was 70 degrees one day before the storm. 
PD 2 it was 75 degrees on the Saturday before the big storm on Sunday

Superstorm 93 it was in the 70s all week before.  
 

March 1, 1980 it was in the 60s most of the week. 
etc.  

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

12z holds serve

In contrast with the regular Euro

Since we have missed out on a big dog, would love to see one good area wide storm during this time frame, then I will be ready for spring.  My fear is when it warms up, we will get dry.  

On my way from Gastonia to Belmont and I 85 getting snow covered in the center lanes.  Shoulders white.  

Nice little dusting this morning in West Lincoln and still coming down. 28 degrees