wolfie09

Ukmet is mainly LES..Cuts the storm in between Erie and Ontario..Well aligned westerly flow as well.. Looking at the NWS LES archives most of our best events happen with the ULL in this vicinity..

Gfs was a big hit east of the lakes.. Canadian was farther west and had more of a WSW flow..

GEFS Fwiw

We just "miss" out here in CNY on the euro, we'll see what future runs show.. I'd like to see that heavier banding a little SE lol

Getting a nice steady snow at the moment..

I don't really dabble to much into LR forecasting, I usually leave that up to you guys lol The teleconnections do look favorable heading into the first week of January.. I'm just hoping the -NAO doesn't get to strong or we could be taking a suppressive pattern..

Yeah that's for pulaski but the buffalo HWO says the same but "Erie" instead of"Ontario" lol

Meanwhile, the initial trough will deepen as a strong area of PV drops south along the western side of the trough. As the trough deepens over the central portion of the U.S., guidance suggests phasing with the southern more zonal stream over the southern Rockies and southern Plains. As the strong area of PV rounds the base of the trough a sfc low develops lee of the Appalachian and tracks inland up the coast Thursday afternoon into Thursday night along a cold front dropping south from the northern sfc low. A strong 160 kt upper level jet develops over the Appalachian and tracks north over the WNY area on Thursday. Guidance is still in disagreement with timing and exact track, making it difficult to pin point some of the timing of precip types. There will be widespread rain to start for the event, but depending on when the cold front from the northern sfc low crosses the area and when the second sfc low goes up the coast, will determine how quick rain changes to snow. After that, placement of the second sfc low may cause a widespread synoptic snowfall as it tracks east of the region, but this will be highly dependent on the placement of the cold front as the second sfc low tracks north. Behind the synoptic precipitation, and passing cold front, cold air advection will bring 850H temps down to around -15C. Combined with the cold air aloft, a negatively tilting trough, and synoptic moisture still in place a lake response off of both Lake Ontario and Lake Erie looks very favorable, and potentially a significant lake event. As far as guidance timing goes, a widespread rain ahead of the passing cold front looks likely from Thursday morning into the afternoon. Starting Thursday afternoon is where guidance is split on frontal passage and changeover to snow. Timing issues with the speed of the entire event still exists with the Euro a bit slower than the rest of the guidance. Temperatures out ahead of the cold front and sfc low will warm to the upper 40s and low 50s on Thursday. Behind the passing front daytime temperatures will only be in the low to mid 30s early Friday and cool from there, and top out in the low to mid 20s for Saturday and Sunday.

Latest HWO..Not much talk about a synoptic snowfall, yet.. A strengthening storm over our region on Thursday could generate a soaking rain into Thursday night. This rain combined with snow melt could result in minor flooding. Strong gusty winds are also possible during this time. Significant lake effect snow will then be possible east or northeast of Lake Ontario from Christmas Day through Saturday. While there is still a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm system, there is growing confidence that travel in at least parts of the region could be severely impacted by what could turn out to be a major lake effect snow event. Any lake effect snow would be accompanied by gusty winds as well.

That's a pretty nice mean on the GEFS.. Doesn't account for all the LES..

Back to the big runs east of Ontario I see lol.. Didn't seem like the European was to enthused with LES and even the gfs seemed like a pretty quick event..

Ahead of the system, much warmer air move northward into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday. Widespread rain will overspread the area Thursday as Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn all the way northward into the Great Lakes ahead of the full latitude trough. The rain may be heavy, although total amounts will depend on how fast the cold front arrives. A slower solution such as the 12Z ECMWF would bring much more rain and a potential for flooding, while the faster 12Z GFS solution would not produce enough rain for any flood concerns. The speed of the cold front and potential for another frontal wave moving north along the frontal zone will also play an important role in synoptic snow potential Thursday night through Friday. The ECWMF remains in the slow side of guidance, keeping precipitation rain even into Friday morning before cold air arrives later Friday afternoon with a change to snow from west to east. The faster GFS and GEM solutions would allow rain to change to snow from west to east Thursday night. Several model runs have shown a frontal wave moving north just east of our area, which would bring a more significant synoptic snowfall but the track and timing would have to fall into a very narrow window for this to verify. Eventually, much colder weather will be in store for the region as the system slides to our east and brings in colder air with 850mb temperatures dropping to near -15C by Friday night and Saturday. This may set the stage for a significant lake effect snow event, but the details are still uncertain. The GFS and GEM evolution behind the departing synoptic system appear most favorable, with a period of deep cyclonic westerly flow, and even some potential for southwest flow. The ECWMF is less favorable and later with the lake effect potential, with sheared westerly flow Friday night becoming northwest by Saturday. Extended range CIPS analogs based on the longwave pattern support the potential for significant lake effect snow to the lee of the eastern Great Lakes. Stay tuned.

Some members may also have multiple waves making the GEFS hard to decipher..

Well many members go east of us which would be snow once you're on the other side of the CF..

Gefs

Since I'm bored lol Lots of energy..

If it goes due north the wind will be somewhere out of the west..

Well that depends, lol Yesterdays GFS runs that went up the apps crushed me with a west wind, I think one run had near 50" for pulaski haha..If it goes NE off the coast that's a different story..

FWIW

They just keep popping up lol

Yup.. Thanks I was comparing to last night's run and realized something looked different lol

I think the european may have 2 waves ride the front..