wolfie09

Not sure if this enhancement or what but starting to come decent with some pretty nice dendrites..

Pretty clear what model they are riding with lol Even the jackpot area..

Buffalo changed there snow map around a little bit.. One thing being overlooked is wind speed, GFS has an average of 7mph almost the entire event with a max of 11mph out of the west..(kfzy)

Hrrr FWIW

Weak sauce on the euro.

Ukmet keeps the primary going longer but pretty dry..

Few mixed precipitation ones in there..

GEFS

Cmc also with decent follow up LES event, fluctuating West-NW verbatim..

The real question is what type of changes are we going to see from now till game time lol We all know it's coming..haha

Now last event like that CNY had to deal with dry slotting issues lol Something to keep an eye on as we get closer..

Yup..I wanna see that primary/old primary north lol

Still hanging on to some decent snow shower activity, looks to end relatively soon..

Not the most scientific way but you can see the HP isobars are weaker towards WNY/WPA allowing the primary/old primary to keep sliding north lol

Bottom line for this period will be the continuation of a low confidence forecast as models continue to struggle with the overall evolution of the large scale pattern. There are some recent trends however that the large vortex that has been spinning over southcentral Canada will become dislodged and drift southeastward over the upper Great Lakes late this week into the weekend as a trough begins to dig across the West. By late in the weekend into the start of the new work week, the closed low or possibly open wave by this point, will move into the Northeast/southeastern Canada. Meanwhile at the surface, a wavy/stationary boundary stretching from the Gulf to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will lead to the development of several possible low pressure systems, either riding up the East Coast or further offshore. The two main drivers of just where these areas of low pressure will track will be: How far east/southeast a large area of Canadian high pressure to our west/northwest builds toward our area, and the position of the upper closed low/open wave as it slides east/southeast. Putting it all together with regards to sensible weather; the next piece of upper level shortwave energy pinwheeling around the main upper vortex will cross the area Friday morning bringing the chance for snow showers during this time. Next piece of energy tries to move in from the southwest late Friday night into Saturday. The best chance of some showers will be across areas south of Lake Ontario, as strong high pressure ridged across eastern NY/New England will try to keep areas east of Lake Ontario mainly dry. The highest probability for some organized synoptic snowfall during this period now appears to be Saturday night and Sunday as a strengthening area of low pressure moves up the eastern seaboard. The track, speed and strength of this system will determine just how much snow will fall and how far west it will reach. Conditions may then relax some for the start of the new work, with just the chance for some lake effect snow showers downwind of the Lakes. As stated above, overall forecast confidence during this time period remains low. Temperatures will remain below average through the period with daytime highs in the teens to low 20s, and lows ranging from below zero across the North Country to the single digits and low teens elsewhere.

Pregame NAM Friday night..

Icon has a bigger one day 6/7..

Icon for this weekend..

Same way as uploading a photo but it can't surpass 1.95mb.. This was as many hours as I could get on the rgem without going over lol

It's like deja vu, litterly lol Last event you had Rgem, Hrdps and NMMB showing more of 280ish (central Oswego) flow..The rest of guidance (Nssl,arw, hrrr etc) kept it farther south at more of a 290-300 flow..Well they are pretty much all the same for this event lol Band looks to move around some..

3k nam a little on the weak side.. Backs the band north tomorrow ahead of the Next SW just like the Rgem although the NWS didn't mention it lol

12z hrrr Fwiw

Colder west-northwest flow develops behind the wave tonight allowing lake effect snow to redevelop southeast of the lakes. 850 mb temperatures lowering to near -16C will allow inversion heights to gradually rise. Expect a band of lake effect snow to organize this evening over central or northern Oswego County, then drift south later tonight to southern Oswego County, clipping northern Cayuga County. Several inches of snow will be possible in this area. Lake effect potential looks weaker off Lake Erie with higher terrain seeing around 2 inches. Heavy lake snow will continue beyond this period southeast of Lake Ontario as discussed below. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Secondary front moves through overnight Tuesday with another shot of colder air filtering in over Lake Ontario with H850MB temps falling to around -16C/-18C by early Wednesday morning. This will send lake induced equilibrium levels up to 6-8K feet through mid-afternoon Wednesday then start to lower by late Wednesday. Moisture extending through the DGZ found beneath the inversion will allow for ideal large dendrite conglomerates with snow ratios likely exceeding 25:1 in this environment. Wind flow will make some adjustments over the course of this event but will likely provide enough residence time under WNW flow to produce warning criteria for NE Cayuga and SE Oswego county. This continues to be supported by the 09/00Z RGEM/Canadian-NH/NAM and HRRR, based on latest guidance and CIPS analogs have issued a LES Warning through Wednesday night. Off Lake Erie, very little is anticipated with a less then favorable supporting environment. Very little moisture extending through the DGZ and the shorter fetch under WNW flow will likely not support much in the way of accumulating snows. Although, there could be some snow showers early in the morning Wednesday, then drier air and a lowering inversion shuts any activity down by Wednesday afternoon. Not forgotten, there is a weak wave that ripples by to our south late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. It appears right now that most if not all precipitation associated with this system will likely scurry along the NY/PA boarder clipping the S. Tier. Wednesday night, lake snows off Lake Ontario will continue throughout a majority of the night. It likely won`t be until late in the night that wind flow turns more northerly which then weaken the band and pushes it onshore. This could possibly bringing some lighter accumulations to areas along and near the Lake Ontario shorelines of northeastern Orleans, Monroe and Wayne counties, before falling apart as it moves further inland by early Thursday morning. Expect an additional few inches across northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga and southwestern Oswego counties, with an inch or so along the northeastern Orleans to northwestern Wayne County shorelines Wednesday night. Aside from a few lingering lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario Thursday morning, expect a mainly dry, but seasonally cold day.

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