wolfie09

Looks a little better than I thought it would..

Snowing marshmallows here which I'm sure everyone is enjoying lol

Once again this isn't a true WNW event.. Actually the winds are a carbon copy of last event.. Obviously doesn't mean it will be the same outcome lol Rgem has been wrong this year, happens to all of them..

The Sunday event kind of reminds me of the event several weeks back, models overdid confluence and the dying primary went into rochester lol Models are trying to find the weakness as there is an extension of HP in the atlantic as well..

Cmc squashes it, brings a storm up a couple days later..

Ukmet

Gfs is a close call verbatim.. Solid snow event..

Hrrr hammers N cayuga and SW Oswego..

GEFS mean..

And that's what happens when Surface/Ull ride inland lol I would expect it to transfer earlier with that confluence though..So we'll see.. Next run will be in bermuda lol

Gfs holds onto the primary this run lol

Rgem was on its own last night to lol 3k as of now also looks 280 ish.. Not that it's gonna help me anyway lol Actually makes it worse, missing just to the south..

Rgem FWIW. Still a little bit out there. Keeps LES going into Thursday..

Tuesday night and Wednesday our attention turns from the synoptic scale back to the mesoscale. Colder air will move back over Lake Ontario with 850MB temps bottoming out around -16C Wednesday morning. This will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to 8-10K feet Tuesday night and early Wednesday before gradually lowering late Wednesday. A favorably deep layer of dendritic growth will be found beneath the inversion, allowing for ideal fluff factor with thermodynamic profiles supporting large dendrite conglomerates. Forecast low level wind and thermal profiles suggest a strong land breeze convergence zone will develop just offshore of the south shore of the lake, supporting a well organized single band. Boundary layer flow will be westerly initially Tuesday evening, then veer slightly to the WNW later Tuesday night through Wednesday. This setup appears very similar to last night, with the heaviest snow focused perhaps just a little farther south most of the time. Expect a band of lake effect snow to organize Tuesday evening over central or northern Oswego County, then drift south Tuesday night to southern Oswego County, possibly clipping northern Cayuga County as well. The band will likely go through several oscillations late Tuesday night through Wednesday between roughly Scriba Point and Fair Haven. CIPS analogs support the idea of another localized warning criteria lake effect snow event at the southeast corner of Lake Ontario, as does the Canadian RGEM. Given the above expectations, issued a Watch for Oswego and northern Cayuga counties from late Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. Localized accumulations of greater than 9" look possible, especially across southern and western Oswego County and far northern Cayuga County. Lake effect potential looks much weaker off Lake Erie during this period. A few snow showers will develop on westerly flow Tuesday night across the higher terrain east of the lake, with spotty accumulations of 1-2 inches possible. This will taper off by Wednesday morning as inversion heights lower over the lake. Outside lake effect areas it will be dry and partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A synoptic scale wave will then pass to the south of the region Wednesday. This may spread some light snow into the western Southern Tier from late morning through the afternoon with minor accumulations possible. A large area of strong Canadian high pressure will continue to ridge in from the northwest Wednesday night keeping conditions dry across a good chunk of the region. This will continue to keep any light snow associated with the synoptic wave passing by to our south over the western Southern Tier and points south. Otherwise, decent convergence within the lake aggregate trough over southeastern Lake Ontario will keep localized lake effect snow going across far southwestern Oswego and northern Cayuga counties through the first half of the night. Winds will then turn more northerly during the second half of Wednesday night. This will eventually weaken the band, but not before potentially shoving it onshore, possibly bringing some lighter accumulations to areas along and near the Lake Ontario shorelines of northeastern Orleans, Monroe and Wayne counties, before falling apart as it moves further inland by early Thursday morning. Expect an additional few inches across northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga and southwestern Oswego counties, with an inch or so along the northeastern Orleans to northwestern Wayne County shorelines Wednesday night. Aside from a few lingering lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario Thursday morning, expect a mainly dry, but seasonally cold day.

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From late Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times with snow covered roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute on Wednesday.

Plenty of cold enough that's for sure lol

Improvement on the euro..

I lived just east of Albany in 2007 and we had 16"-17" ..Parts of CNY had 30"-40"..

I think it's unknown at this time.. Calling it "unexpected"..So I don't think he was sick..

GEFS members meh for tomorrow..

New map starting 7pm this evening..

You always have the ARW lol

Ukmet with a miller B..