wolfie09

European had us missing one to the south D7/8..

Congrats MA/ SE lol

Rgem fwiw.. Could be some decent LES somewhere, has shifted a little south with band placement over it's previous runs..

We probably won't have much snow to lose by next weekend lol With temps forecasted several days in the mid-upper 30s(maybe some 40s) starting early next week.

All that being said, the upper level pattern shifts will result in surface high pressure overhead Sunday. This will ensure quiet weather conditions Sunday and the first half of Sunday night. Meanwhile, the sharpening trough in the upper level pattern will produce an area of low pressure over Colorado before tracking northeast and crossing the central Great Lakes Sunday night and the region Monday. This surface low will then give way to another low riding up the Atlantic Coast Monday night. The aforementioned shortwave crossing Saskatchewan Monday, will produce an area of low pressure that will traverse northeast into Canada. While the low remains out of the forecast region, its associated fronts will cross the area Tuesday through Wednesday. This far out, have high uncertainty as to the precipitation type for both of systems next week due to the differences between timing and track of the next system in the model guidances. Thus, as of now expect some form of precipitation either snow or a rain snow mix for both systems next week, will have to keep an eye on the pattern as time advances. Temperatures trend to near or even above normal as we head into next week.

Next system on deck is an area of low pressure currently developing over the western Gulf Coast. This system will take a northeast track toward the east coast through Thursday night. Model trends concerning this system have brought it further to the southeast over the last few runs as trends aloft have shown the development of a stronger jet streak over the central Appalachians on the lee side of the trough. This track will nearly guarantees that the precipitation type remains as all snow for our area, with warm air aloft remaining well south of the region. Model precipitation totals have continued to come down across western and north central New York, therefore have continued the recent trend to come off snow totals for this event. A general 2 to 4 inch accumulation looks reasonable before drier air aloft potentially allows for a bit of freezing drizzle toward the end of the event late Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Colder air filters into the area as the surface low pulls to the northeast and away from the Canadian Maritimes overnight Friday. As surface high pressure and upper level riding lag further behind the departing low, lingering moisture and available lift through the DGZ will allow for lake induced equilibrium levels to jump to over 7kft, allowing for lake effect snow to develop by Friday night. A tightening pressure gradient will allow strengthening NNW flow aloft to bring this snow to southern Lake Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie. Slow moving high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will allow surface riding to build in Saturday, gradually diminishing lake effect chances. Due to the relatively short fetch with the more northerly flow, overall snowfall accumulations will be relatively minor Friday night through Saturday. A more potent upper level ridge will move overhead Saturday night, bringing an end to the lake effect and leaving the area with dry conditions by Sunday morning.

Those maps are tricky because they tend to look better than it actually is lol Light blue is like 4-12 dbz lol

Well with an average SLR being around 40/1-50/1 the euro/uk don't look to bad..

Canadian with a weak secondary.. Another 1"-3"/ 2"-4" type deal..

Looks like WPC leaning with the gfs atm.. Good for the upslope areas, not as much for us in the lower elevation..

Not much difference lol

So you're telling me there's a chance.

The Monday system trended a little colder.. Still mixes lower elevations.. Probably have a better shot at a few inches with that one even though gfs is probably to high wrt QPF..

Yeah synoptic systems have destroyed this year lol Lake effect wise it hasn't been terrible.. 16", 13", 10", and 8" events with a bunch of minor ones as well.. Biggest synoptic snowfall this year is like 4.5" lol

Yeah this one is about over..

And the next system is progged to go just north of us causing mixing for lower elevations lol..Gfs continues to like the tug and southern Dacks with that one.. European is colder but light on the precip as usual..

Rgem not much.. Probably a 1"-3" over a 24 hour period.. Sounds about right lol

Nam

Gfs medium to LR doesn't look terrible, probably see some liquid mixed in but plenty of storm opportunity..

Couple snowy days on the Nam, even if it is on the ligher side..

Rgem keeps it around in some form until early morning, shutting totally down around 4-5am..

This band is still hanging on here lol Just under 3" so far since about 5 or so..(off and on)