wolfie09

Here comes another one lol

Still not looking great as it's trying to get its act together..

Gfs with another quick shot at LES behind this weekend system as it looks like we have a SW swinging through.. Obviously wind direction is subject to change..

New map starting at 10am.. If verified it would bring me into the 13"-15" range for a storm total..This is also the"low end" with 8"-12" as the high end..

12z gfs

Gfs shows a similar scenario as the SR models with the band lifting north this afternoon and dropping back south overnight..

According to the NWS and most SR guidance the band will be lifting north, possibly as far as southern jefferson.. Tonight it should gain a little strength and drop back south..

Rgem wants to hug the shoreline..

850mb winds were out of the west the entire time..I figured shear may be an issue..Same closer to the surface between 900-1000 mb..Kind of all over the place lol Small window this afternoon into evening that has limited low level shear according to the gfs..

No sir..I'm about a couple miles from there..I used to work right across the street at the Fulton group lol I'm not even sure if it's considered the"dot" but it's where they keep most of their sand, salt and some of their trucks.. It's on the outskirts of the village..

Well for once I hope the WRF models are correct lol

People around here are incredible.. I have woke up several times to find one of my neighbors snowblowing my driveway lol I live right across from the DOT and even they help.. He took all the snow that got plowed in front of my driveway and moved it lol

Up to 6.25" here as the band is starting to weaken..

Saturday, mid-level closed low over Manitoba Canada swings the next shortwave towards the region. This will bring in the next round of accumulating light snows through Saturday night LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lots of uncertainty during this period. The only thing that appears certain is a continuation of below normal temperatures. Could be a fairly active period (per the GFS) or a bit quieter and mainly dry (ECMWF) as a large sfc high builds in from Canada behind the Saturday/Saturday night system.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Lake effect snow east/southeast of Lake Ontario has remained relatively disorganized through the night thus far. This might be changing shortly as recent radar trends showing signs of a single plume structure developing just offshore of the south shore of Lake Ontario coincident with strengthening lake breeze circulations. Timing looks to be consistent with several higher resolution models suggesting a strengthening single band between 09z and 15z focusing on the southeast corner of Lake Ontario. The lake effect snow should reach peak intensity during this time period, with snowfall rates of 2" per hour possible. The band of snow will then move back north and east across Oswego County later this morning through the afternoon and likely weaken as shear profiles increase. A weaker band of snow may get as far north as southern Jefferson County late this afternoon and early this evening. A weak trough axis will then move southeast across Lake Ontario to night. The band of snow should intensify as convergence increases along the trough axis, with a band of heavy snow moving south across Oswego County and back towards far northern Cayuga County. The single band of snow will then break up into a larger spray of multiple bands and snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario before daybreak Thursday, with minor accumulations spread from Orleans to Oswego counties and inland across the western Finger Lakes. This may bring some minor accumulations to the Rochester area just in time for the Thursday morning commute

Winds should start backing WSW in the next few hours.. Rgem has this band drying up pretty good.. This evening a new band should get going and drop south relatively quickly..

Just a couple reports so far out of Oswego county..

Flakes are tremendous right now as this band tries to hang on lol..This morning when I awoke they were on the smallish side.

Looks like another 2"-4"/3"-5" type system..

Touch under 5".. Still snowing pretty good..

European has about 1/4"-1/3" liquid region wide..Cold once again, maybe some more high ratio stuff.

Yeah Dave , starting to really come down.. We'll see how long it last.. lol

Started to really pick up about 30 min ago.