wolfie09

Yeah at first buffalo was calling for a SW flow this evening with 2" an hour rates because that's what guidance showed, unfortunately things change quick when it comes to lake effect.. Time for nowcasting anyway lol

There is a wave just weak and no surface reflection..Euro does the same..

New map.. Jumped up a full inch lol

Happy New year

It's funny how kbuf uses the"high end" for buffalo but near the"low end" for pulaski.. How can you have expected snow 14" but then a 1 in 10 chance of higher then 14" lol

Here it is zoomed in lol Talkin a foot at 10-1 about 1 mile north of pulaski and maybe a couple/few inches 2 miles to the south..lol

Hi rez Canadian is a pretty good crush job especially to my north at 10-1..I'll be riding that southern fringe most of the event..

If you look at the HRRR and WRF models there is a strong SW band off Ontario overnight before the band drops south but for whatever reason the flow off Erie is different.. I'm guessing it's due to the exact low position..You have NW on the backside and SW out ahead..

Pretty much identical lol Snow does move east verbatim with a low in eastern NY..

Canadian is most aggressive for early next week, flow goes back and forth from West-WNW..

Yeah we flipped to snow here, starting to see a little white..

Let's try this again? Lol Precipitation chances will then ramp up again Wednesday night into Thursday as the next stronger area of low pressure moves into the upper Great Lakes. The setup with this storm system looks similar to the situation we are are currently dealing with, even with a potential wave developing along the system`s trailing cold front and riding north along the boundary right across or near our area. This will bear watching as it could have impacts for New Years Eve into New Years Day. Stay tuned.

Only using for trends (even global models can be useful lol) You can see the"heaviest" shifted south (expanded) as well as the southern fringes..

This band tomorrow will be the main show off Ontario, wether it stays in place for a little is yet tbd lol Probably 2"-3" an hour stuff..Hrrr keeps it in place for like 8 hours, dumping a couple feet near the southern tug..

European has a little more "northerly" flow as well at the end of the event..

Christmas sleet here lol Starting to cover the deck some..

Here was the gfs and european from 24 hours out..

I honestly didn't follow it much for obvious reasons lol But I thought the GFS and european did pretty good.. Originally both models had several inches in CNY that never materialized but after that they did pretty good.. I also thought majority of the hi rez models did good with the cutoff.. Canadian and NAM products probably did the worst..

I think the NAM products are the worst but that's just my opinion lol Either way it will be a nowcast situation, GL to you guys.

European has been on the "westerly" bandwagon from the start.. Even has a more "northerly" flow at the end of the event like the HRRR..

Icon has shown this for days which looks pretty similar to the RGEM just a little farther south with band placement.. Saturday morning and Saturday Evening/overnight look to be the best chance for this area..

Yeah same kind of situation here.. Within 10 miles it goes from 4"-6" to 12"-18" and I'm right in the middle of the cutoff zone lol

And the ARW which sends a little love down towards freak/CNY..

NSSL little north with the heaviest..But would still be solid verbatim..

NMM is a pretty big hit as well..