wolfie09

The winter of 20/21..

Looks like it snowing pretty good a little to my north.. Adams NY

Coming down nicely right now, flakes more reminiscent of typical LES..

This is the HRRR hr 2 lol

Not sure any model had this stuff to my south.. Nothing to heavy but snow nonetheless..

Some decent members in there and yes member 15 is a member..

Jackpot Full 1/2"

This is has got to be the worst 2 year span in recorded history for pulaski, 80-100 inch deficit last year and who knows how much deficit we finish with this year..

That should be sent to webster under the definition of "dink and dunk" lol We haven't had nearly as many Snowfalls here, we just lucked out with one event or we would have a more embarrassing 3"-4" on the year.. This winter has tested my patience like no other..

Well we have the para..

Our year in a nutshell lol

Model guidances continue to have their difference with placement and timing of features for the weekend and into the first half of the next week, therefore forecast confidence remains uncertain. The upper level low over the western Great Lakes Saturday morning will allow for a shortwave to round eastern edge of the low, which will help pull the low northeastward. As this shortwave rounds into the eastern side of the low, it will enter into an area of vorticity along the Atlantic Coast which will help form a surface wave along the cold frontal boundary. This newly formed surface wave will deepen as energy is transferred from the primary surface low located over the western Great Lakes. The newly strengthening low will then make its way north crossing the Green and White Mountain ranges Saturday night. Meanwhile, the remnants of the surface low over the Great Lakes will make its way over the eastern Great Lakes during this time, before advancing northeast on Sunday. Additionally, in the wake of the cold front, cold air will be advected into the region, with air aloft at 850mb dropping to -8/-10C. All in all, what does this mean in terms of weather for the region? Saturday morning, the precipitation associated with the frontal passage from the night prior will be along eastern portions of the region (Northern Cayuga/Oswego counties eastward). This area of precipitation should remain overhead across the eastern portions for much of the day Saturday as the aforementioned surface low over the Atlantic Coast tracks northward across Vermont and New Hampshire. Much of this precipitation should fall in the form of snow, though in the lower elevations some rain/snow mix and eventually all rain will be possible due to diurnal heating. For the remainder of the region, chances for snow/mix of snow and rain/rain showers remain in the forecast due to wrap around moisture and remnants of the primary low crossing the area. Lake effect snow showers will form due to a combination of the cold air aloft crossing the lakes though this won`t be until late Saturday and Sunday night. There will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will be slightly steeper. Possibility of lake snows will remain in the forecast through the first part of the new work week as model guidances are slower to build in the surface ridge into the area.

Yeah I noticed the NWS issued an advisory about an hour ago.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Freezing drizzle. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Canadian shuts off the lake effect pretty quick.. Lake effect and synoptic..

Gfs not impressive wrt LES, weak West-WNW flow.. Starts to bounce back ahead of the next clipper..

You can see the difference from run to run as the CF sped up some..

Gfs has a quick shot of snow but not much precipitation on the NW side..

Icon delivers a little snow for CNY..

If the front slows down a bit we may be able to cash in more synoptic snow.. Going to be close but when isn't it..

Yeah it due to the position of the CF as the wave rides up it..All about timing..If the CF is a little quicker it could be more of a WNW flow so we'll see lol

Last nights ukmet wasn't much different than the GFS products, just a little east.. Would be nice to cash in on a little synoptic and LES lol

GEFS with a nice Look for this weekend.. Obviously some must be synoptic ..

Some light snow here with a little graupel mixed in..Temp has dropped a little below freezing ever since it started snowing..

Para also has synoptic snow with the developing secondary.. We'll see how this plays out lol

Gfs times it just right to give us a little synoptic snow.. Hammers the tug with lake effect..