mahantango#1

I think you just called it!

By Wednesday evening, broad southeast flow in the wake of retreating high pressure will keep cold air locked in east of the mountains as a warm nose of overrunning precipitation overspreads the region. The aforementioned band of snow will gradually lift northeast ahead of a broad area of low pressure moving in from the Ohio Valley with a transition to sleet and eventually freezing rain during the overnight hours. Model soundings have indicated that the layer of cold air at the surface could be a little bit deeper than previous runs, indicating potential for a longer period of sleet overnight before an inevitable transition to freezing rain. QPF amounts are generally 0.25-0.5" along and north of I-80, >0.75" in the Laurels, and 0.5-0.75" east of I-99 and south of I-80. Temperatures are progged to rebound considerably Thursday afternoon, though temperatures soaring into the 50s appears less and less likely as the event draws closer. It is difficult to scour out the cold air after these events, so trending below guidance seems prudent. Even still, highs in the 40s areawide should help most, if not all, of the ice melt during the afternoon and evening before cooler air filters in from the north as another cold front moves in. -- End Changed Discussion --

Bring it on and hope they cripple the region with heavy wet snow.

This is a different kind of winter as compared to maybe the previous 5 . It wouldn't take much to make this an epic 2nd half of winter. A good snowstorm, a good icestorm and near record cold.

✳️ALERT ✳️ 2nd HALF OF WINTER LOOKING SERIOUS ...POSSIBLY SEVERE ... ➡️ Do NOT be fooled by this mild across much of the eastern CONUS FEB 3-9 ⬅️ MORE DETAILS IN THE NEW EDITION OF THE NEXT 3 WEEKS NEWSLETTER ON MONDAY There is no doubt now that the PV - Polar Vortex IS going to undergo a significant stretching and potentially SPLIT into 2 sections. Some of the models split the PV into two distinct centers while others elongated the PV and then bring it back into an oval or elliptical shape (as opposed to a tight closed Circular PV) by the end of February. In either case it represents a significant change so AFTER THIS WEEK FEB 3 -9 of Spring like conditions in the eastern US, there is no doubt in my mind that the winter is going to come roaring back sometime after February 9/10. Indeed the last two runs of the operational European are picking up on two different threats in the Middle Atlantic and Ohio valley. First it is Rain changing to snow behind the strong cold front on February 9/10 in MD DEL most of VA eastern KY and eastern WV. This is followed by a potentially major Ohio Valley /Mid-Atlantic snowstorm on February 11- 12. Interestingly this event has shown up now in the last three runs of the operational European. The change is driven that the -EPO (aka the ALASKAN BLOCK ) that which is currently in the western Alaska. As the PV begins to split... the BLOCK/ -EPO shifts eastward so that it builds into NW Canada by next weekend. At the same time the North Atlantic Ridge over Great Britain builds West into Iceland and Greenland by day 10 resulting in a very strong -NAO/ - AO combination or couplet. (East Coast snow lovers rejoice) These two changes force a steady shift of the strong Ridge in the eastern US into the western Atlantic by February 14. But even more impressive is the fact that there is quite a bit of model data that suggests the Alaskan nw t Canada BLOCK/ -EPO is going to build into the Arctic region at the same time the Greenland Ridge - NAO intensifies and expands. This creates what is known as LINKAGE and it would force the entire PV far to the south that possibly as south as James Bay Canada.! Brrrrrr This would trigger another prolonged and significant Arctic air mass outbreak much like we saw in January developing across the central and eastern CONUS mainly north of Interstate 40 by the middle of February.

Phil says 6 more weeks of winter! Happy Groundhog Day!!

.24 rain yesterday. 33 with wind starting this morning.

Thanks! I know of a good friend got diagnosed with covid 23 days ago and now this week she has been diagnosed with the flu. She commented she can't win.

Yes we are but slowly. I endured multiple nights of fever ranging from 101-103.7. Wife had to get x ray of chest yesterday now she has Pneumonia. Dr. prescribed antibiotics for this yesterday. This was a nasty one this year.

Haven't been on here much this week. Wife got flu type A, was trying to take care of her, then I got the same thing she had. So it's been a rough week. That flu really knocks you down. And wife for at least 10 years but possibly more has been getting the annual flu shot and this years was to cover a broard spectrum of flu virus.

36 this morning.

Nws could have done this cluster f**k graphic better.

Crazy Temps, My son lives about 3 miles as the crow flies he has a temp of 24.5 and I have a temp of 7.3

Hang in there in a few more months!

Looks like a windy time coming up. Today Sunny, with a high near 39. Light southwest wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday A chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow showers after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. West wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

It is 7.5 this morning.

19 here.

Must be the ice on the river.

My low was 19.

My average temperature for the month of January so far is 22.2

According to DT the warm up will only last February 1-8 than its back to winter part 2. That a far cry from a 2 to 3 week warm up from about a week ago.

Today's high was 35.1