wolfie09

This was 12Z so a little east..

Euro

Canadian

Icon a bit east at 0Z..

0z Rgem and NAM fwiw..

Rgem fwiw

Our attention then turns to another strong mid level trough, digging into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night before reaching the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes later Wednesday. A strong baroclinic wave will develop along the frontal zone in response to increasing forcing and flow adjustments downstream of the mid level trough, with the resulting surface low running down the boundary from the Ohio Valley Tuesday night to eastern NY by Wednesday afternoon. Strong frontogenesis and differential temperature advection on the cold side of the surface boundary will support widespread precipitation later Tuesday night through the first half of Wednesday over the eastern Great Lakes. While the large scale pattern is well agreed upon, the precise details of frontal position and low track will be critical in terms of the surface temperatures, thermal profiles, and snow potential. Model guidance has shown a good deal of run to run changes on these details, not atypical for an event still 3 days out. A swath of accumulating snow will almost certainly occur to the northwest of the low track, but model guidance has varied on placement of this from over western and north central NY to north of Lake Ontario mainly on the Canadian side of the border. There may be a narrow ribbon of sleet and freezing rain as well in the transition zone between rain and snow. For this cycle, trended the forecast quite a bit colder for later Tuesday night and Wednesday with a rain/snow mix through that time frame, especially in areas close to the Canadian border. The current forecast represents a solution a little farther north and warmer than the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM to blend in some previous, farther north model runs. It should also be noted that past history shows this type of system has a propensity to track farther north and west than model guidance would suggest several days out. The range of potential outcomes runs from very little snow at all to accumulating, impactful snow for late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Stay Tuned. Wednesday night cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes behind this system, with wrap around scattered snow showers areawide. The airmass will grow cold enough for lake effect snow showers southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario later Wednesday night.

Yup, here it is.. Low pressure will pass over, or just south of the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday, spreading widespread precipitation into the area. A band of accumulating snow will likely occur to the northwest of the low track. There remains a great deal of uncertainty with respect to the track of this low, and where the heaviest snow will fall, but it is possible that a late season, impactful snowfall may occur across portions of the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

European on the opposite side of the spectrum..(still getting a little wrap around)

Ukmet still the farthest east..

It was a east of 0z..

It's still snowing for CNY but timing here is worse.. Light snow starts here Wed morning..

Well you can thank the-EPO lol

Ukie still on the eastern side of the envelope..

Canadian is decent.. What ever sticks, sticks, easy clean up lol

Lets keep it going lol

Kbgm Not much change to the long term. The eastern US is expected to continue to be bombarded with troughing keeping temperatures below average over the long term and most likely longer. The EPO is currently negative expected to stay negative through next weekend along with a slightly negative AO and NAO. This favors a colder pattern for the Northeastern US.

Maybe not this season but that's our main source of snow outside of LES lol At least Imby.. We'll see what happens lol

European not much different than 0Z.. System goes over us, wrap around/enhancement behind the front..

Canadian similar to the GFS..

GEFS

Nice day to head to the falls (orwell), highs in the upper 40s but with the lack of snowmelt and rain it was pretty dry..

Little bump east on the icon..

Cold enough at 850mb this time of year to get a little help from the lake lol