wolfie09

Flakes starting to fly here, temps still a little too warm at 36..

12z ARW vs current radar..

High rez Canadian splits me and freak lol Eventually it sinks south. We'll see who verifies best tomorrow..

Rgem is the outlier lol

Throw a dart..

Pretty big change wrt to the snowmap..Now I can kiss my snow goodbye..

Starting to see a lake response.. Sitting at 37 with some graupel..

Concerning lake effect, inversions less than 5kft and dry air with approaching high pressure ridge will limit the response off Lake Erie through Tuesday. Expect numerous westerly flow multiple band regime snow showers tonight especially impacting higher terrain from Chautauqua county into Southern Erie county. Winds shift more northwest late tonight into Tuesday, pushing most of the snow showers into Chautauqua county, but coverage and intensity will really be waning by that time. Accumulations of a few inches are expected. Off Lake Ontario, expect a more robust lake response. Forecast soundings show inversions rising to 7-8kft and lake equilibrium levels to 11-12kft late this evening through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. Soundings also show that good part of lake convective layer will reside within prime DGZ for better snowflake growth. Winds start out westerly with stronger convergence band pushing in across Tug Hill Plateau through late evening then winds shift more northwest overnight, ending the lake effect over the Tug Hill but pushing it more into Oswego/N. Cayuga and Wayne counties with this activity also boosted by hint of upstream connection to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. For location of lake effect later tonight off southeast Lake Ontario, leaned on the Canadian and NAMnest. If winds were more steady for more of the night, think we could be looking at some warning criteria snow across Oswego county. Shifting in the main band should keep amounts more in the 4-7 inch range later tonight into Tuesday morning before the lake effect fades away. Additionally, it is possible that the western end of this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with at least some minor snow accumulations that could impact the Tuesday morning commute, including in the Rochester area.

Could be a surprise where ever this band decides to go..Hi rez Canadian with over 1/2" liquid in a few hours.. Last 2 runs of the HRRR( still snowing)..

Hi rez Canadian does the exact same thing..A quick couple hours of heavy snow..In Altmar we got these quite often, quick 2"-4" in an hour or two..

Rgem makes total sense too lol You have system on the move so the band will be on the move.. Which is exactly what the NWS stated..Starts in central Oswego county and pushes south..

Later tonight and Tuesday morning a secondary cold front will move southeast across Lake Ontario. The convergence from the cold front will merge with pre-existing lake generated convergence, allowing for a brief burst of heavier snow to develop southeast of the lake. Mesoscale model guidance also suggests a brief upstream connection to Lake Huron during this time frame, giving an added boost to the band southeast of Lake Ontario. Mesoscale model guidance including the 3km NAM, WRF windows, and GEM show a good deal of spread on where this band will develop initially. Pattern recognition and mean boundary layer flow suggests this band should develop late tonight in central Oswego County, then move south towards northern Cayuga and eastern Wayne counties Tuesday morning, before weakening by midday. Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches in this area tonight through Tuesday, with most of that coming in a relatively short window late tonight and Tuesday morning. The western end of this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with 1-2 inches of accumulation expected. This may impact the Tuesday morning commute in the Rochester area.

I did last event and it paid off lol Nws looks at the NAM/WRF and they bust lol Rgem did better at hour 50 than WRF models did hour 6 lol

Later tonight and Tuesday morning a secondary cold front will move southeast across Lake Ontario. The convergence from the cold front will merge with pre-existing lake generated convergence, allowing for a brief burst of heavier snow to develop southeast of the lake. Mesoscale model guidance also suggests a brief upstream connection to Lake Huron during this time frame, giving an added boost to the band southeast of Lake Ontario. Mesoscale model guidance including the 3km NAM, WRF windows, and GEM show a good deal of spread on where this band will develop initially. Pattern recognition and mean boundary layer flow suggests this band should develop late tonight in central Oswego County, then move south towards northern Cayuga and eastern Wayne counties Tuesday morning, before weakening by midday. Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches in this area tonight through Tuesday, with most of that coming in a relatively short window late tonight and Tuesday morning. The western end of this band will likely move onshore from eastern Niagara County into the Rochester area as well late tonight and Tuesday morning, with 1-2 inches of accumulation expected. This may impact the Tuesday morning commute in the Rochester area.

Forecasted 1"-3" this evening.. Wind direction West-NW.. Snow before 10pm, then snow showers likely after 10pm. Low around 21. West wind 7 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sitting at 36° watching my snow melt lol Forecasted high right around 40°..

Like I stated yesterday RGEM doesn't really have a sustained flow..How many times have we seen this scenario before? Lol Band starts out westerly and shifts south as the system progresses east..It looks like a "westerly" event because the band is stronger out of the west and weakens as it heads south..

He talking about the last few days of the run..

Expected and high end..

Rgem doesn't really have a sustained band though, it would be a quick hitting couple inches verbatim..I suppose it would be better than nothing lol

Expected snowfall Hi end.. Once again a bigger spread for pulask areai then surrounding areas..

Ratios cost us a bigger event.. The Canadian hi rez and rgem were right with about an inch of liquid.. I also noticed Kuchera"low balling" us, well now I know why lol

"officially" 13" which is exactly what I measured.. .Oswego County... Redfield 8N 15.2 in 0700 AM 12/27 COOP Pulaski 0.5 NE 13.0 in 0900 AM 12/27 COCORAHS Altmar 9.0 in 0110 AM 12/27 Public Fulton 0.2 W 1.0 in 0400 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

Who would of thought lol Updated totals..

Even from 71 hours out.. Timing was a little off but that's to be expected..