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Upstate Tiger

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    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Reading some stuff this morning about 1816, the year without summer.  Our current pattern is in no way similar to that global event brought on largely by the eruption of Mt Tambora.  
     

    Nevertheless, fascinating reading.  The New England states had frost every month that year and widespread snow in June.  Philadelphia had frost on the 4th of July and Augusta Ga had a low of 43.  Several other crazy anomalies that summer that are worth checking out.  

    • Like 8

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Highs Saturday and Sunday may not get out of the low 50's.  That would be 30 degrees below average and easily set records for low maximums.   The pool is opening this weekend at the country club.  Think we'll hold off a week.  Probably won't be difficult to get chairs though...

    • Like 3

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    What a nice Easter weekend in store for us in the Carolinas... 

    LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday: The alluded frontal boundary will sweep
into the CFWA on Thursday. Most model guidance keeps a narrow band
of showers and storms along the boundary as it pushes through
the area. Some scattered showers and storms may develop just
ahead of the main boundary, but the main focus will be along
the frontal axis. With a slight uptick in shear parameters and
global models/NAM depicting decent SBCAPE (750-1500 J/kg) values
ahead of the boundary, most should expect some form of organized
convection Thursday afternoon/evening, with a low-end severe
threat, but confidence remains low on this development. Either way,
temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above-normal for highs on
Thursday as most of the CFWA will settle under a stout warm sector.

Major changes will be underway behind the front Thursday night
as a strong surface high travels across the Central Plains and
Midwest Thursday and into the OH Valley Thursday night. As the
surface high sets up shop over the Mid-Atlantic early Friday, model
guidance continue to place the CFWA under a hybrid CAD. With the
flow aloft oriented from the southwest to northeast, deep moisture
will continue to traverse over the CAD dome. Expect temperatures
to dropoff nearly 20 degrees for highs on Friday compared to
Thursday. The frontal boundary will stall south of the area,
but moist upglide should keep PoPs elevated on Friday and through
much of the weekend. By the weekend, the surface high should slip
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast and transition into more of an
in-situ wedge, locking in the cold air through at least Sunday with
temperatures remaining 10-15 degrees below-normal over the weekend
for highs, with the potential for values to be even lower. Signs
of CAD erosion doesn`t appear in model guidance until late Sunday
into Monday as a shortwave trough pushes in from the Deep South
and a surface wave travels underneath before deepening off the
Southeast Coast during this timeframe. In this case, expect for
a very cloudy and gloomy end to the week with well below-normal
temperatures and continuous cloud cover through the end of the
period following the fropa late Thursday.
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Someone reminded me today that it was the anniversary of the March 28, 1984 Carolinas Tornado outbreak.  I was on the 4th floor of a dorm room in Rock Hill.  

    The thing I remember distinctly about that day was coming out of class in the afternoon and it was so hot and humid I could hardly breath.  It was one of the worst outbreaks ever in this region. 
     

    https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar281984EventReview

     

     

     

     

      
     

     

     

    • Like 1
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    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Severe threat still appears to be on schedule for Friday: 

    As of 225 PM EST Wednesday: A potent shortwave trough and closed
upper low will take on a negative tilt as it ejects out of the
Southern Plains Thursday night and lifts through the Tennessee
Valley and into Ohio on Friday. This will push a strong cold front
through the area that will bring a threat for severe thunderstorms.
A warm front will quickly lift north Thursday night into Friday
morning with the entire forecast area residing within an open warm
sector by the early afternoon hours. Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints
will be common within the warm sector, which should be sufficient to
support 500-1500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE across the area with the
highest values across the Piedmont. This is concerning as shear
profiles will be quite impressive. A 50-60kt low-level jet
translating across Georgia and the Carolinas will help sweep out
large cyclonically curved hodographs with 400-500 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH
and 40-45kts of 0-1km bulk shear. Deep-layer wind shear will also be
impressive on the order of 70-80kts. The resulting parameter space
will be more than supportive of all modes and hazards of severe
weather.

Details, however, will reside in the placement and magnitude of
forcing and where the best CAPE/shear balance sets up shop. A very
strong ~985mb surface low will lift into central Indiana with a pre-
frontal surface trough extending into northeast Georgia and the
Carolinas. While pressures will be low, the strongest surface
pressure falls and height falls aloft will be displaced just
northwest of the area. Early CAM/mesoscale guidance depicts a
scenario where forcing is just enough to instigate a cellular storm
mode while not being too strong for rapid upscale growth into a line
of convection. This solution would support a broken band of
supercells, which would yield a greater severe weather threat. The
other uncertainty is the CAPE/shear balance as warm mid-level
temperatures and poor lapse rates result in meager CAPE profiles.
Resulting updrafts could struggle with such a strong magnitude of
shear, but this could potentially be offset by stronger
forcing/kinematics. With that being said, the current slight risk
appears well placed across the area until details can get ironed
out. An upgrade to higher severe probabilities cannot be ruled out
either given the aforementioned parameter space. Winds will also be
gusty outside of the severe weather threat, especially during peak
heating/mixing within the warm sector. A high wind watch may
eventually be needed across the higher terrain in the mountains with
advisory level winds possible elsewhere.

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    It’s going to be interesting to see where trough axis sets up if the arctic intrusion occurs and if the storm track changes.  

    Already in the last week we’ve seen the storm track a little further south and East and the NE is actually seeing regular rounds of wintry precipitation.  

    It looks to edge even more further south next weekend with the mid Atlantic in play.  It’s been such an odd winter pattern, who knows what will happen. 

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

    The CPC agrees

    Screenshot_20230224-153011.png

    Everybody knows what a :weenie: I am.  But, unless we’re getting a 1993, 1980, 1971, or 1973 March repeat, give me some mid upper 60s and sun.  
     

    It’s been a terrible winter for weekend golfers. Record cold in March with no snow doesn’t excite me.  

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

     Maybe :lol: 

     I know my posts related to the stratosphere seem endless. I empathize. But keep in mind that we won't be two weeks past the only major SSW of this winter to date until about 240 hours from now. Only around then will we finally be at the "put up or shut up" time. I always thought it would be mild at least until either the last few days of Feb or first week of March. And we do have a real live strong -NAO on the model consensus starting within a week. So, I'm anxious to see what happens.

    Looks like the PNA tries to go positive but not until after the first week of March.  Two things you can always count on in March.  The NAO and Clemson basketball tanking...

    • Haha 6

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    Forecast highs are really coming down for tomorrow across a lot of piedmont areas due to increased cloud cover and slightly decreased heights with SER a little east. Some CAMs keep temps around 70 for the better part of the day. Today looks like a lock to get into the upper 70’s-lower 80’s south but it would be a significant miss tomorrow if temps stay around 70 from all the hype of the previous week.

    Well...if we don't officially reach 80, there's still a statistical chance for snow this year. :lol:

    • Like 1
    • Haha 4
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