wolfie09

I bet they are just like the Gfs/icon and give us snow once the system passes our latitude and the front comes through..You can even see the little enhancement east of Ontario..(up top)

Sref have like this event from the start..

FWIW

Track wise the GFS was pretty close to the last several runs of the ukmet and last nights european..

Nws has 1"-2" Christmas morning so they expect at least something..

And the icon lol

You can see the difference in the trough just from one run to the next.. Exact track will take some time..

Lol..Well the LES still looks like a go but synoptic shit the bed..I don't think they were ever enamored with the synoptic system...(Although their first map showed several inches)

For Friday morning, there should be a brief transition from ending synoptic snow moving into Central NY and developing lake effect snow developing on a WSW flow over the lakes. The coldest aloft will still be upstream and poised to move overhead later Friday afternoon. So there may be a period Friday morning with a meager lake response before a full-blown lake response takes hold. As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to both the start time and placement of lake effect snow. East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south overnight. East of Lake Ontario...a similar transition period is expected, with widespread snow tapering off Friday morning...followed with a lake response Friday afternoon. The most intense period should be Friday night and well into Saturday. Similar to Lake Erie however, there`s still uncertainty placement at this point through Saturday. The best chance will probably be over/north of the Tug Hill Plateau. Then another shortwave trough will move across the St Lawrence valley and should push the band south over and eventually south of the Tug Hill Plateau. With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with corresponding snow amounts. In summary, the synoptic snow should yield 1-4" sloppy heavy snow for nearly all of WNY, followed by a break or decrease, then localized lake effect develops. There`s high confidence for lake effect downwind of both lakes, but details still need to be ironed out. Lighter lake snows will linger into Sunday and eventually fall apart as warm advection ahead of the next system to affect the area turns flow southerly and warms temperatures into the start of next week. Long range guidance in fairly good agreement on a shortwave trough rounding the base of the Northern Stream on Monday. The associated cold front crosses the Great Lakes region during the day Monday, leading to snow shower chances across the area. Daytime heating on Monday may raise temperatures enough for some rain to mix in with the snow, but should be all snow again by Monday evening. The large scale system pushes out of the area by Tuesday morning, but much cooler air ushering in behind the front may lead to some lake effect snow for Tuesday.

P&C forecast changed a little here with"occasional" included in the wording for Friday which makes sense.. Saturday still looks good for 4 days out.. Christmas Day Snow before 7am, then occasional snow showers, mainly after 7am. High near 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday Night Occasional snow showers. Low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow showers. High near 25. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Yea I've lived all around that zone but never in it lol From Altmar (east of the southern tug) to copenhagen (north of the tug) to pulaski (even more east of the southern tug) Needless to say I see a lot of snow but also miss a lot of snow lol It can get frustrating for sure..

Yeah Barnes corner, North redfield and worth/lorraine are some of the snowiest areas east of L.. Ontario.. Back in 2016-2018 N redfield had about 100-150 more inches then the southern part of town..It's also quite a big town lol

Nws has 7" here by 7 am Saturday, unfortunately that will not be happening lol Synoptic has gone to shit and I'll miss most of the LES Friday to the north..I expect some adjustments next package update..

Don't worry, it goes back north next frame just in case..

I'm liking sat for this area as all Globals drop the band south..

I can't speak for ERIE but that's a nice aligned westerly flow off Ontario on the European.. Obviously at 10-1 with a model that has trouble picking up lake moisture..NWS cleveland mentioned 15-20/ SLR..

Canadian and Ukmet are both east of the GFS up in canada so the flow is more West-WSW off Ontario, albeit the Canadian looked weak sauce lol

Even though I'm out synoptically speaking a more easterly track helps with LES..So I'll be rooting haha..

Well even the eastern solution can't deliver snow for CNY lol That's when you know we are toast, good track to.. Rochester to buffalo looks like 3"-5" verbatim...

Sunday morning it went through Rochester but besides that it's been mostly E/C NY..

Grasping at straws lol Ukie continues to be the eastern"outlier" ..May not make a difference for here wrt synoptic snow but it would for lake effect lol

On to the next one lol Looks like another late capture on the GFS..

Yeah I would take it just because of a little enhancement Christmas morning but yeah ugly run..

Should be a little east of 6z..