RogueWaves

Sounds memorable, lol. Here ya go (from IWX's update. Nice wind vector for yby) Additional snow accumulations are expected near Lake Michigan through Sunday in west-northwest wind favored snow belts.

Can you image the range of model solutions we'd be forced to endure with the '78 mega-merger scenario Or the board crashing because EC Weenies were already salivating at Feb 5th on LR runs?

Globals aren't showing that though. Seems like the models do like to amplify the N stream Lows more for some reason. Due to proximity to the thermal boundary perhaps. I don't see this returning to a CF passage.

Yep. It makes very little sense though

New here, so not gotten a feel for weenie-isms or not. Their overnight crew AFD's the past couple/few days have been awesome and in depth without seeming too upbeat or downbeat. But right when you think they'd issue something or at least express some concerns for public safety, they 99'd us. It is a few days before the holidays and notoriously in these situations in big storms of the past GRR's better Mets would be out and we'd get total BS from "04"

Yes, but across much of S Lakes/OHV there was a decent remnant snowpack. 5" was typical across non-LES regions of SMI as the storm set in. This was a slushy compacted base which rapidly re-froze and did aid in allowing the new snow which was of a high ratio type to blow and drift quickly. An ideal state most of us will not have from an impact standpoint. As mentioned there was the 1st in the series of triple blizzards that had run through the OHV around the 19th iirc. It was a big deal for IN and OH and eastward. Then the bomb cut N over the remnant snow cover.

pm AFD written by He/She/It/Bot #99. Dry like they were copying someone else's homework to turn in

iirc, that was the all-time depth at BC and only time on record to crest 30" depth

I'm well aware. The shooting NNW of the S Low pulled a bubble of warm layer with it that caused a prolonging of mixing issues at DTW and a lot of SEMI reducing eventual snow totals. Why I said a track a bit east over Erie could treat this area better than '78 did. You can see that blob of lighter green over Wayne Cnty and a bit north indicating 7.5-10"

We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums.

I'm the opposite. Wanna be hunkered down inside getting just blasted. Snow caked to window screens making it even more "in my face". Haven't seen that since at least 11-11-95 in NMI. I get the cold part since we've become so accustomed to endless autumn this could real feel even worse. Tail end of PV Bliz was frigid too, but it had been cold for almost a month by then.

Plenty of time for DTX. They like to see the whites of the eyes

Psst - he doen't do wind.

Gonna b a boat load of envious wx weenies watching us on center stage for once (hello ECoasters). Kinda b like watching the Lions in the Superbowl

Mitt Hit for sure!

LOL. Late Jan '21 smashed Chicago. Detroit got NADA

Jan '99 gave Detroit her front side. Dec '22 gonna give us her backside

CLE .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The impacts from the low pressure increase dramatically over Christmas weekend, with accumulating snow, strong winds, and bitter cold all on the table. Confidence in the timing/track of the upper-level closed low and associated surface low begins to improve on this surface low as we begin to see more and more run-to-run consistency. There is decent agreement on the general track as the upper-level closed low moves east across the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and back north to just south of the Georgian Bay by Christmas Eve. The surface low is expected to make a similar trajectory as the upper-level low, though may briefly retrograde into central-lower Michigan on Friday before moving north. Continued intensification of the low is expected on Friday with general model consensus having the surface low bottoming out around 970 mb by 00Z/Sat. An intense cold front will move across the area Friday morning, causing a rapid temperature drop, very strong winds, and a transition of rain to snow. Because numerous hazards are expected with this system, each of these hazards will be discussed in greater detail separately below:

We'll all get some fun, just look at the Accu-map

Almost no difference for far SEMI between Kuchie and SLR. Tells me our snow will be wetter. At least initially. Fluff to follow-on via LM

Bump

Nice to see other Peeps crying over bad runs. Carry on..

Can't wait for my "flash-frozen puddle warning" to kick in

Climo sucks

That's for their entire CWA, not just downtown city of Cleveland. Did I need to tell SEMI Peeps the obvious that the LES talk meant Lake Erie? The winds are to be strong not just along the lakeshore(s)