wolfie09

.A Massive Pattern Shift on Tap for the Holidays... After the passage of the last system for the short term, high pressure will briefly build into the area and result in dry conditions, however southerly flow will start to muster as it passes with progressively warmer air flowing into the region through Christmas Eve morning. This will result in 850 hPa temperatures surging toward +6C and any mixes of rain/snow trending decidedly toward rain as the next very amplified system approaches the region. Multi-model and ensemble consensus along with standard deviation anomaly charts favor a massively anomalous event in the period staring Christmas eve and extending through Christmas. This looks to result in very warm conditions and rain to start that time frame. In the warm advection ahead of the system, a negatively-tiled mid-level short wave looks to advance northeastward toward the area in a strengthening and highly-curved upper jet pattern. This would result in the potential for rather explosive cyclogenesis as the wave advances toward our area. Further, 850-700 and 700-500 hPa theta-e lapse rates go negative in a pattern with a negatively-tilted short wave traversing the area, which would be indicative of both a heavy precipitation potential as well as a thunder potential for Christmas eve. This is not to mention the presence of 120 kts of 0-6 km shear! With all of this in mind, it seems pretty clear the models are pointing at either a thunderstorm chance along the front or a very highly convective shower-line passage with the front. Either way, there will be a potential for very gusty conditions as the front crosses the area, which seems poised to most likely be on Christmas eve at this juncture. With the passage of the front, drastically colder air will invade the region, dropping those pre-frontal +6C 850 hPa temperatures down toward a consensus of -16 to -20C. This will get the lake effect machine going into Christmas and beyond with temperatures falling off well below normal by that juncture

European delivers east of the lakes as well it just takes longer...

Someone from WNY programmed the european today, toss..

European with a different look then 0z..

Do what we do best and that's dink and dunk..lol Pulaski (0.5 NE) has 3" this year, so yeah..

Well for me since I'm selfish would like it to stay inland, just not to inland Even with a rain track we can see some decent snow on the backside..

That's a pretty strong HP off the east coast that obviously can slow the progression of the CF..

Canadian is farther west with it..So is the icon..

Probably like 3-4 feet verbatim lol But if it goes a little west every thing changes, probably best to stick with Sunday for now lol

That some nice looking lake effect lol

Yeah and still going lol But GL timing the CF from this lead time lol

Close to getting something going.

Nice little 2-4 incher on the gfs for Sunday night , changes to showers verbatim but screw it lol

I'll speak for all of cny when I ask for member#1 please lol

Several decent members on the GEFS clown maps..

European has it as well but stalls farther west, all about timing and usually we don't have that kind of luck lol

COLD FRONT PLAINS TO EAST THEN POTENTIAL NEW STORM GULF TO NORTHEAST: A cold front will move through the Plains and Midwest Dec. 22-23 with gusty winds and some snow moving across the Midwest into the Great Lakes; this includes Chicago. Rain showers will break out south along the front to the lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will drop dramatically behind the front in the central and northern Plains, perhaps below normal the rest of the period. Cold front continues to head east but may stall between the Appalachians and the East Coast on Dec. 24. There is a chance that a wave of low pressure forms along the cold front Southeast and moves north. The trend is looking better for another big storm up the East coast and only if the upper trough deepens. If not, then the wave will head off shore and may impact eastern Canada rather than the East Coast

Cny/NE PA

Haha some love off Erie

Still looks good for some white on Christmas Eve/Christmas

I would say about 2"-3" at the new crib.. Better then nothing as they say lol

European does try to get some SW flow going..See how this materializes the next week or so..

99% I'm the 1 percenter

Ukmet is closer to the Canadian with LES potential day 4-5..We wait..

Christmas miracle? Lol European tries to get some LES going at times but it's not the best when it comes to that lol..