wolfie09

Concerning the lake effect off Lake Erie, flow initially in lake convective layer is from sw so it now appears the strongest band will begin over far northern Erie into southern portions of Niagara county. Snowfall rates may exceed 1" per hour for at least a few hours on Fri evening before winds veering to more wsw push the increasing band of snow across more of Erie county, settling to the Southtowns but likely remaining north of the more typical lake effect snow areas in southern Erie county (eg. Boston Hills) and south into Ski Country of Southern Tier. Instead, this event appears to be centered on South Buffalo and the Southtowns and over the city of Buffalo much of the time as well. Stronger winds will push plume of lake snow into Genesee and Wyoming counties overnight Friday night into Saturday, with heavier snow as far Corfu, Attica and maybe Batavia. Overall this snow band will produce 1"/hr snow rates with best chance of seeing 2" per hour rates later Fri night into Sat morning. The snow band will begin to diminish late Saturday afternoon but likely will not completely end until wsw winds become more disorganized and drier air moving in takes toll on the lake effect later Saturday evening. Strong and gusty winds 20-30mph with gusts to 40 mph at times will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow and will make the snow hard to measure at times. The blowing and drifting and low visibility will be big issue with this lake event compared to the one that Buffalo Metro experienced the day after Christmas. This will be big factor in potential hazardous travel conditions. Turning attention to Lake Ontario, the models are very locked in that the heaviest snows occur from later Friday evening through early Saturday evening over much of Jefferson county and into northern portions of Lewis county, north of Lowville. At this time the more sw persistent wind direction does not appear to favor Tug Hill for significant accumulations but instead will favor Saint Lawrence River and Watertown/Fort Drum. Snowfall totals still could easily exceed a foot for these areas especially as the primary band of snow off Lake Ontario will not be oscillating much. Have opted to leave winter storm watch for now with a later starting time for heavier lake effect to develop, but could see this being converted to a warning overnight tonight. Away from the lake effect into Saturday, do not expect much snow though some snow showers and flurries could make it as far as western Monroe county off Lake Erie. Temps will be chilly everywhere with highs in the low to mid 20s and apparent temps remaining in the single digits above zero. There could be some partial sunshine though. Once the lake effect diminishes then ends late Saturday night, weaker wave moving through may be some general light snow the area on Sunday. Primary forcing for this passes north, so kept pops in the chancy range for now. Temps will remain chilly on Sunday with highs in the 20s and apparent temps again in the single digits above zero.

Close enough to keep an eye on..

Advisory(warning tug) level snow verbatim for Tuesday, obviously it will change, they all do lol

Sunday and Tuesday system on the euro..

Gfs over the next 7 days as it has a mix of LES and synoptic chances all week..

Gfs still looking pretty good for Monday.. Actually starts the band just to my south at like 280 vector, slowly backs north, about a 12-18 hour window before the next SW moves through..

Icon took a step back..

Some very light snow gets into ny state..

As expected gfs came north but the northern energy just doesn't dig enough.. Ukmet showed this exact scenario yesterday or the day before..

Kind of a double edge sword for me lol Last thing I want is to be fringed and lose out on any LES potential from the northern stream, but if we can get a decent widespread event then I'm cool with it lol

Need that northern stream to dig deeper..

3k fwiw..

Strong winds may get this band into Oswego county lol Wouldn't be much but I also shouldn't be getting snow from a SW flow lol

Looks like the SREF mean and a majority of the GEFS members..Still have a fighting chance lol Can't do it with southern stream alone..

Sref mean with a bump NW..

Gfs is much weaker with Tues system and so was the European..No more rain at least for now..Has a quick follow-up wave before the lake fires up again..

6z Euro..Still needs a lot of work to get get it this far NW lol

Couple decent ones, more so for the coast..

Global Canadian not the biggest fan of the sat-mon period, goes to town after the Monday/Tues system..

Gfs still cutting that mon night/Tues system over the eastern great lakes, pretty big lake response follows..