wolfie09

Yeah was just posting that lol Crazy, don't see those in Jersey to often..

Possible tornado on the ground SE of Philadelphia in SNJ..

3 active tornado warnings, tornado watches, flash flood warnings and watches..

Annapolis tornado

A couple confirmed tornadoes in MD due to the remnants of Ida.. 17503 W WICOMICOCHARLESMD38427693LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR ALLENS FRESH MOVING TOWARDS DENTSVILLE. NO DAMAGE REPORTED YET TO THE COUNTY. (LWX) 1816ANNAPOLISANNE ARUNDELMD38977650COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS TREES AND WIRES DOWN ... AND DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS THROUGHOUT THE RIVA ... WOODLAND BEACH ... AND ANNAPOLIS AREA. (LWX)

Struggling to reach 70° so far today, DPs in the mid-high 50s making it pretty comfortable..Winds out of the NE, 100% cloud cover..

Ggem actually has a decent amount of lake effect precipitation+synoptic..

Monday through Wednesday of next week the base of the longwave trough will remain centered on the Great Lakes, with several shortwaves crossing our region. This will support a chance of showers each day, and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. In addition, cyclonic westerly flow and relatively cool temperatures aloft may support a chance of lake effect rain showers east of the lakes at times, with the GFS and Canadian GEM most supportive of this on Monday and Tuesday. A sign of things to come as we head deeper into the unstable lake season.

Mainly dry weather is then expected to continue through the remainder of the period as high pressure remains in control. A secondary (dry) cold front will push south through the area on Thursday, bringing a reinforcing shot of even cooler and drier air (refreshing) to our region. Cool enough that it may even give the feel of a little taste of early fall. A weak, moisture starved warm front will approach/move into the area Friday night bringing slightly warmer and more humid air back in across the area. Otherwise, daytime highs Thursday and Friday will generally range from the upper 60s across the higher terrain to the lower and mid 70s elsewhere. Temperatures Wednesday, Thursday and Friday night will be very comfortable with lows generally ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 50s, with some mid 50s closer to the lake shores. Saturday will probably remain rain-free with a mid level ridge axis across our area forecast to move eastward across New England. After this, it will be a relatively cool and showery pattern with model consensus digging an upper level trough across the lower Great Lakes Sunday through Tuesday. This will support a series of weak systems which will move through the area. Also, the air aloft will be cool enough (around +10C) to support some lake enhancement at times. Raised model PoPs in lake enhanced regions, with the most widespread showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) expected to be during the afternoon hours on Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will be in the 70s on Saturday and then will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday through Tuesday.

Today was a winner in my book.. Anytime the RF is right around the surface temp it's a good day lol We did briefly manage 78° earlier this afternoon..A little breeze has kicked in as well, gusting 10-15mph at times..

For the most part Yes, especially east of Ontario..But it depends on location.. For example Syracuse airport wettest month is OCT but the next 5 are summer and spring months, complete opposite of eastern Ontario region.. Obviously N/NW flow tends to have less liquid and higher ratios which explains some of it..But yeah we tend to get more organized rain systems and LER once fall sets in.. This is pretty much my go to site these days lol https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/

We are going to finish this month above average in rainfall at 5.70", it could of been worse if we didn't miss the bulk of Fred just to the south..Last month we finished with 11.44", so just over 17" the last two months.. Luckily we will dodge a bullet with ida which has the potential to dump 4"-8" over portions of PA/NJ/NYC/SE NY and SNE..We haven't even reached the "rainy season" yet as according to NOAA 3 out of the 4 wettest months for pulaski are Oct/Nov and December, obviously hoping December is more white than wet lol

Front went through around 11am this morning..

You can feel the drop in dews.. Still warm out, 80° but DPs down from 73° this morning to 61° currently making it much more tolerable..

Going to feel extremely pleasant overnight compared to what we have been going through.. NWS going a little warmer than this (low 50s) but I'll take it either way lol

You can clearly see the path of ida lol

After this, the remnants of Ida will track across the mid-Atlantic states around Wednesday. Model guidance continues to show strong high pressure to our north will keep the tropical remnants to the south of the forecast area, but there will be a very sharp gradient with significant rainfall possible just south of the NY/PA state line. There`s little doubt that most of the area will remain rain- free, with a small chance the Western Southern Tier will get clipped by some rain Wednesday. Otherwise, there will be a cool northeasterly flow due to the pressure gradient between the strong high pressure system and the remnant low passing to our south and east. High temperatures will only range from the upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level trough across New England on Thursday will slide east with a ridge building across the lower Great Lakes through Friday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will drift east across the area which will provide a continuation of dry weather. It will be cooler, but generally comfortable, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend, a shortwave will dig across Ontario province with a series of weak frontal boundaries potentially crossing the region. There`s some model disagreement if there will be a warm frontal passage ahead of a cold front or just a cold front. Either way, Saturday should be mainly rain-free with just a small chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday. It will be slightly warmer, with highs in the 70s over the weekend. There`s some potential it could be 5 degrees warmer (or cooler) than forecast depending on the progression of the warm front.

Time to say goodbye to sizzle sizzle?

Here comes another round of convection..

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html

Latest update from the NHC.. Ida still a high end CAT 4.. Speed has slowed down a couple mph.. 11:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29Location: 28.9°N 90.1°WMoving: NW at 13 mphMin pressure: 933 mbMax sustained: 150 mph