Ander

Laughing at wral trying to spin it that they weren't totally wrong across the board. From crippling ice storm reporting until overnight last night to now still a second wave coming to it likely will be a wintry mix in that second wave to it will be windy tomorrow but there will be no freezing cold Armageddon Tuesday or Wednesday and instead it will approach forty and be sunny. It never fails living here.

Just took my doggo out for the last time tonight. Cars are glazed over in Durham.

Heavy sleet in Southpoint area of Durham.

Always love this aspect of America for whatever myriad reasons it happens. Hits me right in the feels.

Just took the dog for a last walk before this and it started pinging pretty good in Durham over by Southpoint about about 348.

A question on the NWS ice forecast. Is the ice accumulation freezing rain + sleet that freezes on the ground or just the freezing rain estimates? It seems that is a pretty big distinction for the amount of trees and powerlines coming down unless I am missing something. And yes I am much more of a lurker than poster because I am not a weather expert, so if its a dumb ass quote blame my New England roots. We do not really get ice storms like that up there.

I guess I am going to voice this, but increasingly I find all the weather stuff really not useful. I have lived in NC for 20 years now and this pattern just repeats over and over. Big hurricane, get prepped, we will get wrecked and...nothing. Same is true for winter storms. It just makes me frustrated because it basically teaches me not to take weather threats seriously. I am pretty well prepped in general, but based on this stuff I made some additional purchases because it seemed feasible we could be without power for a good week or more. I spent money on it, I took a lot of time to get it done, and now as we get closer it basically seems like it is either trending nothing burger to icemageddon. In my own field I am very cautious about making predictions because predicting human behavior can be very tricky to get right. I can offer some observations or past lessons or even a couple scenarios but I find it impossible to predict much over a time horizon. Yet in this it seems the more quant data we have the less certainty we get. The old line of garbage in and garbage out keeps coming to mind. Dont get me wrong, I love this site and being able to have a leg up but it feels like we are all getting taken for a ride storm after storm after storm no matter what type it is. What is driving this for me mostly is I have an immunocompromised wife and a special needs son. I feel the weight of needing to get this stuff right for my family, but I hate feeling fooled each time we go through the big storm process.

Curious about this for the triangle. I understand the snow and the freezing rain but what sleet translates into for freezing rain I don't quite get.

Almost always lurking because I do not have too much to add and no expertise in this area. This could be a storm that reminds me of a good ole New England NorEaster and I am hoping for that. We have managed to dodge most of the big ice totals since I moved here 20 years ago, and I am hoping for one more year of that.

Terribly sad about the flooding. My best friends brother, Bill Huston, is one of the missing people.

I grew up in Massachusetts and there were some legendary weathermen there. The only person I can think who had that stature down here was Greg Fishhel. Given the weather up there, some of these guys like Dick Albert became cultural icons across the region - "I should have listened to Dickie". There was this one guy though, Bruce Schwoegler who never quite reached that level but was still a good weather guy. He did acquire the nickname "The Forecasting Cowboy" as he would deviate from the models and guidance for big storms to tell you what he thought lol and boy he was wrong an awful lot.

First time level 3 in a while.

Elon university in alamance county just sent out an emergency alert of possible tornadoes sighted and to take shelter immediately.

As a weather noob, but political science and policy professional, I have some survey data (pandemic disrupted plans to publish) showing that the public does not get tired or ignore stuff when it turns out to be overhyped and wrong. We focused on hurricane warnings and preparedness and found warnings that did not live up to the hype failed to diminish peoples willingness to prepare for and believe future warnings.

Still pouring in Durham NC. No sign of snow yet.

Hi all, I am more of a lurker here (for a decade or so lol). I generally keep quiet because my expertise in a far different field and I just enjoy reading. I did have a noob question, that is both for general knowledge purposes and also with an eye for my personal situation. As a native New Englander who now lives about ten miles from RDU airport, the only things that really bother me in NC about weather are tornadoes and ice storms. I have read a good bit about ice storms, but am unsure the extent to which the icing in this storm will have impacts. From a layman's perspective, I understand snow, sleet, and freezing rain in general. That being said, I have read estimates from model runs ranging from .10 to .70 inches of icing. As I understand it, it is when the icing hits .25 the problems start and by .50 there are pretty widespread power outages around here. Assuming this is correct, why has there been so little said about the icing potential of this storm in the Triangle? Is there something with the expected mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain in this that would minimize that risk for trees, powerlines etc. The only thing in 13 years in NC that has caused significant time without power here for us is ice storms. It is something I never appreciated as a New Englander before moving south. Thanks in advance for any replies and enjoy the snow :)

In Durham, I went out for a ride this morning to see what was going on. Tons of tree service and utility trucks staging here in parking lots. I took a few pics from different parking lots (Home Depot on 15-501, Target @ Southpoint, Rise Donuts @ Southpoint, and a Hess gas station @ Southpoint and one on the road). https://photos.app.goo.gl/pySFf4aBDFcAv3S17

Well my wife works at UNC Chapel Hill and in prior storms they took in lots of UNCW students. They have some there now, not sure how many.

I see the posts about overhyping. I am by no means even knowledgeable enough to be dangerous discussing weather, but I do study and have worked in politics all my adult life. In my corner of the triangle right now there are still gas lines, people evacuating, and water and essentials have been hard to find for days now. All the schools are closed Thursday and Friday. UNC basically shut down Tuesday evening and has been trying to get all their students to go home. At Elon, where I work, they cancelled class and encouraged all students to go home beginning Tuesday. At a school where 25 or so of the kids are from NC and many from the NE etc this isnt as easy as it sounds. Tons of folks to fly out etc. Overreaction yeah maybe, but with 7000 undergrads needing 3 meals a day if the power goes out thats 21000 meals a day on generator power. No bueno. The school is not supposed to keep students on campus if they lose power, but local communities cannot absorb 7000 bodies in their shelters so they basically had no choice. I dont know what the answer to this stuff is, but when you are hitting 5 days out or less and everything seems to be pointing one way and historic flooding, what do you do? I feel bad for the people who are going to take a hit from this. I am a bit of a prepper so I just needed a few things, but many people were making choices between bills and hurricane prep etc. Its a tricky situation. It doesnt feel good enough to just say better to be safe than sorry, but the alternative is? I very much worry that most people will just tune out next time on this kind of stuff. On a personal level, I have been in NC for 12 years now and havent even gotten a good kiss from a hurricane yet. Weirdly, I felt more hurricane effects in Massachusetts than NC and thats depressing.

Look I am sensitive to all of this and not trying to be a dick about anything. I have just never seen such buy in and worry about the fall out. We cancelled 2 days of classes, basically a third and told parents and students to get the kids the heck out. Flying your kid to California or Boston or Philly or Florida or Oregon is a big expense for a lot of people and not just an inconvenience. The level of certainty in all this and how it was pitched (if it turns out wrong) is going to cause some significant problems that will eventually come back to bite people really hard. That is all I am saying. Personally, I have never seen folks in the Triangle take a storm more seriously in my years here. The threat was clear, it was communicated clearly, understood, and acted upon. The lack of doubts or possibilities along the way is going to leave a lot of folks angry and a lot of folks just not trusting this kind of stuff in the future. My two cents.

I dont know man - our school has people from all over the country. Asking families to spring for kids to fly out last minute to avoid a catastrophic hurricane and there is no hurricane makes every look bad. I have never seen this level of preparation for a storm growing up in the northeast and in 12 years in NC. The warnings were clear and for once people listened. I think most people will tune out going forward.

I hate to come off as sounding bitter, but I worry that if this is the case no one here except preppers will take a storm seriously. Literally, everyone has been doing all they need to do which has not been the case in prior storms in my 12 years here. Based on the certainty of the track, literally all the colleges have cancelled, all the schools etc. A little rain is going to produce a lot of egg. At the institution I worked out, they sent out this morning that everyone who can should go home. Kids have been flying out since yesterday since the school has to evacuate if they lose power. This is in the triangle/triad area. My wife works in academics as well and it is in the same boat - telling people to just go home. Not sure what it really means at this point but I think if this is right and there ever is a major slap this way very few will be ready for it.

What would this swap mean for the triangle - just heavy but not epic rains?

My wife works at UNC Chapel Hill. They are shutting down Wed at 5 through Sunday.

Eerie feeling seeing model convergence (grain of salt weather noob) right over your house.