wolfie09

I would probably say the rgem..That's pretty good band placement for 54 hours out.. Went a little too heavy on precipitation yesterday but was definitely closer than what some of the other SR models had..

You can see all the graupel balls as I clean off the car lol

Yeah it was heaviest closer to the lake at first but then the band drifted north overnight hitting up the tug while I was fighting heavy graupel.. Definitely lost a possible few inches more lol

Picked up about 13" Dave..

Rgem keeps the bulk of the next LES event just to my south as winds are more "west" then "north".. Obviously I'll be keeping an eye on it lol

Much colder air will pour across the area Monday night and Tuesday in the wake of a secondary cold frontal passage, with 850Ts dropping down into the mid negative teens Celsius. As equilibrium levels rise to near 10K feet, bands of lake effect snow will blossom within a WNW to NW flow. It is looking more and more likely that there will be at least some semblance of an upstream connection with Lake Huron/Georgian Bay. This only increases the potential for some advisory level snows, mainly ESE/SE of the Lakes, especially ESE/SE of Lake Ontario during the second half of Monday night through Tuesday morning. Thus, have upped snow amounts some during this timeframe as things become a bit more clear. If confidence continues to grow, winter headlines may be needed

Additional from midnight..

1253 am update.. Intense band of lake effect snow still ongoing impacting mainly northern Oswego County centered on Pulaski. This band has reached its southernmost point, and will begin to drift north again overnight towards the Oswego/Jefferson County border, and extending into far western Lewis County. Snowfall rates will continue at 2 -3 inches per hour in the heaviest portion of the band through much of the night. Additional accumulations of 7 to 14 inches are expected through Sunday morning across northern Oswego, far southern Jefferson, and far western Lewis County. The lake snow will rapidly weaken and move north across Jefferson County from late Sunday morning through early afternoon as boundary layer flow backs and inversion heights

Absolutely crushing right now, flakes are gigantic lol No wind at all ..9" and counting..

Slowly moving north, snow picking up once again..

Yup they didn't even bother to update that area lol Band is forming just to my south, all SR models bring it a little north soon, so we'll see..

We already have the forecasted amount lol

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON... SOUTHERN LEWIS AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES... At 844 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3 inches was located from Sandy Creek to Turin on the northern end and from Altmar to Constableville on the southern end. This band will remain nearly stationary or oscillate a little farther south through 1030 PM. Winds up to 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect snow which will create blowing and drifting to the snow. A rumble of thunder is possible within the most intense portions of the snowband. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly under the more focused band of snow with visibilities under a quarter of a mile at times. Travel will be very difficult with deep snow covered roads. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 40. Other routes impacted include Route 13 between Williamstown and Pulaski and Route 26 between Constableville and Lowville

The sound you hear in the background is the salmon river, going pretty wild right now lol

Pulaski

This is what I've been waiting for lol

It's about to get good, at least for the time being..

Could be a surprise near the Fulton/Oswego area if the HRRR has a clue lol NWS has nothing in Fulton.. The models are sending this band south and then back north overnight, hrrr is just the most aggressive to the south..

Well the band has finally made it down here, see how long it sticks around..

Nws has dropped me from 11"-10"-8" and now 7" so if the Rgem/hrdps/3k and HRRR verify I would see more precip then that even at 10-1..

Well hopefully the rgem is on its game tonight as well lol

SNOWFALL REPORTS SINCE AROUND 7 AM ON 12/25 (LAKE EFFECT SNOW)... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New York... ...Cattaraugus County... Great Valley 3.0 in 1230 PM 12/26 Public ...Chautauqua County... Dunkirk 16.0 in 1230 PM 12/26 Public ...Erie County... 5 NW Eden 20.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Amateur Radio 1 W Alden 19.5 in 1245 PM 12/26 Trained Spotter 2 S Sloan 19.0 in 0100 PM 12/26 Public Buffalo 18.0 in 0152 PM 12/26 Public 1 N Lancaster 18.0 in 1220 PM 12/26 Public 2 NE Lancaster 18.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Amateur Radio 1 SSE Buffalo 17.1 in 0230 PM 12/26 Public 1 NNW Orchard Park 16.5 in 0100 PM 12/26 Public 1 N Cheektowaga 16.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Amateur Radio 2 NE Hamburg 14.3 in 0135 PM 12/26 Trained Spotter Alden 14.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Amateur Radio 2 N Hamburg 14.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Trained Spotter 1 S Lancaster 14.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Amateur Radio 2 NNE Harris Hill 13.5 in 0230 PM 12/26 Public 1 N Buffalo Airport 13.4 in 0150 PM 12/26 NWS Employee 1 NW Williamsville 7.0 in 0100 PM 12/26 NWS Employee 2 E Harris Hill 6.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Amateur Radio 2 WSW Snyder 6.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Amateur Radio ...Genesee County... 1 NW Batavia 9.0 in 0130 PM 12/26 Trained Spotter ...Jefferson County... Watertown 11.2 in 1200 PM 12/26 Cocorahs Henderson 9.0 in 0240 PM 12/26 Trained Spotter ...Niagara County... 2 NNW Rapids 4.0 in 0130 PM 12/26 Public ...Wyoming County... Attica 8.0 in 1200 PM 12/26 Amateur Radio

3k NAM finally catching on.. Ironically NWS keeps lowering totals lol

Looks like I'll be pulling an all nighter lol If this map verified kbuf would have to increase totals just south of me..(Some"orange" popping up) Hi rez Canadian is a little farther north with band placement, I'll be watching the trends until game time lol

Yeah just like last event that large bermuda high is going to be an issue..