Upstate Tiger

Temps in Canada look better with afternoons runs for week of Christmas.  This coincides with pattern change many have referenced.  Probably not going to help us with next weekend and midweek storm afterwords but we’ll see.  

Both overnight GFS runs show opportunities beginning next weekend.  The concern is the surface maps.  Canada is pretty much devoid of arctic air on the 06Z.   

18 in Cherryville this morning.  Pretty cold for the Piedmont in November.  

Lots of cold air building in Canada over the next 10-14 days...poised to move into the west it looks like 

Can't catch a break with the PNA, at least yet.

But hope springs eternal when it is only 6 hours until the next run...

From KGSP.  Will be a mess for early travelers, but we need the rain!  This should kick off an active couple of weeks.

 This high will remain
transitory into Mon and ridge down the east into the FA maintaining
near normal temperatures. Meanwhile, northern stream Pac energy
combines with the srn STJ over the West in a split flow regime,
which then creates a well defined and deep mlvl trof across the MS
Valley by Mon night. This trof will be highly dynamic as deep
layered shear nears 100 kts and combines with good GOM moisture flux
and creates a good set-up for sigfnt rainfall and possibly a few
organized thunderstorms across the srn half of the area. There`s
remains uncertainty with the amt of destabilization ahead of the
llvl forcing, but the model trends are going up with the ECMWF and
CMC models indicating arnd 200 J/kg of sbCAPE within the warm sector
during max heating. So a high shear / low CAPE strong storm
environment is looking more possible. Soundings also show very high
levels of 0-3 km helicity (>600 m2/s2), however, this is mostly due
to the aforementioned sfc wedge producing ne/ly at the sfc. But as
usual, the wedge bndry areas will suspect for more organized cell
development. In any case, this system looks to be a good precip
producer, the best in the last few months, with possibly 1.5 to 2.0
inches of rain over many areas thru Tue night. With high cloud cover
and ne/ly flow, highs Mon thru Wed will be held abt 5 degrees below
normal with lows averaging arnd normal.

If the 12 GFS is to be believed, we enter a very active period beginning next Tuesday through the end of the run.  Hoping it is right this time and we get the storms showing up on this run.  

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Thanksgiving fantasy.

Honestley, I'd take anything wet falling from the sky.

Looks like we could get a coastal low on Sunday.  Not a moment too soon.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday: Rainfall will continue on Saturday as the
surface front makes its way across the region...likely exiting to
the southeast by late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
Thereafter, deterministic guidance continues to depict it stalling,
whereupon a robust upper shortwave will arrive and instigate
cyclogenesis along the Carolina coast.  This`ll give us another shot
at some rainfall...with the new QPF forecast giving the SC zones
another 0.25" or more on Sunday and Sunday night (more than half an
inch per the 12z GFS, which ironically has trended toward stronger
cyclogenesis than the ECMWF after barely developing the feature at
all on the 06z cycle).  All things considered, while this rain won`t
quiet offset the ongoing drought, it`ll bring some much-needed
moisture to the region.

33 in Cherryville in the piedmont of NC.  No frost as winds were too brisk.  

Like seeing the CPC 8-14 day hazard map with the blue here

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Hmmm.  Another cold shot in two weeks after next weeks cold shot?

Finally saw our first patches of frost here in Cherryville this morning.  Wasn't widespread but rooftops and yards in the low lying spots were white.  

4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Gulf Cold

 

I was a senior in college in 87/88 and October was really cold in the upstate.  I think GW posted a correlation between BN October’s in EN and wintery precip.

I remember many days going to lunch with temps in the low to mid 50s.  We had snow flurries on Halloween and big snow in January.  
 

86/87 was a EN year too but don’t remember October being cold.  Of course JFM were really good that year.  

Finally starting to see some colder air filter into central and western Canada at the end of the month and beginning of October.  

20 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

It’s never right at this range with a winter storm but watch it be right with a cat 4 hurricane. 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yep, obvious huge difference between controlled fire and a wild fire!

  Meanwhile, per model consensus, parts of the SE US are quite possibly going to be threatened (W FL)/affected by a new TC forecasted to start forming in the NW Caribbean or SE GOM this weekend and then moving NE across FL and/or further up into the SE Tue-Wed. Folks should keep an eye on this just in case although I have to go all of the way back to storm #6 of 1880 to find an analog of this in late Aug or early Sep during El Niño:

Of course it’s a historic anomaly.  I’ll be at Myrtle Beach Saturday - Wednesday.  

Good analysis on Tennessee upcoming winter forum for those interested.  

In Myrtle Beach on 6th floor of hotel. Storms right on our doorstep.  Winds are making a creepy howling sound.  Told the wife I can’t imagine what the wind would sound like in here in a hurricane. 

9 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Ryan Hall is not really calling for a strong nino this year but it's still early.

Hope he's right Cary.

BTW, just saw the other thread on 23/24 winter predictions...

While we deal with this ongoing hot pattern...latest ENSO predictions increase chance for moderate to strong El Nino.  97/98 and 15/16 are analogs.  Neither were stellar years in the SE FWIW but it only takes one!

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance. In summary, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7].

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

12 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Dang looks like Asheville East is absolutely taking a beating this evening. Looks like a storm is just training there. 

Yeah, we were under it.  About 3.5 hours moderate to heavy rain.  Lost power for 2.5 hours.  Not complaining.  We were very dry.  

9 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Strong agreement on what could be the wettest week since 2018.

Figures.  Was supposed to play in a golf tournament tomorrow lol.  Can't complain too much.  We finally had a nice weekend.  

21 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said:

*looks at 72-73...


We ALL know what happened that year

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

Yep.  I love the 76-80 weak nino!  4 straight epic winters from my youth!  I believe that was a also a predominantly negative NAO.  

Looking ahead to fall and winter.  Odds are increasing of a moderate to strong El Nino in the late fall and winter.  Climatologically, not great for SE snow but has to be better than 3 years of Nina.  I have posted the strong to moderate El Nino years below.  There are some winners in the there for major storms...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

From KGSP AM AFD...can we ever get a flippin weekend with no rain?

 "Have higher chance PoPs the rest of the long term as
guidance is generally trending wetter this weekend into early next
week."