hawkeye_wx

We got a little rain yesterday, enough to wet the surface, but then overnight a nice soak boosted my total to 0.60".

We have underperformed a fair amount this weekend. On Friday the NWS had 91º in the forecast for both Sat/Sun. However, yesterday we only hit 86º and today we are stuck at 83º.

Today was the first breezy day in a long time. It seems like the last month has been dead calm almost every day. It has been extremely warm, but it's very different than the heat a couple months ago. If the sun goes behind a cloud or the wind kicks up, it's suddenly comfortable. Also, by late afternoon it's already cooling off. By evening, it feels amazing. There is a big construction project by my house that has been ongoing since July, in which tens of thousands of yards of soil has been excavated and moved around. They have been very lucky to have such dry weather over the last several weeks. They are about to start work on the end of my street. Hopefully, they can get it done before the weather becomes more active.

Wow, Humberto has had an epic collapse. In just a couple days it has gone from cat 5 to an exposed vort.

Imelda has a great outflow channel to the north, but it appears to be fighting dry air. Convection within the core is looking a bit ragged this evening.

Recon is finally into Humberto. The pressure is 929 mb. There are a couple wind maxima and the max wind on the first pass was only 120 kts flight level.

It appears Imelda is fighting some dry air getting pulled in from the west.

The average high drops below 70º tomorrow. The forecast has mid to upper 80s for the next seven days.

This thing really got stuck in the Bahamas, and has been slow to develop. It has barely moved in the last 24 hours.

The T# is up to 7.0, which is 160 mph. This certainly looks near cat 5.

I'm still not seeing anything in the recon plans regarding flying into Humberto. As far as I know/remember, they always fly into hurricanes within range, as Humberto clearly is.

Models have consistently been predicting that Humberto would slowly organize today into early Friday, but then late Friday the shear would drop and the storm would begin to strengthen more rapidly and accelerate westward.

Another wild 18z Euro run.... has a 966 mb and a 933 mb hurricane off the coast.

The visible loop confirms 93L has a well-defined surface vortex. It just needs to exit the shear zone.

This is going to be wild. Two hurricanes right next to each other off the southeast US coast? I've been tracking the tropics since the late 1980s and I can't remember anything like this.