wolfie09

Gfs looks decent Thursday/Friday, setting up another LES event..

Matches pretty well with the gfs wind field off Ontario (kfzy)..

Here was the latest RGEM, starts west veers WNW and then backs north as it retracts..

850s down to about-20c tommorow after the front, some guidance showing lake snows in the single digits, could be some real fluff..

18z was kinda disappointing haha Some runs have shown nearly 100" for Carol the next 2 weeks

That's the type of pattern the coast likes to see not us lol Way to much confluence.. "Jacksonville rule" lol If you see convection near northern florida it's probably not making it here lol.. Not always the case but we would litterly need due north or retrograde. Obviously it will be different next time around..

Hrrr likes central Oswego county tomorrow evening into Monday.. As usual I'll probably just stick with the RGEM on band placement lol

Same for D3..As it stands now..

Slight probability of 4" east of Ontario..

Yeah it misses us Friday but hits us sat/sun lol Like you said long week ahead..

Forecast as of now.. Sunday Snow showers, mainly after 9am. High near 28. Southeast wind 7 to 14 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow showers. Low around 11. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%

Gonna start posting our potential small little event tomorrow evening in this thread.. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Off of Lake Ontario Sunday night into Monday, a convergent lake band will become better organized Sunday night into Monday behind the earlier passing trough axis. This band will mostly focus on areas along the southeast Lake Ontario shoreline, extending inland across NE Wayne, far Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties, where the greatest snow potential is expected. 850H temps holding steady around -19C through Monday morning over the approx. 6C lake temperature will help create equilibrium heights over and just southeast of Lake Ontario to around 7kft. Snowfall amounts for Sunday night into Monday of 3 to 6 inches with a few higher amounts will be possible for far northern Cayuga County and the southwestern half of Oswego County, with amounts diminishing from there to the north and west

Gfs for Tuesday.. About 1/4"-1/3" of liquid.. Obviously Kuchera showing higher than 10-1.. Plenty cold enough..

End of week discussion.. Light snow from the synoptic system will come to an end Tuesday night and transition to lake enhanced snow and then lake effect through Wednesday. The best chance for lake effect snow will be off of Lake Ontario, but areas southeast of Lake Erie can also expect some light lake snows. An area of low pressure over the southern U.S. will track northeast across the Tennessee Valley and to the Mid-Atlantic Coast from Thursday morning through Friday morning. The storm will then track northeast along the coast and quickly intensify. Timing with this system varies between the model guidance, but generally the pattern will be active from Thursday morning onward for most of the area. Behind the passing system, lake effect once again looks like it fire up off of both lakes starting Friday night. Temperatures during the long term period will be below normal for the entire period, and with a few days possibly as much as 20 degrees below normal.

True dink and dunk fashion lol An area of low pressure will track northeast across the region Monday night into Tuesday, causing light snow to overspread the region. Snow should start over WNY late Monday evening and continue through Tuesday afternoon, especially for the North Country. Guidance on this system is still a bit split with a few models tracking the system a bit farther south. Which it then strengthening along the coast with the storms western shield sticking around the eastern half of the forecast area for a longer time period. Some other guidance tracks the storm a bit more north and quicker, reducing the amount of time it influences the area because the systems strengthens farther north along the coast. Right now looks like 1 to 2 inches for most areas, and 2 to 4 inches for Oswego and Lewis counties.

Lol ..It's only one run of one model, it will change.. Oswego county only gets 2"-3" as well, boosted by a little LES at the end of the run...

Rgem for LES Sunday evening as well as Tuesday.. Tues event does include some enhancement/LES..

Yeah RGEM is pretty weak sauce as well..

Eps for Friday.. Primary into the lakes, secondary off the coast..

Getting trolled by the NAM for Tuesday lol

Latest HRRR gives most of Oswego county some snow shower activity starting tomorrow night..With the main focus being a 280-290 vector.. Obviously this model isn't the greatest wrt LES..

Forecasted teleconnections

Going to be hard to get a full cutter in this pattern but obviously things change lol Nice banana high..

Would be nice if this band came a touch south lol Snowing at the pulaski exit 36 north cam..Mix of sun and clouds here..

It's tries but the European loves to squash everything lol