wolfie09

Nice pics man.. Been feeling better?

0z moved a little north wrt placement..

Was just checking out the lake effect archives for the winter of 2010-2011 earlier today, that's what keeps me going lol Had some monster events.. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Through this evening, an approaching mid-level trough and cooling temperatures aloft will result in some lake effect snow showers developing across Western New York. This activity will be disorganized, but there is a potential for heavier snow showers to lower visibility below a half mile producing a quick inch or two of snow through 9 p.m. Some mesoscale guidance captures this, showing mobile bands with low confidence in band placement. A mid level trough will move east across the Great Lakes tonight through Saturday, allowing cold air to deepen with time. Inversion heights are initially quite shallow through the first half of tonight. The approach of a mid level shortwave and associated H7 cold pool and deeper moisture will then allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to around 10K feet briefly on Saturday, before inversion heights lower again by Saturday evening. Off Lake Ontario... A few brief bursts of snow showers will develop through the first half of tonight southeast of the lake, but these will likely remain disorganized through most of the night given the relatively low inversion heights. A band of lake effect snow should then become better organized late tonight and especially Saturday morning across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties as a convergence zone strengthens along the south shore of the lake. The Canadian GEM suggests a well defined upstream connection to Georgian Bay will develop during this time frame, aiding in organizing and strengthening the band. The band of snow will then likely become less organized during the afternoon given the higher sun angle at this time of year forcing more diurnal mixing, which tends to break up lake effect into cellular convection. Following the GEM, there is a decent likelihood of low end warning criteria snowfall in a few locations from Wayne to Cayuga County where bands persist the longest. Expect totals of 6-9 inches in the most persistent bands, with most of that falling late tonight through the first half of Saturday. Farther west in Monroe County, expect the most persistent snow to fall late tonight through Saturday morning along the Route 104 corridor, with 3-5 inches possible in persistent bands from Hilton and Greece to Webster, with much lower amounts farther south. With this in mind, converted the Watch to an Advisory for Monroe County. Farther west, a band of snow with origins from the main body of Lake Huron may bring a few inches of snow in narrow bands across portions of Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties, possibly clipping the northeast corner of Erie County. This would mostly fall later tonight through Saturday morning. Off Lake Erie... There is a substantial amount of ice cover across most of the lake, but the latest visible satellite imagery from a few days ago still showed a large enough area of open water and thin/broken ice to the south and southeast of Long Point to support a lake response. High resolution model guidance suggests periods of lake effect snow and upslope snow will develop this evening, and continue off and on through Saturday from the Boston Hills and western Wyoming County southward to the Chautauqua Ridge. The Canadian GEM tries to bring lake effect snow farther north towards Buffalo late tonight through Saturday morning, but this seems too far north given the upper level pattern. The one caveat, ice cover on Lake Erie can sometimes result in lake effect snow developing farther north than would be expected for a given wind direction, as ice cover essentially changes the effective shape and orientation of the lake. For now went with a few inches of accumulation up to the Buffalo Southtowns tonight through Saturday. Farther south, totals of 4-6 inches in the most persistent bands appear likely tonight through Saturday, and with that in mind issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. The higher amounts will focus across the higher terrain. Saturday night the lake effect snow will gradually diminish and end east of Lake Erie. Off Lake Ontario, a band of snow may re-organized for awhile overnight as land breeze circulations intensify and increase convergence along the south shore of the lake. This may produce a few more inches of snow, especially near and just east of Irondequoit Bay.

The one thing I will say about the rgem is it has7" (Kuchera) for kbuf when most guidance has an inch, two tops..

Now that's a first for me lol Not sure I've ever seen a 1"-8" forecast..

Last year I posted some stats on Fulton and how much they really"dink and dunk"..Well this year is no different.. Probably even a little worse lol 72" on 43 snow falls, good for consistent snows, not as much for big snows..

Ripping pretty good out with this small ass band lol

Well you know how that southerly flow is for ksyr lol Seems to warm up faster than places to the south.. Secondary trying to pop but primary low is still till our NW..

Monday event is pretty much just higher elevations.. Could sneak in a little snow before we warm..

Coming down at a decent clip at the moment..

Kbuf latest map..

Some decent members in there for Sunday/Monday.. Surface temps will be the issue.. During this period a progressive, Pacific based flow will occur, with deep cold air locked well to the north, and allowing for milder air from the south to expand northward. Within this flow several shortwaves will bring precipitation to our region, with the most potent shortwave late Sunday night and Monday. With the cold air locked to the north and a milder airmass trying to push northward, precipitation type through the week will be marginal for snow, with likely a mixed precipitation event of sleet and plain rain for each shortwave passage. Temperatures will become milder, with high temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s Monday through Thursday. This will allow for some compaction to the snowpack...and melting, but no flooding expected.

Surprised the NWS didn't issue a flizzard warning, oh well..Still about half a dusting from Matt.. I'll get there..

Monday holds a little intrigue east of lake ontario, especially tug/southern adirondacks..Comes down to those surface temps (lower elevations) and it's hard to trust the models precipitation output lol

Wpc going with the warmer forecast for Monday, NWS has all snow in the forecast as of now..

New map.. Slight changes..

Wpc

Forecast is probably based off the rgem, nothing new here lol

Well he has killed the tug and surrounding areas for a minimum of 5 years.. Watch how carols numbers have progressively gone down.. This year is even worse lol Soon the tug will be the new syracuse..

Some goodies on the euro..Few snow chances over the next 8 days verbatim..

Next one on the euro.. Surface temps ok at first before becoming more marginal but not much precipitation left..