wolfie09

Some 6z guidance Not seeing as much DS on any model, hopefully it stays that way lol

NAM fwiw

Could be but guidance is in pretty good agreement at the moment with between 0.6"-0.9" liquid for Kroc..They are probably going with lower ratios then us weenies are lol Or the drier models..It's a good starting point..See how SR guidance comes into play.. The map is till Tuesday 1pm, could be some stuff after that..

Binghamton

Low end

High end

Exact number

Para

End of the 3k..

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Perfect snow weather for me.. I'd rather 20s then teens..

Maybe from the combination of snow and ice? I can remember several times having an advisory for 5"-10" lol Over a 12hour period..

Going old school with the hpc

That's actually old but forecast still shows all snow lol Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

There is slightly better model agreement for this next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs approaching freezing.

A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with widespread snowfall arriving late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Still some uncertainty with where the greatest snowfall accumulations may lie, with current thinking in the Southern Tier and into the Niagara frontier, where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall by Monday afternoon, with snowfall rates weakening Monday evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, this lull in the snow intensity will be short lived as a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 300 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally, a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south, which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet, could bring heavier snowfall late Monday night and into Tuesday afternoon. This swath of synoptic snow will likely bring more significant accumulations to the area Monday night into Tuesday. There is still sizable uncertainty with the evolution of this event, in particular with the placement of the strong low level moisture advection and core of the LLJ. Latest 12Z model guidance has trended the second wave Monday night further to the southeast--if these trends hold, the bulk of the heavier snowfall will likely track closer to the finger lakes region. Tuesday night, cold air advection embedded in a NW flow may bring lake effect snow to areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Moisture will diminish quickly as a spoke of a strong surface high passes across our region, which will also lower lake inversion heights. As far as temperatures go for the period, the cold pattern will continue to hold with highs in the low 20s and upper teens, and lows in the teens in the evening hours. Tuesday night will be particularly cold, with overnight temperatures struggling to climb out of the single digits.

850s are not even that cold..

Go by what the NWS says lol Let's be real they aren't looking at Kuchera maps lol

I don't think what the European is showing is downsloping, we just miss the heaviest stuff to the south..