Guidance trending toward a stronger and less progressive main
upper trough/low over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for the
latter half of the work week into the start of the weekend.
Slowly deepening upper low will trudge across the eastern Great
Lakes Thursday into Friday. Strengthening upper low will aid in the
development of an elongated area of surface low pressure that will
stretch from the central Great Lakes to central and southern New
England. This will make for a cool and damp end to the work week.
The axis of heaviest rain will likely be across areas east of the
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes where the better forcing and
moisture will lie. A half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall
will be possible by Friday morning, with the highest amounts across
the Tug Hill and western Dacks, where up to an inch of rain may
fall. Much less in the way of rainfall is expected across western
NY, with most areas expected to receive anywhere from a tenth to a
quarter of an inch. Speaking of the Tug Hill and western Dacks, the
airmass will grow cool enough Thursday night to possibly allow for a
wintry mix or changeover to wet snow across these areas, with a
light slushy accumulation not out of the question by early Friday
morning.