hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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984 mb, wow! I was not expecting that. Frankly, the core convection is a bit meager. The color IR presentation isn't great. However, the visible loop shows it has nice organization. It could take off tonight if it can fire more widespread deep convection over/around the center.
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Nice... that pressure is well below what I thought they'd find.
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The 12z HWRF also continues to show only modest strengthening while Delta is in the Caribbean. One would think it could ramp back up in future runs.
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Morning models disagree about shear/weakening in the northern gulf. The GFS and UK show little if any weakening. The HWRF and Euro show rapid weakening.
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Oddly, the HWRF and HMON have gone much weaker again the last two runs.
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18z HWRF and HMON are still showing rapid deepening in the nw Caribbean. The HWRF drops it from 993 mb to 949 mb in 21 hours, beginning late Monday evening.
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If this system does become a hurricane and threaten the US gulf coast, the water over the northern gulf is no longer the fuel it was when Sally traversed the area. The image is from Ryan Maue on Twitter.
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The HWRF and HMON are really revving it up, to <970 mb, before reaching western Cuba or the Yucatan channel.
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92L has developed a decent circulation. Better convection and a decrease in shear over the 24-36 hours should allow it to organize. The new GFS is more robust, strengthening it to hurricane in the gulf with a landfall on the central gulf coast in a steady/weakening phase.
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We don't see many 980 mb tropical storms. The visible loop sure looks like a hurricane. Another recon was on the way, but there was no way they'd get down there in time so they turned around.
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This system is impressive. It appears to be rapidly strengthening as it is about to move inland.
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New dropsonde says 983 mb.
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This could have been quite a storm with one more day over water.
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The current upper level flow is quite favorable. It's just lacking a core.
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I was just thinking that this is clearly a TD. It'll be interesting to see how quickly this can rev up before reaching the northeast Yucatan coast.
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The 12z Euro has Rene meandering around just north of the MDR, which leads to the new system getting sucked up into the weakness, so no threat to the Caribbean.
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12z GFS has a rapidly-strengthening hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in a week. I noticed last night's Euro had the system there, but much weaker.
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Obviously, it's a long way out, but this morning's Euro has a modest system traversing the Caribbean, then it begins to turn more nw and strengthen at the end of the period as the eastern US trough erodes the subtropical ridge.
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The gulf system certainly has the appearance of a disturbance that is destined to become a tropical storm before moving into Texas.
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Earlier today, Amphan was tracking more northward, well east of the Euro, but the track has been nnw for the last several hours. -
The Euro and UK now take the Bay of Bengal system a bit farther west, at least scraping the Indian coast with the center. The GFS still has a n/nne track into Bangladesh.
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Models are showing a powerful cyclone hitting the northern Bay of Bengal coast next week. There has not been one in that area in quite a long time. That area used to be ground zero for huge death totals back in the 20th century.
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I went to Menards late this morning. The place was packed. About half the customers were wearing a mask.
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We should be getting a lot more data for this country over the next couple weeks(positive/negative tests, fatalities, etc). If we start getting more data that suggests the death rate is similar to the flu, or even a bit higher, there will be immense pressure to start sending people back to work.
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Obviously, we won't know how all of this will play out until it does, but my biggest fear continues to be the economic devastation we are inflicting on the country. If this goes on for more than a few weeks, it could get very bad.
