hawkeye_wx

My memory sucks, so I really don't remember a lot of weather events from past years. However, here are a few I remember. January-February 2019: Snowiest 5-week period on record (44") Late January 2019: Record cold (-30º at the airport) Winter of 2013-14: I remember it being brutally cold after several snow events. Groundhog Day storm and another GHD/Superbowl storm earlier in the decade. They weren't huge storms here, but it's about the best we can do. Morch and the severe drought (2012?) It was a generally wet decade. June was an incredibly wet month this decade. The entire decade produced only TWO 10" snowstorms. That's it. This is the ultimate nickel & dimer climate. It's not that difficult for storms to produce 10" of snow, but here it certainly is.

Cedar Rapids also has a decent shot at 60º today.

Moline just hit 60º.

I'd take a repeat of last winter. December was blah and the first week of January was a blowtorch, but then the hammer dropped and we had the snowiest five week period on record. Winter ended after those five weeks, but it was an amazing period.

Yikes! That's pretty awful. Positive everything, MJO looping right back into the warm phases. Let's hope not.

12z Euro.... boom

Latest three 12z Euro runs.... total cave.

The other models are now caving to the GFS... the euro overnight and the ICON, Canadian, and UK this morning.

Of course, the Euro decides to shake things up tonight. Here is the shift from last night's run to tonight's for the end of the month.

The GFS is the only model showing the phased cutter. The ICON, Canadian, UK, and Euro all look about the same.

The warmest air aloft is over Iowa today, but the surface temp is lagging yesterday by several degrees.

I'd love to get blasted by a 16" blizzard as much as the next guy, but I don't mind the snowless December or mild Christmas week. The older I get, the more I feel, "whatever happens, happens". I'll just enjoy not having to go out in the cold to clean driveways. At some point we'll get some good snow and cold again, and when we do I'll enjoy that.

00z Euro

12z Euro

12z UK

12z GFS

The 3k NAM is a good two counties south of the 12k NAM.

12z euro

12z UK ... It has light accumulation up to the I-80 corridor, but it's not a vigorous system.

Yes, the UK is a big improvement tonight, although still south of Iowa. The energy is much sharper as it ejects into the central US. It hits Kansas and Missouri solidly, then heads ene toward Toledo while weakening some.

The weak clipper dropped 1.3" on my yard this morning. A few places got up to 2" of fluff. Models had this subtle system nailed for a few days.

UK is a nothingburger, suppressed south of the subforum.

Euro not on the same planet as GFS as we head toward Xmas. It shows a very benign pattern.

I picked up 0.3" from the line. Through November 11th I received 11.1" of snow. Over the last month I've received 0.7".

Don't know.