wolfie09

European is going to cut again..

Ukie

Winds vary on the Canadian, mean wind flow looks WSW to me(off Ontario).. Good for copenhagen of course lol

Ukie with a nice look at the end of its run..

Canadian

True Well I do for every comment so just ignore them.. Thanks

PW hates Buffalo lol Numbers never match the color graph, does show a couple feet for watertown though.. Obviously just for fun since we have no clue which way the wind will blow..

Hmmm I'm not sure how that sounded"snarky" by correcting you lol 3 inches in a 6 hour period is not even short term blitzed, need the storm farther east..

It's ok but wouldn't call it blitzed lol

We all flip over to some snow early Christmas morning..

Last 2 runs of the gfs..

Icon east and colder verbatim, would be a little south shore enhancement on the backend as well..

Nws uses the"big 3" Gfs, Canadian and european.. As of right now the GFS is the only model spitting out synoptic snows, GGEM,EURO, Icon all west..The 6z gfs jumped a little west as well.. Edit: 0z icon was actually east of previous runs, still warm and rainy verbatim..

Well so was the European lol Which showed a tenth of inch of precip for ksyr within 24 hours and that area picked up 6"-8".. Actually the tracks on all the models were pretty similar it was how much precipitation made it north that was the issue..

After this, forecast confidence decreases with an active weather pattern developing across the area. Long range model guidance is in general agreement that sharp trough will evolve into a mid-level cut- off low somewhere near our area. This is likely to bring a soaking rainfall to the region Thursday into Thursday night. This will, eventually, be followed by much colder weather as this system slides to our east and brings in colder air with 850 mb temperatures dropping to around -15c by Saturday. However, model guidance is in poor agreement how we get there, making the Christmas eve/Christmas Day forecast a low confidence one. There are differences in both timing and track of the system which are unlikely to be resolved for at least a couple of days. For example the 00Z GFS is faster with the system with temperatures in the lower 20s on Christmas Day, while the slower/west GGEM has temperatures in the 50s. Since warm weather on Wednesday and Thursday should melt the snow on the ground at most locations, the evolution of this system will determine if there will be any snow on the ground for Christmas morning. Stay tuned... Multi-model and ensemble consensus along with standard deviation anomaly charts favor a massively anomalous event in the period staring Christmas eve and extending through Christmas. A negatively- tiled mid-level short wave looks to advance northeastward toward the area in a strengthening and highly-curved upper jet pattern. Although location is uncertain, this has the potential to produce 2+ inches of rain somewhere in the northeastern states. There`s also a potential for a convective shower-line with gusty winds, however 00Z model guidance has shifted the best chance for this to the south and east of our region. Looking ahead to next weekend, there is little doubt that it will be much colder, supporting the potential for lake effect snow. It`s too early to pin down location yet, but significant accumulations are possible.

European has several inches between 2 small events early next week, according to the NWS marginal temps so we'll see..

Going to be another big hit on the gfs..

GEFS clowns

It's like non stop on the gfs lol (synoptic and LES)

Track was a little east verbatim so the Lake effect set up from Kroc to ksyr..

You don't see this often.. Christmas Day Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Pretty similar to last run..

Did you guys forget Matt will be out of town? He probably programmed the GFS..

Next event is looking disorganized... Temps start in the 20s and go just above freezing.. Hoping to pick up a quick "refresher" lol