wolfie09

Binghamton

Latest map

Icon little weaker and South..

Fwiw best run yet verbatim..

Gfs 1 mb stronger, little north..

18z 3k and rgem at 10-1..

Yeah pretty much worse case scenario for CNY.. But it wouldn't take much to bring those heavier snows south lol Nam is about 4-5 mb stronger Wed morning compared to most guidance..

Gfs vs NAM Wed morning..

A late season accumulating snowfall event continues to appear more and more likely later Tuesday night through Wednesday across most of the region. A mid level trough will dig and sharpen into the upper Midwest late Tuesday, then reach the central Great Lakes Wednesday. DPVA and flow adjustments downstream of the digging trough will force a strong baroclinic wave to develop along a stalled frontal zone over the Ohio Valley, with the resulting surface low tracking from the Ohio Valley Tuesday night to southern New England by Wednesday afternoon. A shield of widespread precipitation will be forced by strong frontogenesis and differential temperature advection to the north of the low track, with an added boost of strong DPVA ahead of the digging trough. Model guidance continues to converge on a common solution, but there are still enough differences in low track and frontal position to yield some uncertainty with the forecast. The NAM remains on the northern edge of the guidance envelope, with the GFS/ECMWF farther south. Tuesday evening will start dry, then light precipitation will develop from southwest to northeast from late evening through the early overnight. Colder air will still be in the process of filtering into the region on low level northerly flow, so this initial light precipitation may be a rain/snow mix. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning frontogenesis will intensify as the baroclinic wave reaches our longitude, resulting in a period of moderate or even marginally heavy precipitation. The combination of ongoing cold advection, cooling from melting processes, and wet bulbing of the column will cool the atmosphere sufficiently to change all the precipitation to snow. Forecast soundings continue to suggest there may be a narrow zone of freezing rain/sleet near the rain/snow transition line, but if the farther south model solutions verify this may end up just south of the NY/PA border. The ground is warm in the second half of April, so that will initially inhibit snow accumulation. Snowfall rate is the key to accumulation at this time of year, if it snows hard enough the snow can overcome the warm surface and cover the ground. Once the ground is covered, the warm ground becomes irrelevant with an insulating layer of snow between the ground and new snow accumulation on top. Given the strong forcing in this case, we expect the warm ground to be overcome for a window from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning when snowfall rates are greatest. Initial first guess accumulations are 2-5" for lower elevations and 4-6" for higher terrain. These numbers may change with future changes in model guidance. The expected accumulation is below watch/warning criteria, but nonetheless this may have a notable impact to travel, especially around the Wednesday morning commute. The heavy/wet nature of the snow may also result in a few isolated power outages and a few downed tree limbs. The widespread snow will taper off quickly from west to east Wednesday afternoon, to be replaced by a few snow showers as cold air pours into the eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon. Lake effect and upslope snow showers will become more widespread Wednesday night through Thursday morning as the pool of coldest air aloft crosses the region. Northwest flow will direct most of this into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County eastward across Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread snow showers going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. All of this may produce localized additional accumulations of 1-3" Wednesday night through Thursday morning in the most persistent bands. The snow showers will become more scattered in nature and focused over the land by Thursday afternoon before finally ending later Thursday night as high pressure starts to build towards the eastern Great Lakes.

Syracuse, N.Y. -- Another round of spring snow looks likely this week in Upstate New York, and it could be enough to plow and shovel in Western New York. The National Weather Service office in Buffalo has issued a hazardous weather outlook for Western New York and all the counties along Lake Ontario. The weather service predicts that much of Western New York, including Buffalo and Niagara Falls, could get 2 to 5 inches of snow Tuesday and Wednesday from a low pressure system. “There remains a great deal of uncertainty with respect to the track of this low, and where the heaviest snow will fall, but it is possible that a late-season, impactful snowfall may occur,” the weather service said. Tug Hill and the Adirondacks could get several inches, too. The hills south of Syracuse are likely to get an inch or two, while lower-lying Syracuse will likely get no more than an inch or two. It all starts Tuesday as a storm system brings rain. As temperatures drop overnight, the rain could turn to slushy snow, especially at higher elevations, which tend to be several degrees colder than valleys. “Warm, wet ground will likely limit any slushy light accumulations to grassy areas/elevated surfaces,” the weather service’s Binghamton office said. Snow and rain taper off Wednesday, but a cold front then barrels in during the day, dropping temperatures to freezing overnight amid strong west winds. Those winds could generate some light lake effect snow through late Thursday morning. https://www.syracuse.com/weather/2021/04/more-april-snow-possible-for-upstate-ny.html?outputType=amp

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Low pressure will pass south of the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday, spreading widespread accumulating snow across our region. There still remains some uncertainty with the exact track of this system and location of heaviest snowfall. The snowfall will likely be heavy enough to impact travel later Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the worst travel conditions likely occuring during the Wednesday morning commute. This will be a heavy, wet snow, and may result in isolated power outages and downed tree limbs.

Morning discussion..WPC On Tuesday night, a band of 850-700 mb frontogenesis will help promote enhanced ascent and dynamically cool the column and lead to snowfall rates that result in snow accumulations over northern Indiana and the northwest Ohio, possibly into adjacent lower Michigan. The strengthening area of low pressure and associated precipitation is then forecast to move northeast and into the Interior New York and northern New England by D3/Wednesday. Snow will remain possible along the axis of strongest frontogenesis and to the northwest of the low pressure system, but there remains moderate uncertainty regarding the precip type and resultant snow in western to northern New York and northern VT. The 00z GFS remains the most progressive solution and thus the farthest east with the heavy snow axis in NH/western ME, while the 00z ECMWF, NAM, and other guidance continues to be highlighting snow further west in the NY Adirondacks and further west in western NY State. WPC probabilities have low chances for greater than 4 inches of snow from western to northern New York State on Wed.

Ukmet a little east..

Canadian

Gfs

Rgem 10-1 and Kuchera.

Kbgm has mainly a rain event as of now.. KSYR Tuesday Night Showers likely, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Showers. High near 44. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

3k still pretty far west verbatim..

6z gfs still liking more of an eastern solution..

Kbgm

Decent spread between expected and High end..