wolfie09

GGEM better than the gfs verbatim but a good deal weaker then 12z..

0z gfs east and weaker.. Icon crushes it all together lol

Not really an organized band yet.. Little bit on the weakish side lol Flakes are nice but kind of intermittent..

HRW/WRF models definitely took somewhat of a jump towards the rgem..

Looks a little weak here compared to what guidance shows lol

Initial band will probably miss me just to the south, then we see where it sets up lol

Just so we all know, BW created a LES thread..

Just started snowing again..Fluff factor is nice as expected..

Around here its been more like 2 Centipeders..

Definitely been a solid month or so even though I have missed out on some big ones..But dink and dunks with the occasional big one adds up.. Haven't been taking care of my deck much lol

Yeah I'll be out the main band myself but I should get a taste every once in a while lol

Global Canadian fwiw

Once again some mixing issues on several of them..

Not the best look lol

Right here

Gfs has a follow up system as well..

Yeah this is a good set up for that area, light winds and high ratio snow..It will pile up quick lol

The system the european shows on the 17th is a different system all together.. It's just weak and disorganized for the 14th..So is the ukmet.. To much going on for the models to handle lol

Solid on the gfs.. Obviously numbers don't mean much at this point..

Icon sat into Sunday..

Still coming down at a decent clip, I'll take the NW flow freebies lol Probably won't add up to much.. If you look at the entire event on the gfs, winds shift around quite a bit..

End of December event.. AKE EFFECT STORM December 28-29, 2020 Maximum Snowfall: Lk. Ontario 13.0" (Sand Ridge), 9.0" (Fulton) Duration: 12 hours +/- Flake Scale: 1 flake * This lake effect event was localized to southern Oswego County, NY from Monday evening, December 28 to Tuesday morning, December 29. A lake effect band over the Tug Hill Plateau region shifted south into Oswego county where it became narrow but significant with 2"/hr rates. A narrow swath of 9-13 inches was observed over southern Oswego county. An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes with 850mb temperatures around -10 C over Lake Ontario Monday evening. A band of lake effect snow was ongoing east of Lake Ontario as a cold, westerly flow resided over Lake Ontario. Lake temperatures off Greece, NY were in the low 40's F during this event and produced ample lake induced instability with lake equilibrium levels around 10K. Snowfall rates east of Lake Ontario averaged 1-2"/hr over the Tug Hill early Monday evening. A wind shift from the northwest disrupted the lake effect band over the Tug Hill Plateau Monday evening and shifted it south over southern Oswego county by late Monday evening. Colder air moved overhead Monday night with 850mb temperatures falling to -14 C. Northwest flow allowed an upstream lake connection to take place and lake equilibrium levels rose to about 12k feet. A robust lake response began over southern Oswego county overnight and continued into Tuesday morning. Snowfall rates averaged 2"/hr overnight. The short duration of the event and relatively small area of significant accumulation in a sparsely populated area where there were only minor impacts prevented this event from earning more than a single star *.

Pretty much a dink and dunk LES event here..Band may swing through on a few occasions if the NWS is correct.. This Afternoon Snow showers likely, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tonight Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow between 10pm and 3am, then snow showers likely after 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Snow showers likely, mainly between 9am and 11am, then snow after 11am. High near 24. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely between 2am and 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 11. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Well NWS answered my question lol Radar imagery showing the widespread light snow from this morning quickly fading away. The last of the light snow will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region by mid afternoon. Some very limited lake response will produce a few more snow showers close to the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shore through the rest of the afternoon with very little additional accumulation. Skies have cleared just upstream across southern Ontario, but with weak northwest flow off the lakes it is unlikely much of this clearing will make it into our region. WNW flow becomes established later this evening across the eastern Great Lakes. 850MB temps will bottom out around -16C over Lake Ontario, allowing lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to around 8K feet overnight. A favorably deep saturated dendritic growth zone will be found beneath the inversion, with thermodynamic profiles suggesting high snow:water ratios. A strong band of convergence will develop overnight just offshore of the south shore of Lake Ontario as land breeze circulations strengthen, further organizing a single band of snow. High resolution model guidance continues to support an organized band of heavy lake effect snow later tonight through early Wednesday at the southeast corner of Lake Ontario. The Canadian GEM is the favored model for band placement, with the high-res WRF windows likely showing the typical southward bias with single bands of lake effect snow. CIPS analogs also support warning criteria snow downwind of Lake Ontario in this large scale pattern. Looking at the details, expect a band of lake effect snow to organize late this evening over central or northern Oswego County. Boundary layer flow will then veer, carrying the lake effect snow into southwest Oswego and far northern Cayuga counties late tonight through early Wednesday morning. The lake effect snow should reach peak intensity during this time period, with snowfall rates of 2" per hour possible. The band of snow will then move back north and east across Oswego County from mid morning through the afternoon and likely weaken considerably as some shear is introduced in the boundary layer. A weaker band of snow may get as far north as southern Jefferson County during the late afternoon and early evening. A weak trough axis will then move southeast across Lake Ontario Wednesday night. The band of snow should intensify as convergence increases along the trough axis, with a band of heavy snow moving south across Oswego County and back towards far northern Cayuga County. The single band of snow will then break up into a larger spray of multiple bands and snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario before daybreak Thursday, with minor accumulations spread from Orleans to Oswego counties and inland across the western Finger Lakes. This may bring some minor accumulations to the Rochester area just in time for the Thursday morning commute. The lake response off Lake Erie will be much less organized, with lower inversion heights, less synoptic scale moisture, and less favorable fetch. A few snow showers will develop across the higher terrain east of the lake this evening, then end by Wednesday morning. A few spots may see 1-2 inches across the higher terrain from the Boston Hills southward along the Chautauqua Ridge. Meanwhile a synoptic system will pass well to our south Wednesday afternoon and evening. The northern edge of this system may bring some light snow to the western Southern Tier later Wednesday afternoon and evening with very minor accumulations possible