wolfie09

Hrrr says enjoy a little sleet and freezing rain lol Albeit at the tail end which is plausible..

Ukie

Para

Time to dust off correlation coefficient..

Just don't look at the icon lol It's an outlier though so we toss..

Rgem

12k and 3k..

8"-15 for most of Oswego county.. Seems like they are on top of things lol Washington's Birthday Occasional snow, mainly after 11am. High near 25. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. Low around 18. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before noon. High near 20. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible

8"-16" for buffalo.. Washington's Birthday Snow. High near 25. Light northwest wind becoming north 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. Areas of blowing snow after 4am. Low around 19. Northeast wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before 11am. High near 20. Northeast wind 8 to 16 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

If you look at rochester for example they have as much as 17" falling.. Washington's Birthday Occasional snow. High near 26. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. Areas of blowing snow after 3am. Low around 20. Blustery, with a light north wind becoming northeast 15 to 20 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. Areas of blowing snow before 7am. High near 21. Northeast wind 10 to 17 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

The warning starts at 7 pm(same with the snow map) but we see the light overrunning between 10am-3pm which doesn't seem to be included..

That doesn't include what ever we receive tomorrow during the day, which is like 1"-3" or so..

Pretty similar the last few updates..

Some of these give me pause for sure lol

I did but I deleted it because I thought it was old lol After a brief lull in the snow Monday afternoon, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 160+ knot 300 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally, a mid level trough just east of the Four Corners Region will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. The 12Z ECMWF continues to better align with the GFS in maintaining the axis of this jet closer to the eastern seaboard, while the latest GGEM solution keeps it a bit further to the southeast. Nonetheless, this LLJ will aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south, which combined with the increased lift from the passage of the mid level trough and jet dynamics, will bring greater confidence for a heavier snowfall late Monday night and into Tuesday afternoon. This swath of synoptic snow will likely bring more significant accumulations to the area Monday night into Tuesday. This swath of synoptic snow will likely bring more significant accumulations to the area Monday night into Tuesday, and we will maintain the winter storm watch as is with this forecast package. Looking at CIPS analogs, most of the events within the analogs did bring warning criteria snows to our region. What could hold back snowfall totals will be the placement of the SW/NE oriented baroclinic boundary aloft, and if it will back westward enough to allow warmer air aloft to bring a mixture of sleet or freezing rain along the southern fringes of the CWA. Model guidance continues to keep this boundary just far enough eastward that the area will still likely see an all snow forecast, but latest model guidance nudging it a bit further northward warrants close monitoring moving closer to the event. As the system pushes northeastward, colder air will filter in from the northwest and cyclonic flow will allow for some brief lake enhancement south of Lake Ontario through Tuesday afternoon, before the dendritic growth zone loses the deeper synoptic moisture. Upslope flow in the Southern Tier and on the Tug Hill may lead to a minor increase snowfall amounts in those areas through Tuesday. For snowfall totals, the potential for over 9 inches remains possible, with majority of the snow falling Monday night and into Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon a dry slot will be pushing northward across the state line as a deformation band of snow across WNY lifts northward, with synoptic snow finally tapering down. Tuesday night, cold air advection embedded in a NW flow could bring lake effect snow back to areas south and southeast of Lake Ontario. Moisture will diminish through the night as a spoke of a strong surface high passes across our region, which will also lower lake inversion heights. Behind this trough Tuesday night will be cold with single digit lows across WNY, and below zero east of Lake Ontario. If we can clear out sooner (outside of lingering lake clouds) several areas could drop even colder than what is forecasted.

Depends on ratios.. It's only 7"-10" region wide at 10-1.. They check soundings not Kuchera..So we'll see I guess lol

Pretty good consensus wrt precip, 3/4"-1" liquid region wide on almost all guidance.. Enjoy and stop stressing over exact numbers lol

LR HRRR pretty far N/W as well..No mixing concerns verbatim for C/W NY..