Jonger
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Everything posted by Jonger
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This looks like a 3 to 5 inch storm. We lost our moisture....my usual concern.
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This thing is 6 inch top..... moisture falling apart in typical Midwest style. #toofarfromtheocean
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We got screwed didn't we?
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New slides put on last night.. Bloody hands and lot's of swearing. Now, we see who has something to ride on Friday. No matter what I get locally, I'll be trailering out of here anyhow. Lol
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That gap in the system burned us. Saginaw might get 12 inches, Monroe might get 12 inches and Lansing, Howell, Pontiac..... 4 to 8. We'll see on Thur or Friday when the final storm report comes out. Radar could fill in and make this all moot, but I wouldn't bank on it.
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We'll probably end up with 6 inches, but areas to the north and south will do better because of that north/south stream split pivoting over my area.
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This is my concern.
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Radar looks very broken up in the conveyer along the precip shield that's going to pass over my area. If I hit 6 inches it will be a miracle unless that fills in.
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What radar are you using.....this has been hard to track due to DTX outage.
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DTX radar is down.....we're going to be flying blind for this storm. It sucks they did maintenance now and not during the summer.
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I just want in more on Wave #2.
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Come on guys....we need more models posted, I'm dying here. Need MORE info.
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Pretty good model consensus right now. The NAM, GFS, EURO, GEM..... all put the exact same QPF output down for me.
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Nov 2015 was the only one here. It's possible I'm missing one....if you find maps proving otherwise, post them.
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We'll end up with 6 to 10.....but the 10 has to all happen on the first wave. The forecast in that time period is 6 to 9. There will be no second wave here, so 6-10 will be the warning figure.
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We get teased a lot here, but for whatever reason....the storm trajectory required for a big storm here tends to result in less moisture to work with or we're too far north. Tough to explain, but after 42 years.....I could count the double digit storm tallies on 2 hands....and almost 1 hand. If I cracked double digits more than 5 times in 40 years I would be shocked.
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There's a reason just about every "storm" ends up around 6 inches here. It's just what we do. Expect 6 to 10. The warning will probably be adjusted down to that as well. Just watch.
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There's no decent riding in the lower in my opinion right now. I'm hoping someone in SW Mich scores 8+.
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Seems like the conveyor dries out a bit more.
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Who's doing inch by inch NAM rollout coverage?
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For whatever reason the NW flow has been missing. It's always straight north now....... Good for Ludington, but not Gaylord or Kalkaska.
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I really want to see good snow in west Michigan to ride my sled Friday. We have no trails around here....just a few rec areas.
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Probably Tyrone Twp. I'm in Marion.
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Didn't realize you were from Fenton, we are pretty much on the same team here.
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That would be all-time level snows here....and that's why it won't happen.
