mahantango#1

JB this morning: While the MJO is shown in the charts to be in the null phase. The current way we get there is has a strong vv pulse coming through the Indian Ocean that is associated with phases 3/4. and those are very warm in December. And this looks correct to me. But its coming and going fast and that cold is building in Canada. It collapses and in the 10-15 we are back to a phase 8/1 look. So I would expect a rapid response back the other way after that So I think Paul Roundy has a good idea here and after I got a chance to look, I agree with his assessment

Truth, somewhere along the way it all went wrong.

Hoping next summer features at least 2 weeks straight mid 90's with dp in mid 70's.

Sounds like uncertainty as if will it happen at all. Stay tuned.

I remember those years 1989 I think after December the cold went away if I remember right. 1976 the cold continued until February. I remember walking halfway across the Susquehanna River on the ice.

Ice on the creek this morning that formed overnight. Reminds me of December 1976 and 1989.

JB said this this morning: I am keying on the WPO and the MJO. There is alot of warm air in the pattern day 11-20, but the WPO favors it getting cut down coming to the east. In fact opposite models, there should be an eastern trough week 3 and dont be surprised if the models head that way. Its a rare an unholy alliance, but I think the GEFS is the better model here and I am leaning on it Somethings gotta give, Either the big telleconnections are wrong or the temperature pattern on the euro is overwarmed

3.4 here, might drop a little more till sunrise. Coldest reading yet this season.

Stay warm, at least there is not 2 feet of snow on the ground with 40mph winds at these temps.

DROUGHT MONITOR (12/04/2025) Minor changes to the latest drought monitor in the Harrisburg area. The majority of the area is still under the "Abnormally Dry" conditions as we continue to remain below average for 2025. IMPORTANT - the Drought Monitor only includes data up to 7 AM Tuesday. The data is reviewed, and the map will be released to the public (and the News 8 Storm Team) on Thursday morning. Any rainfall that occurred after 7 AM on Tuesday (no matter how heavy or light it is) is not included in that respective week's update. We will need to wait until next week's update to include any rainfall after Tuesday morning.

8.4 this morning, coldest so far this season.

Took notice I got down to 18 last night, coldest so far this season. I wonder how low I'll drop tonight?

Ambient ws5000

Hopefully it's not late in the 4th quarter around the 2 minute warning that ole man winter decides to throw a hail-mary.

We been through this before. Wasn't last year too we experienced this also?

And just over a week ago, almost everyone agreed and the models pointed out a good pattern for snow. Now nothing except cold.

JB said he expects that wave Friday night to come further north then what is forecasted now. But he didn't say how far north he expects to go.