wolfie09

Binghamton There continues to be rather good agreement that a strengthening area of low pressure will track from the Carolinas to New England Sunday night through Monday. While there continues to be spread within the ensembles, confidence is slowly increasing for a track somewhere in the vicinity of the Hudson Valley. However, considering this is still several days out, this may shift a bit west or east, which creates a very uncertain forecast in terms of type of precipitation and amounts. A shift a bit west would likely introduce the possibility for a wintry mix across parts of the area, especially east of I-81. A shift a bit east would introduce the possibility for the heavier snow to be across our area. Right now, if you went with the deterministic consensus verbatim, the heaviest axis of snow would be actually be across Western NY with a potential dry slot deflating amounts a bit across Central NY and Northeast PA. Main point here is that while confidence is high for a storm system to impact the area, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system. After coordinating with our surrounding offices, opted to not issue any Winter Storm Watches yet due to this high degree of uncertainty and the fact this storm is not expected to impact the area until the Sunday night/Monday timeframe.

Nice

Ouch lol Stay warm.. WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder.

In most cases the HP is farther north so the storm gaines latitude before transferring, this one just transfers a little earlier lol

HP does make the surface reflection transfer energy, not sure that can be considered a Miller A .

WPC calling this a "Miller B type setup"..(Not that it matters, at least to me lol) Low pressure sinking out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley will begin to weaken as a new surface low begins to form off the SC coast in a Miller-B type setup. This coastal low will gradually become dominant, especially by D4, as the mid-level closed low over the MS VLY shifts east and combines with increasing upper diffluence to produce surface pressure falls. While much of this will occur just beyond this forecast period, increasing moist advection out of the Gulf of Mexico will spread precipitation northward into the Southern Appalachians. As this occurs, a wedge of high pressure will actually become reinforced by falling precipitation, and precipitation will likely fall as snow in the higher terrain, but freezing rain in the Piedmont. There remains considerable uncertainty into the track and timing of this system, but it does appear significant accumulations of snow and ice are becoming more likely. WPC probabilities for 4 inches of snowfall are above 40% in the NC mountains and extreme Upstate SC, with WPC probabilities for 0.1" of freezing rain above 10% across the Piedmont of SC and into the Sand Hills of NC.

The model guidance for the 00z/06z cycle show reasonable agreement regarding the Southeast/East Coast surface low Sunday-Tuesday. The new 12z guidance sticks pretty close to previous runs, with just the typical run-to-run wobble variance. All of the deterministic solutions now keep the low inland, with the 06z/12z GFS a hair east, and the UKMET continuing to stick farther south. The ensemble means are also a bit east of the deterministic solutions, though still mostly along or just inland of the coast. Interestingly enough, the 06z/12z GEFS mean continues to keep it's low center offshore and displaced well to the east of its deterministic counterpart, though there are a fair number of ensemble members with an onshore low. WPC prefers a track a little closer to the deterministic solutions, given the trend over the past couple of days has been westward. The closest proxy to the forecast was a blend of the 00z ECMWF and CMC, which places the low over the Philadelphia region on Monday morning, and very close to that of the previous WPC forecast as well. Given the spread in the individual ensemble members, there still a fair amount of uncertainty in the exact low track and even subtle shifts east or west could create large changes in the impacts for especially the major metropolitan cities along the I-95 corridor.

Wpc 5D total

GFS right now is best case scenario for pretty much all of kbuf CWA..

Tbh it's more about the deform band.. Euro doesn't show enhancement well..

Let's not be greedy and shift that 10-15 miles NE

New map

Looks good

This was AccuWeather from yesterday fwiw lol

Icon is to far east verbatim lol

Little bit outdated.. Model guidance for the 12/18Z cycle (and the incoming 00Z cycle) shows a similar idea to the previous couple of cycles of model guidance with the impactful surface low in the East--that is, a low track as described above staying onshore in the deterministic guidance, but with the GEFS and EC ensemble means showing a track offshore, while individual ensemble members demonstrate considerable spread in low placement, with certainly some ensemble members along the coast or inland. Again, while model guidance exhibits good agreement for a strengthening low, the exact low track will create significant differences in weather type at certain locations, especially near the Atlantic coast to about the I-95 corridor. The 12/18/00Z GFS along with the 12/00Z CMC all show a track basically on the western side of the guidance envelope (well inland over the northern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning), with the 12Z ECMWF a bit farther east but still onshore. Felt it prudent to continue with a low track in between the western deterministic guidance and the eastern EC and GEFS ensemble mean guidance, but somewhat favoring the fairly well clustered deterministic models. The best proxy for this at the time of forecast creation was close to the 12Z ECMWF and the 12Z CMC ensemble mean; the 12Z CMC ensemble mean along with the incoming 00Z CMC mean are the first ensemble means to show an onshore track with the low. This led to a surface low basically over Philadelphia on Monday morning, which was a very minor shift farther inland/west compared to continuity. Hopefully models will converge and confidence will increase within the next day for the exact low track, as the shortwave energy leading to this system will enter the Pacific Northwest/southwestern Canada and have better data sampling for input into the model guidance.

Ukie

Looks like the Canadian is warmer, at least according to these images..I doubt the deform band will be a mix lol Track is pretty far west though..

I'll post the updated version later when it comes out, usually 18z or so..

Right over the NYC metro area..

Verbatim we miss all the good stuff to the east..