hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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I was shocked when I saw the recon map. I've never seen them do a center fix over any land. Halfway through Cuba the extrapolated pressure is 947 mb.... pretty impressive.
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The current recon plant's final pass found 961 mb. There has been a bit of a bend/wobble to the nw while this plane has been out there. Every bit of movement to the west of north matters for the long-term track. The 18z Euro moved into Cuba due north of where the center is now.
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Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on? Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core. Edit: The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.
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Accounting for a 21 kt wind, the latest recon center dropsonde measured 962 mb.
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Regarding storm surge in Tampa Bay, how much of a difference would it make if Ian's center is 50 miles offshore vs 100 miles offshore?
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The satellite presentation is impressive this morning, quite a change from 24 hours ago.
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The new recon pass suggests the pressure is about the same as it was when the last plane left hours ago.
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I've been watching the COD meso loops all day. It's a nice site.
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Oddly, the extrapolated pressure on the new recon pass is several mb higher than the first one. The center also seems to have jumped west.
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The Euro only maxes the intensity at 969 mb this run, a good 10-15 mb weaker than last night.
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Because there is very little convection over the center, you can now see the well-defined surface vortex on the visible loop. It just needs a blob of intense convection to fire over it.
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Recon is finally finding an actual surface center, but now it's struggling to produce core convection in a light shear environment.
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Recon is finding the surface flow pretty similar to what it was early Saturday. There is a weak center at 14.6N, south of all the convection. Ian still has a lot of work to do before it can strengthen.
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Recon just made the first pass through the convection and found more garbage at the surface. They will have to look farther west.
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The mid-level swirl from earlier convection is making it look better than it is. So far this evening the convection has been ok, but nothing impressive. Maybe it will blow up more overnight. Recon will be in there shortly to try to find a surface center. It's possible recon will find nothing more than a weak mess like this morning. We'll know in a couple hours.
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Recon finding another wind shift wnw of the first one. Maybe it is the same one.
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Recon is finding only weak slop at the surface, certainly no well-defined center... a good reason why models are not ramping up the organization til Sunday.
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This run barely makes it to the coast before curving back north along the coast. If it trends any farther west it will remain over water, like other models are showing, and weaken.
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The Euro still has rapid deepening on approach, at least until the last few hours. It turns nne toward landfall just before the dry air rushing in from the nw can get into the system.
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Recon just found another weak surface center/wind shift down below 13ºN. It's a bit of a mess at the surface.
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Yeah, but look at what happens once the dry air gets pulled all the way around the storm. By the time it hits land the core is gone... totally dried out.
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Yep. The dry air gets pulled into the circulation and chokes the storm. It hits the Florida peninsula over 50 mb weaker than it was over the central gulf.
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The GFS is powerful up through the halfway point in the gulf, but at that point a big dump of dry air is about to crash down into the northern gulf region. Expect significant weakening.
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The GFS is so far west it doesn't even track the center over Cuba anymore.... goes through the Yucatan channel, out into the open gulf, where it will certainly miss the trough and slow way down.
