JB this morning:
While the MJO is shown in the charts to be in the null phase. The current way we get there is has a strong vv pulse coming through the Indian Ocean that is associated with phases 3/4. and those are very warm in December.
And this looks correct to me. But its coming and going fast and that cold is building in Canada. It collapses and in the 10-15 we are back to a phase 8/1 look.
So I would expect a rapid response back the other way after that
So I think Paul Roundy has a good idea here and after I got a chance to look, I agree with his assessment