wolfie09

Sunday, any lingering synoptic precipitation will end early as mid level moisture carries towards eastern New York and New England. There will likely be a limited lake response south of Lake Ontario Sunday morning as a weak surface trough drops southward, with shallow cold air advection behind it. Light snow, mainly north of the NYS Thruway could accumulate a fluffy half inch or so through the morning hours before increased wind shear ends the lake bands through the afternoon hours. This shallow cold air advection will also lower the snow dendritic growth zone, such that any patchy freezing drizzle late Saturday night may return back to just plain snow, with added lake moisture. There may be a few breaks in the clouds Sunday afternoon for some sunshine, especially east of Lake Ontario. Any clearing will be temporary as another system brings an increase in clouds through the evening hours of Sunday. Sunday night a deep long wave trough will dive well down into the Southern Plains, with surface high pressure over the Western Great Lakes. Meanwhile a surface low will advance northward along the east coast...though remaining well offshore. This synoptic setup will produce a baroclinic boundary that stretches from near Texas northeastward towards New England. A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event, with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south...which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night and through the day Tuesday. There is still model uncertainty with the evolution of this event, in particular the placement of strong low level moisture advection and core of the LLJ. The 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower and westward with the axis of low level winds...which would aid in accent and overall snowfall accumulations, while the 00Z GFS is a bit faster with the LLJ and eastward, which would lower the impacts from the jet streaks for our region. For now we will highlight the snow potential of at least a few inches, possibly more (00Z ECMWF/some members of the 00Z GEFS solutions) in the HWO product.

Gfs

Icon

Gfs always finds a way to keep the heaviest to the south lol

That would be my preferred solution lol Don't have to worry about downsloping..

Rgem fwiw Still in its LR..Still showing some heavier precipitation for Monday with a steady stream of moisture.. By 1am Tuesday rgem already has 7"-9" using Kuchera for the eastern great lakes..

Bit of a different look on the icon..

I was actually going to bring that up lol They only mention the gfs/european in the AFD..They usually always hug the Canadian guidance.. GGEM is the farthest north.. A more similar look to the GEFS and Eps..

LR NAM

An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night. A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active weather pattern during the period. There are some model disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support (trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty. Snow will taper to some snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario on Tuesday night. Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs approaching freezing.

Pretty much identical..Not that it can't change though lol But it's what it shows at the moment..

850s a little colder than 0z..

European temps..

Pretty close to WPC guidance..

Verbatim it's definitely better especially the northern cutoff.. Here was 0z..

European looks better than 0z..

Yeah we will most likely see a little overrunning precipitation Monday.. Just some light stuff..I think the NWS mentioned it this morning..

Precip between both systems, WPC..

Yeah TS, pushed some heavier snows NW.. 6z vs 12z

Ukmet at the end of its run..Snow breaking out..