wolfie09

For tonight/tomorrow..

Another system on the 16th that starts as rain/mix-snow..

Gfs tries on the 14th but starts to get suppressed south lol

Gfs pretty active in the LR, hopefully we can hit on one of these lol

All "Special Weather Statements" (SPS') will be discontinued, also in favor of plain language headlines. In addition, these converted messages will, for the first time, be equipped with computer-readable VTEC and placed in a bulleted "What, Where, When, Impacts" format. The exact language to be used in the plain language headlines for each affected hazard is still to be determined. NWS will host partner webinars and collect public feedback via on-line surveys during 2021 to inform development of plain language headlines. Additional Public Information Statements will be issued in the coming weeks to announce these feedback opportunities.

Euro was weak sauce day 9..

Do they lower the criteria for a warning? Or does a 3"-6"/4"-8" no longer have headlines lol

Haha great timing!!

Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024 The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is based on results of extensive social science research with partners and the public, which documented significant confusion with current NWS headline terms. This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards. This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and response to) these hazards. The major changes are as follows: - All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are today. - Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening

12z Gfs is pretty much suppressed during this time frame with just some rain over the SE.. Wether or not winter is over is ytd lol No guarantee we hit on any synoptic systems even though I believe we will be in and out of "colder" weather.. GEFS members through the D9/10 system have several scenarios..

Gfs misses us with the heaviest off to the south..

European snow to rain mid month..

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/03/02/space-hurricane-spotted-above-north-pole-study-says/6889401002/

Found ourselves a winner lol

Gfs with a LR R-S scenario.. I think this is the event some of the GEFS members are pointing to..

Typical march weather..Cold one week warm the next.. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. Northwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Friday A chance of snow showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 25. West wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night A chance of snow showers, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 28. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 12. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 54.

Under the influence of the high, warm air will be advected into the region causing temperatures to gradually warm to near normal for the start of the week before warming to above normal by mid-week. Highs Monday will climb up into the 40s Monday and 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. With a vast majority of the region still under some sort of snowpack, the warm temperatures will warrant melt, which may cause some flooding. This will be monitored as the warm up approaches.

Aloft, an upper level trough will remain anchored over the area through the end of the work week and weekend. This will instill cold air aloft at 850mb to drop into the mid negative teens Celsius, which will be cold enough to support lake effect snow showers south and southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario, but mainly south of Lake Ontario. All this said, additional moisture from a few shortwave passages Friday night and Saturday will support the more widespread lake effect snow showers. Overall, day to day accumulations of up to an inch are possible throughout the entirety of the period. Aside from the lake effect, the aforementioned cold air aloft will provide for below normal temperatures for the end of the week and weekend.

Yeah, Michigan lol

European D10..

Definitely a few winners in there..Long ways out though..

Mid 30s down to the gulf coast verbatim..

End of the gfs run.. Doing what it does best lol Spring like system..

Warm air pushing north quick now lol Jumped up almost 4° in the last 25 minutes..

Onshore flow? Hrrr doesn't have kbuf moving much today..