RogueWaves

Damn! nearly 2.5x my measly 5.6" score.

Yep, screw holed big time: 0700 AM SNOW 3 N CANTON 42.35N 83.48W 02/03/2022 M4.1 INCH WAYNE MI COCORAHS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. If I run with that number, Nov 27th retains "top dog" at 4.2" LOL, autumn -> winter at my new digs!

IWX going 2-6" NW to SE across their CWA, with stiff winds and powdery snow. Today should be a true storm day anywhere outside of the cities where the winds have their way.

That's a 9.5" for Marshall. Wonder how Harry did in BC? Looks like Lansing was the winner at 12.9" that's a nice storm for SMI non-LES locale. Confirmation on the Marshall number via GRR's table of winners. Looks like the same person on the north side of town that reports in bigger storms. The one that had the 11.6" report during the 2016 storm when Marshall was in the bullseye.

So, per that I'm firmly in the 4-6" region. The CONUS map has a 5.1" a bit north of here. I suppose we may have nibbled our way to the 5" mark after we got home at 7:30 but the compaction of the lower layer, large puddles soaking up more on my sidewalks, etc it just isn't 5" out there on the level. More like 3.5 or so by eyeballing. Basically, it just restored the amount we had OTG from the clippers. Wash, rinse, repeat on our snow depth here this winter. Once a pattern establishes for a winter, they're very stubborn. Depth here has been stuck in a 2-4" rut it just can't seem to break free of.

Lots of trees where there's not buildings around here, so it's not open much and I've yet to see true drifting. Took my wife to the store about 7 tho, and noticed the stiff winds blowing the snow more sideways in the lights of businesses like car dealers, etc. Also snow blowing off roof tops. Certainly looked the "storm" part this evening, but then it was done an hour later, lol. Had that continued for several hours, perhaps this could've redeemed itself from the failed storm trash heap, lol.

That map from 7:44 pm

Work office is in Livonia (not far east of Plymouth township line) where it was just plain rain when I arrived at 6:30. I don't have a window I can see from my desk, but there are plenty to look out whenever I get up for anything and I'd say changeover occurred between 7:30 and 8. It was very slow, not a sudden white-out of huge flakes or anything dramatic. I came home for lunch about 12:30 so 4 hours later and only brushed about 3/4" of sloppy stuff off my car, while the parking lot was more like 1/2" during that 5 hours! Poor rates, small flakes, and a temp of 32.5F was just "one tick" above white rain. One of the lamest excuses for snowstorm I've ever witnessed tbh.

Hawkeye posted a map showing the entire CONUS storm totals to that time-stamp. It had the 4" line running right through here and was very accurate. At that point, it showed 3-4 south down your way. Guessing you continued to snow after map time, while we were pretty much finished at that point. Hence the differences.

Yeah, Saginaw's got a weird winter climo thing going. They're on the far northern edge of the SMI zone, so the storm centered in the zone will be tapering off up there. But occasionally, they score really big like that storm in 2008 that dropped 17 or 18". They will get help via Saginaw Bay when the NE winds are rocking and that has helped them put up huge numbers back in '67/'73/'76/'78/'84. When I was a teen/young adult back in the 80's living in Genesee, those mild winters 87/88/89/90 we'd get like 5" while they'd get 10". Was a definite gradient across that roughly 45 miles back then. They had a great winter in 04-05 too, with many storms, deep snow cover, that lasted almost into April. I was living up there at that time with fam.

So somehow, down river scored a couple more inches than here? I swear, Canton-Plymouth-Livonia's the new Macomb with every compass direction out-scoring me. Can we just move onto spring already. This is a mega-annoying place to be this winter.

Congrats on an over-achiever storm up there! Drove thru on 23 Saturday and snow at that point may have been a bit less than down here. Hard to say as the freeway median is notoriously a poor example of surrounding areas. I'm recently relocated to the west burbs (Plymouth-Canton) but seriously considering moving up to Fenton when my lease is up this July. Not because this is "Shaft City" when it comes to snowstorms. I have a sister in Fenton and other fam up that way (Genesee and Saginaw counties). Plus, my sister's apt is like an expensive custom-built home for 2/3rds the rent I'm paying. I'd be back to a sizeable commute, but other than the occasional day like today, mostly it's not a bad one if I stay away from the 96/275/696 triangle of congestion. After many years with often large commute distances, I have/am enjoying having just an 8 mile drive to work. But it's hardly worth "the rent", especially for this drafty old place. Fenton's a nice little community similar to Marshall where we moved from. I like the upscale touristy downtown. It also has all the chain stuff out by US23 that we didn't have in little tiny Marshall so there's another bonus.

Call it "warm nose" or last minute bump N. DTX's write-up this past evening (2/2) plainly said, the good forcing with higher qpf ended up 2 to 3 counties N of where the models said it would be for the past "X" number of days. The models were blind to this sudden over-achieving bubble of warmth. This may be the biggest screwing of the pooch by models since Dec 2012's bliz when the Euro insisted the SLP would traverse south of The Mitt over to KTOL. Was just laser-locked on that solution (until the SLP ran right up into SWMI and on top of our heads). As for inflated Kuchera maps, WxBell's Euro product seems to be the biggest offender in that category, one time showing a 29" total here for the Metro. Ofc, that's highly suspect knowing the climo and Big Dog history so easy to discount that/those maps. But, GFS was routinely showing this region (W Wayne) around 19 or 20". While still a bit of a reach, it was at least more believable that after necessary adjustments, we'd have a shot at a legit 15+ Big Dog level storm. That's exactly what it looked like right up to and including the Watch issuance, and subsequent forecasted totals map showing 12-16". There's no way you can paint this as anything BUT an epic FAIL on the part of the guidance that everyone, including the NWS Mets rely on to "get it right". Ofc I'm disappointed, but deep down a part of me never really bought into this map, so it's not as painful as it would've been.

I drive a 2x1 and had zero issues today. This was like a late Oct storm in NMI.

Very difficult to even imagine #1 happened. But I guess there are photos. I mean, it was the 1880's

I'm maybe 1/2 mi south of Joy. Just barely in Canton vs Plymouth. New here just since August. Will be first major storm obviously at my current place.

Blizzard of Nov '89 (The Mitt Special) it rained all day on the 15th, well into the night before switching over maybe 10-11 pm. Only 12" fell after change-over where I was in NEMI, but some areas saw 2 feet with the aid of lake enhancement.

And I believe there was a report of 30" a bit to the NW of BC. Out towards Richland? If true, isn't that crazy that depth was hit with 10:1 ratio and not some fluffed-up high ratio storm? Like you said, it's East Coast stuff, not MW stuff what happened in '67.

GR daily data: Looks like there indeed was a solid 8" base on the morning of the 25th as the storm was setting in. Then you add your fresh storm snowfall of about 19" and suddenly you have a 27" depth giving the general public the same feel that a 27" storm from scratch would have given. With all the massive drifting, it's not hard to see why Joe Public equated it with a 2 foot storm. While GR had temps remain below freezing, there were a lot of places S and E of there that actually had melting conditions leading up to the bliz, so their snow was just a crust to get flash frozen, it wasn't contributing to blowing and drifting. Such was the case in Genesee county where I was at the time. OH ofc had rain and 40's so all those huge drifts you see in photos came via the storm itself. Oh, and the 24 hr snowfall record for Michigan is 32" btw. Much more than 24".

Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol.

Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol.

You can include Jan of '78 monster in that group. Boston was slammed similar to this year, and I believe it was just 4 or 5 days prior to the MOAB here.

Wow, guess I didn't add all those near misses up as potentials for Calhoun/SMI. After all, the region's been waiting 44 years for a widespread CAT-5 hit.

Exactly what I am hoping for. Feb of 2015 I was focused on my former back yard and SR maps painting 22" totals there. Didn't realize Detroit wasn't expecting at least a 15" hit.

We're heading into suppression season, so yes the more SE solutions are legit. Could even argue it is climo to an extent. See 1-31-82, then there's 2003 and 2-14-07 which gave Detroit at least a respectable total despite being an IN & OH special. Plenty of analogs for a N OHV jackzone. We dont have to settle for a strung out POS lame system in Feb. It's this region's prime time.