wolfie09

Gfs

For here I will have to rely on the lake, what's new? Lol I just hope I don't get skunked there too...

Through hr 45 it's basically 1/2 foot from roc to buff..

Yeah we are cooked but trend is your friend for western portions of the viewing area..

Posted this on both threads since it talks about Synoptic and lake effect.. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... There will be two distinct phases for accumulating snowfall. The first will primarily affect far SW NY Thursday night, which roughly includes higher elevations of Chautauqua County, Western Cattaraugus County, and Southwestern Erie County. This area will get clipped by the heavier synoptic snow, potentially up to 12", on the cold side of a developing surface low moving from PA into the North Country by Friday morning. With the above in mind, issued a Winter Storm Warning for SW NY, knowing that this will need to be converted to a LES Warning after the synoptic snow ends. This should also match our neighbors across the NYS line. The 2nd phase will be lake effect that will develop during Friday, starting out as a relatively weak band initially over far Western NY during the morning. This should intensify however as the band develops a full lake fetch as the coldest air aloft (easily seen by following forecast 500mb temps) moves toward the region from the WSW. Expect a full blown LES band over the Buffalo and possibly northtowns by Friday eve, before the band begins to move S a little again Friday night and settles over the more traditional areas just South of Buffalo and over the Southtowns, where it should slowly weaken through Saturday. There should only be 1-2" from the synoptic snow, then a long enough break before the LES band begins. Therefore, went just with a LES Warning for Northern Erie and (Western portions of) Genesee and Wyoming counties. Adding up both the synoptic snow and LES snow, some areas could see 1-2` of snow. Briefly covering the pattern responsible...a well-formed longwave trough now covers much of the Central US. This has spawned a surface low with associated blizzard conditions over the Upper MidWest. But this feature allows a strong jet on the south side of the trough to spin up a secondary low over the Midwest and into PA by Thursday evening, while abundant moisture streams north from the Gulf of Mexico. Cold air over the midwest should then move east, changing any ongoing rain over to snow, at least for WNY. Highest snow totals will be closest to the PA state line/over the Chautauqua Ridge where there may be a little lake enhancement by Friday morning. Far less is expected further inland. Meanwhile, areas from near KROC east to the Eastern Lake Ontario may still wake up to grass instead of a White Christmas. But this will change, at least for lake snow-prone areas as colder air aloft rushes into the region later Friday. As noted above, a full blow LES band will be underway by Friday evening, and a similar lake response is expected ~Friday night ENE of Lake Ontario. This is fairly far out the the forecast though, so left a Watch in place. By Saturday, the LES bands should be ongoing. One concern will be another Canadian-sourced shortwave trough that will race ESE during the day. This may force the lake bands to back a little, particularly east of Lake Ontario, before being snapped back to the ESE later in the day or Saturday eve. With uncertainty and details still a little fuzzy, the Watch seems reasonable for now.

8.8" for kbuf on the European, roc 2.9".

Good run for buffalo..(not sure if any of this is LES)

We have a pretty good consensus wrt track, it's thermal profile thats the issue.. Majority of models bring this just east of Ontario, pretty much right over my head..

Here is the ukmet..I'll know in about 30 min if any of it is snow lol

3k nam is bad for all..

With the eastward track I now receive a little enhancement Christmas early afternoon, not much but enough to make it look white..

Man you goes on the south shore just needs this a touch east...The system actually goes over my head lol Big difference from what the NAM was spitting out yesterday..

I don't use any paid sites lol Especially since PW gives us the ukmet and euro..The only thing it doesn't have is the 6z/18z euro but that doesn't justify spending $10-$20 a month lol At least for me...

Sref remain the same FWIW..The track fits in with the rest of guidance but it's seems colder I guess lol

House Democrats responded to President Trump's call to increase stimulus payments to $2,000 per adult by saying they're ready to bring the measure to the floor by "unanimous consent" this week. Driving the news: Trump indicated in a video Tuesday evening that he won't sign the $900 billion coronavirus relief bill and $1.4 trillion government funding measure passed by Congress if it's not amended to increase stimulus payments. Trump's Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who was involved in negotiating the bill, said Monday that the $600 checks passed by Congress would go out next week. But Trump said he's asking Congress to send him an amended bill, calling on lawmakers to "increase the ridiculously low" amount Americans would receive for COVID relief to $2,000 per adult or $4,000 for a couple, and "get rid of wasteful and unnecessary items" in the spending bill.

Probably more reasonable..

Maybe it comes in a little east..

While the NAM cuts west the sref go north and are much less amped..

I guess its something, a little enhancement east of Ontario.. Need it a little east and I think the lake can deliver a white Christmas..

I bet they are just like the Gfs/icon and give us snow once the system passes our latitude and the front comes through..You can even see the little enhancement east of Ontario..(up top)

Sref have like this event from the start..

FWIW

Track wise the GFS was pretty close to the last several runs of the ukmet and last nights european..