winterymix

At this time of year, we still have the prevailing westerlies. You want that chart when the prevailing flow in the tropics is easterly, probably June until November.

The pivot action is counterclockwise so therefore, positive vorticity. I'm thinking that the pivot indicates that the shortwave is developing negative tilt.

What we really need is a system of learning; specifically a system that is employed each time we turn our attention to a new and interesting weather event that is appearing in the models but is still formulative. For starters, turn to this link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=jet_streaks For each new potential event, I think our METS should present a top down discussion beginning at the 200mb to 300 mb level and discussing jet streaks and ageostrophic flow. Once we grasp those ideas, we can turn our attention to the effects that the jet streaks induce on the 500mb level by then looking at the 500mb charts. We need such a system.

It seems that folks like you and DTK have much to teach about the subtle nature of numerical modeling. The NAM and to some extent, the GFS get trashed so much in relation to the European model. It can't be just that simplistic. It seems to me that meteorologists earn their keep when they know how to blend the relative strengths of each model. If I understood DTK correctly, he stated that yes, the European model has excellent verification scores over long intervals but that skill doesn't always translate to predicting sensible weather in certain geographic regions and in certain climate regimes. In real life, in real NWS offices, do experienced meteorologists refer to a particular model as a piece of garbage? (e.g. "Throw out the NAM; it is on crack!")

To Bob Chill, DTK and WxUSAF: Thank you for the collegial responses. To DTK: You have a lot to teach us. Regarding frequent and evolving updates to model biases, perhaps you can share favorite links at the weather.gov site? To ETauntonMA: This place can be rude. Just recently, during a debate here about the relative worth of the NAM vs. EURO for the weekend suppressed storm, someone here stated that the discussion was "over my head". As the two METS mentioned above prove, when one is secure in their knowledge, they can maintain a collegial tone.

A few more questions for meteorologist(s): Which models have the best verification scores at the following time intervals before a possible event of interest? Best models 10 days before a potential event Best models 7 days before a potential event Best models 4 days before a potential event Best models 2 days before a potential event Best models 1 day before a potential event When are SREF maps most useful? The NAM is not really horrid, is it? Should it only be run to 48 hours? Best sources for ecmwf maps and extended maps. Question: places like weather underground that post extended euro maps; is this in-house proprietary solution being used or is there a standard methodology? Best sources of GFS ensemble maps? Fastest sources for updates of the Canadian models? Is it practical to find the GGEM out to ten days? Are ensembles of Canadian models useful and where is a good place to find those? Help needed with model biases: I found this links but are there better sources for updated model bias information? Outdated, perhaps still useful: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.html http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml#biases

JoMo: You mentioned that your Ex had injuries and perhaps e-coli. I hope she isn't dealing with this horrific fungal outbreak. Good luck will all the challenges around you.

This dude Jeff was living on the bleeding edge of peril. I can't imagine any chaser getting closer.

Absolutely. For the 1100 +/- people injured or perished it was little more than innocently being in the wrong place at the wrong time. This is horribly quick and nearly random catastrophe.

Kindly take a look at that left-side menu in google maps.

I just took another look at the Springfield WSO site. They have the obvious link to the survey for the tornado. If one looks off to the side, there is a menu item to "view a larger map". If one opens that up and further enlarges the image, it becomes quite obvious that the authors wanted to depict a large and significant continuous zone of F-5 forces. This is a rare and extreme catastrophe in the center of a small to mid-side city. Josh, if you look at the side menu for google maps, you will note that kilometers 4 through 7 all experienced winds > 200 moh. I know you want more exact wind speeds but it is up to the WSO to release that info.

Hey JOMO: I'm glad you made it through the maelstrom. Regarding the second guessing, here is my question: It seems the Doppler Radar, warning system and sirens are reasonable; not perfect but far better than what we had 20 years ago. So...should there be underground shelters every couple of streets? It seems that some of the people had nowhere to go. Heck, you had only a closet!!! For the people in the most intense F5 zone, would an underground shelter with a six inch concrete slab or heavy steel storm door (covering an underground room) have saved them? What good does it do to give people a 20 minute warning if they have no basement in their home and no community storm shelter within a short walking distance?

If the membership database captures full names, you guys can check for him on the Red Cross site. Worrisome vibrations, keep hope alive for the best.

If anyone knows JOMO's particulars, they can start the search here: https://safeandwell....fesearch/search https://safeandwell.communityos.org/cms/index.php

iphone panarama of destruction http://photoblog.msn...ado-devastation

Trees de-barked and debris hurled 70+ miles will almost certainly get this monster an F=5. Big problem now is that with severe weather bearing down, the people in that area have few places to seek for shelter.

Your posts during the 12/25-12/27 near miss for some and blizzard for others were appreciated by many here. You seem to have enthusiasm for skillfully done model briefings, independent thought and effective communication skills. Carry on.

This is impressive and is a lesson for the young'ns here trying to jump start a career. The ability to impress the established leadership, not with Bravo Sierra, but with creative, energetic and productive mental horsepower and a hunger for lifetime learning trumps all. The World is populated with a great many talented people that have gone nowhere on their talent.