wolfie09

Not bad so far..

That was short lived though, the last gasp of the CF lol Probably closer to an inch ish or so..

The initial band doesn't look that impressive yet but it has grown a bit..I don't think the warning starts till 6pm..

Like you would expect from lake effect lol Big fluffy flakes falling straight down, zero wind..I probably only have about an inch (eyeballing it), most of that in the last 20 min..

Even a tiny tiny bit of yellow showing up lol

Ripping out right now as this last strong band moves through..

Another 2"-3 snowfall on Friday.. Primary can only make it so far north with all that confluence..

Sounds about right, maybe 2" if lucky lol

That confluence on the CMC crushes everything lol Until D10..

Getting some steady snow here with some nice size dendrites.. Looks like some heavier echoes poised to move through..

That band is expected to be on the lighter side, guess we'll see.. Snow starting to pick up some, now getting light snow lol Cold westerly flow will allow a few light snow showers to linger across the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill following the general snowfall, but this will be very light through the daytime hours.

Yeah we'll see lol It was always expected to start west and veer WNW this evening before backing north tomorrow morning.. Even the NWS "280ish" call is somewhat a westerly flow..Band could set up just to my south.. Gfs Wind field..

Flakes have commenced.. Pretty much just spitting flurries at the moment lol

Starting to enter Oswego county..

Nam combines the moisture from the front with the moisture from the coastal..We see like 3hrs worth of snow shower activity.. Seems to be missing the western extent of the coastal..

NWS morning AFD.. Overall system moves through fairly quickly with a rather short period of fairly steady snow. Model liquid equivalent not overly impressive coming in near or just shy of 0.10 inches. Likely looking at snow-water ratios in the 18/20:1 range, so a nice fluffy snow with most accumulations limited to 1-2 inches. Could be a bit of lake enhancement east of the lakes, so perhaps some localized higher amounts near 3 inches for the higher terrain east of the lakes (Boston Hills, Chautauqua Ridge, and Tug Hill). Accumulations will be an inch or less for the Genesee Valley, western Finger Lakes, and Black River Valley. Wind speeds picking up this afternoon in wake of the cold front with gusts of 25-30 mph. With the fresh snow, may see some blowing and drifting snow in open areas. The reinforcing shot of cold air behind the front will steepen low- level lapse rates through the dentritic growth zone which will develop lake effect snows east of the lakes as we move into tonight. Hi-res guidance not overly impressed with the activity developing off Lake Erie which seems reasonable considering reduced inversion heights near 5kft, limiting accumulation potential there. Inversion heights better east of Lake Ontario closer to 8kft which likely will support a period of accumulating lake snows within a 280-ish low level flow, targeting northern Wayne through Oswego county with several inches possible before Monday morning. Winter Weather Advisory posted for this area as outlined below. Quite cold areawide tonight with wind chills below zero. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The lake effect snow that developed Sunday night will continue on into Monday. Of the two plumes off of each lake, the lake snows off of Lake Ontario will be more impressive. This is due to the fact that ridging will work its way east, impacting Lake Erie first. As the surface high works its way over the region further, its associated warm air advection will act to lower the inversion heights, diminishing the lake response. Expect the lake response off of Lake Erie to deplete by mid morning on Monday. On the contrary, the effects of the ridging won`t impact the Lake Ontario band until Monday afternoon, which will allow for an additional couple of inches to fall southeast of Lake Ontario Monday morning. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave will round the closed low over Northern Manitoba and Ontario, which will push an area of low pressure across the region Monday night into Tuesday. As the low crosses overhead, expect widespread light snow across the region. Snow should start over southwestern NY late Monday evening and continue through Tuesday afternoon (especially for the eastern portions of the region). Model guidance has begun to agree with the tracking of this system, crossing the the low to the south of the region and then strengthening off the east coast, before traveling northeast. However during its time off the east coast models begin to differ on how fast the low will depart north. The longer the low sticks around, the more time the western shield of precipitation falls over the eastern portions of the region. As of now, a general 1 to 2 inches is possible for most of the region, with 2 to 4 inches possible along the eastern counties of the forecast area. As the synoptic snows come to an end Tuesday night, a northwest wind and leftover moisture from the departing system will allow for some lake enhancement southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Though the better chances for lake enhancement appear off of Lake Ontario.

More banding in N/C NJ .. Stuff at the coast is probably rain/mix..

We are still like 100" to average.. No chance here .. Actually in the last 2 years combined we have yet to reach a "normal" year lol

Yeah tough call tonight..Winds look to be WNW/NW Over the lake but west/WSW over land trying to push these bands north lol As usual we have 2 camps, RGEM, NMM and HI rez Canadian who like Central Oswego vs HRRR, ARW, NSSl who like southern Oswego, northern cayuga lol Pretty much nowcasting time anyway..

NMM.. Hopefully the southern bias is in play here haha.. Not to dissimilar to the rgem just a little farther south..

Front slowly pushing east..

Rgem wants to keep this farther north than the WRF models which is no surprise lol

Ukmet

Here was the gfs..

Yeah that's total lol This is the 24 hr for Thursday/Friday..