Upstate Tiger

Still liking the set up for the period around the 12th - 14th.  This overall set up has been pretty consistent on the GFS.  Why not go for 5 weekends in a row with wintry weather in the SE?  That would be rarity in my many years including the late 60's, 70's, and 80's.     

Light snow and 34 in Cherryville.  3rd weekend in a row with snow Imby 

24 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it. 

Trying to remember a time in my 46 years of SE winter watching that true arctic air was in place before we had a winter storm.  The only 1 event I recall where arctic air arrived 48 hours before the event (single digit lows and highs in 20's) was 1/13/82 storm.  Two other events I recall where arctic air arrived 24 before the storm was the great President's Day storm of 79 and the big overrunning storm of 1/7/1988.  Point well taken that with true arctic outbreaks in the SE, we generally need the cold air arrival to coincide with the low pressure development.  I might add that I have seen arctic air arrive at the same time as a storm such Jan 87 and March 80 where temps fell into the middle teens during the storm.   

The GSP AFD link is broken.  What did you guys do?????

1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

That’s all la la land but the point is after the 6-10 day warmup we could be in for another good set up. Definitely could look worse… and we are still not even to mid-February then… Mid-February has always been a great time for winter storms here historically. 

Burrel, was about to post the same thing.  Ridge looks to build back after 1st week of February with cold still in Canada.  It will have to come south and east.  Something tells me we haven't seen the last of winter 22.  On a positive note, maybe I can a round of golf in now.  It's been about 3 weeks since I have been able to play.  

15 hours ago, msuwx said:

Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January?

Agree.  The 06 had another winter storm next weekend in the SE.

29 and light snow in Cherryville. Happy for all the board members in central and eastern NC and SC who look to cash in tonight.  Maybe a week from tonight we all can cash in!!! 

Euro 12Z for next Friday.  

12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

967 LOL:

Borderline Cat 3.  

Light rain mixed with snow here in Cherryville and 36 a few minutes ago. Now just light rain.  Looks like the radar is really starting to blossom all the way back to the upstate.  Has to bode well for those northeast of here.  

According to long term GFS, heights look to fall again in the west the first week of February so looks like we have another week to 10 days under the current pattern to score another storm in the SE before heights rise.  With the unpredictability over the last couple of weeks, I don't think anyone can say with any degree of certainty what is going to happen over the next two weeks.  Good news for winter lovers, is the cold remains across Canada in the long term poised to come south and east with with any height falls in the central and eastern U.S.    

No less than 4 chances for winter storms showing up on the GFS over the next 2 weeks starting next Wednesday.  

There will certainly be an abundance of cold air on this side of the continent over the next 10 days for anything that develops in the SE. 

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

GSP still has wintery weather for the area Friday into Friday night.

As of 215 pm EST Tuesday: The pattern will get active once again
through the short-term period as a series of northern stream waves
dive southeast through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into
Thursday and amplify a positively tilted trough from the Upper
Midwest to the central Plains. The trough will help to drive a moist
cold front into the southern Appalachians Wednesday night, which
will slip southeast of the area through Thursday. Anticipate mainly
liquid ptypes with the fropa, except at the higher peaks and
increasingly along the Tennessee border in brief, post fropa
northwest flow. Since the highest QPF over the western mountains
should be one-half inch or less, this should not be sufficient for
hydro issues to develop, even with some mountain snow melt.

It has become questionable how much of a lull will develop between
the cold fropa and redeveloping upglide over the stalling boundary.
A consensus is building that a sharpening upper jetlet may develop
along the southern Appalachians Thursday night through Friday. The
amplifying upstream trough will be potent, but now appears less
likely to cut off west of the Appalachians and more likely to get
picked up by the northern stream. The main uncertainty during the
Thursday night to Friday period is how vigorous any surface waves
become along the stalled boundary draped to our southeast. The ECM
has stronger development and pulls more moisture, and thereby QPF,
over the region Friday, while the GFS has a more muted response. The
ECMWF has trended slightly toward the GFS, but the GEFS ensembles
have plenty of snowy members still. Will use an ensemble approach to
profiles and keep mainly snow across the region, but with a snow,
sleet, and freezing rain mention for the southeast third. This will
be introduced into the HWO. Temps will be shaded below guidance as
cold air damming develops Friday from 1040 mb high pressure over New
England. The wintry precipitation will continue into the early
extended period.

9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough.  The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind.

The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 

12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. 

 

Yep, Burrel that's a great summation.  Seems we've seen energy get left in the SW often over the last decade.  Euro will be very telling today.  

Cherryville mostly sleet and has dropped to 23 with 10 degree wind chill.  

24 degrees here in Cherryville with sleet mixing in with snow.  Several inches on the ground.  Hearing pingers bounce of windows. 

41/27 in Cherryville here in the western Piedmont.  DP has continued to drop all morning on a stiff NE wind. 

From GSP AFD 

"In classic Carolina winter storm fashion, cold air will be
reinforced, if not enhanced Sunday morning by developing classical
(or at least strong hybrid) cold air damming, as 1030-ish mb surface
high pressure moves into New England beneath confluent upper flow."

I know some are disappointed but for the older ones on the board, this is a classic SE winter storm that we experienced so often in the 60's, 70's, and 80's.  Unless you were in the mountain, you got a few inches of snow, followed by sleet, and then freezing rain.  You wake up the next day to a winter wonderland with the pines all encrusted in snow and ice.  

Looks like an arctic outbreak after next weekend's storm on the 20th/21st.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

So snow for NC, upstate SC gets ice, everywhere else rain?

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Thx brotha. Here's my prelim thoughts. HP orientation favors Ice over upstate SC and southern NC. I think the gefs has a good handle thus far on the setup.

 

 

Thanks for posting Hky.  Been some talk of a March 1980 analog.  Saturday March 1, 1980, the upstate had a raging sleet storm all day with temps in the 20's while NC got hammered with snow.  The upstate did pick up 4" of snow that Saturday night on the back side that made for good sledding.  

One thing is for sure, the GFS has been pretty consistent with the monster storm around the 23rd and a really cold outbreak to follow.  It’s been showing this for several days with little deviation.  

If this happens, they will be wearing 2 pairs of pajamas in the Cherryville Walmart...

10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It only took three days to turn it into wintertime fun  

Be patient low elevation peeps.  There should be some opportunities over the next 2-4 weeks.