mahantango#1

Weather World on to something near the end of July?

Yes I think I posted it. At this point its a crap shoot until we see it on radar (if there is anything) later today or tonight. But its still interesting. Just hoping for a great lightning show after dark.

What model are you placing your $1000.00 bet on?

The half to three quarter i'll take. I just hope we don't get the hard downpours.

Is that all for tonight? NWS makes it sound like its all night till the wee hours of the morning.

Sounds like it could be an active and noisy night. Hope there is a good lightning show tonight. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 5am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Patchy fog after 2am. Low around 71. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 558 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 PAZ004-036-056-057-059-063>066-161000- Warren-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 558 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible from late this afternoon through tonight. Heavy rain is expected from some of the thunderstorms and may lead to flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain are possible on Sunday. The rain may lead to flooding. Heavy rain is again possible later Monday and Monday night. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PWAT does reach 2" in the SE late today per latest HREF mean values. Heavy rain will, again today, depend on having repeated cells pass over the same area. Storm motions should be generally W-E or slightly N of E. FFG is lowest in the middle and upper Susq. They are gradually lowering with each day as we have rain streak across the area. Have considered a flash flood watch. Will continue to consider one, mainly for the SE and EC counties, where the latest model trends place the heaviest rain/storms this evening. Looks like there should be a fair amount of time for the dayshift to further diagnose/divine where it might be best to post one (if at all). As the evening continues, the storms will likely cluster over the SE close to the old boundary and along the gradient of 1.75-2" PWAT which will be working northward. Forcing swings by during the middle of the night, clearing out the west of any showers/storms there in the evening, and eventually pushing most of the the storms out of the Susq Valley and to the east of the CWA before sunrise. Will continue to mention heavy rain in the wx grids. SPC MRGL risk is drawn over most of the area, mainly for wind, but a small risk of hail and tornadoes is painted for the Alleghenies/NW as the shear will be better there. Newest (06Z) NAM delays exit of the storms to the east, and is more aggressive with rainfall on Sunday than the GFS. With the rainfall later today and tonight being heaviest in the E, and the bulk of rain expected to be in the E again on Sunday, the flooding risk will continue. It will likely be foggy again tonight, esp if clearing becomes complete in areas (W). Temps stay AOA normals thru the period. Sunday may be a few degs cooler than Sat and Mon.

Yes that's true! Doesn't look promising at all.

Hopefully you'll cash in the next few days on beneficial rainfall. I hope you get 2 in or more till Monday.

Thats quite a difference between your location and mine.

Glad I passed up on yesterdays rain. It was very close to me last eve. It gave my potatoes another day to dry out.

I thought the dewpoints were supposed to drop? Mine is 67.6 @2:38pm

Same here, the grass and weeds are growing exceptionally well.

I am up to 4.37 on the Ambient and 4.67 on the Accurite for the month. Both gauges are accurate with light and moderate rain. But when it pours the Accurite totals are more. So I guess i';ll have to put out my standard gauge to compare them when it pours. The rain is welcome but I at least should have a few more days to dry out untill the next bout comes. Hopefully you'll get more later this week. I'll pass on the next rain chance.

So we'll have to wait for better model consensus till then.

Will there be a threat of heavy rain again later this week, or has the threat diminished?

Very thick fog this morning visibility less then 200 feet

Maybe it wouldn't be so bad, but my garden is in the lowland next to the creek. The rain we had this evening, the water was setting on the top of garden and running off. Maybe I should rephrase that statement. An inch of rain is good for the week for the garden, but not 2 inches. I'm very afraid my potatoes will rot in the ground if I keep getting 2 inches a week. But the weather will do what it will do.

Had a thunderstorm an hour or so ago. Poured down picked up .24. I think I don't need any rain for about 2 weeks (at least where I live.) Things need to dry out for a little bit. I hope the less fortunate on rainfall receive some.

64 this morning. that flooding near Reading yesterday looked insane!

I'm afraid my potatoes will rot in the ground with all this rain.

Just short of 8.50 inches of rain since June 1st..

Just seen the warning go out I border Northumberland county

Picked up a quick. 39 in of rain from a severe warnd storm. Must have hailed close by, temp dropped 8 degrees. It got really cool air after the storm.

I thought by now we would have a good consensus on the model runs, as it is only a few hours away. I hope everyone gets some beneficial rain and no gully washers.