wolfie09

Yeah Oz actually went just east of us, yesterday 12z went west of us so that's a start lol The snow comes from wrap around/enhancement verbatim..

European looks better for CNY for at least this run..

Ukmet similar to 12z.. Comes down to timing as usual.. 100+ hours out, plenty of time for change lol

Canadian farther west..

Crazy temp contrast lol At 10-1

NWS take, as of now.. Of concern in the upper levels next week is a closed low over the Hudson Bay, spanning its associated trough south across the mid- western states. This trough will allow an additional potent shortwave to pass through its base Tuesday night, which will help advance the trough east and pull the closed low south out of the Hudson Bay and into the Northern Great Lakes by Wednesday night. The closed low will continue to allow a few shortwaves to rotate through while it crosses overhead of the Great Lakes Thursday before heading northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Upper level ridging will then ensue for the end of the work week. Thus, to start off the period on Tuesday, a shortwave passage through the aforementioned upper level trough to our west will have a well defined cold frontal boundary also placed to our west. While the next potent shortwave rounds the base of the upper level trough, this will not only slowly advance the cold front east Tuesday, but also induce a surface low to form over Missouri/Illinois. This low will then progress northeast overhead of NY state, and cross the state with the cold front late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Therefore, expect a dry start to the day on Tuesday with chances for some rain showers to increase late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Ahead of the frontal passage Tuesday, some warm air advection will lie overhead, which will allow for some highs in the 50s and a few low 60s. These mild spring temperatures won`t last long due to the passages of the front. A much colder air mass will work its way across the region Wednesday, with nearly a 15 degree drop in temperature at 850mb. High temperatures Wednesday will likely occur early in the day before the frontal passage, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. As the surface low departs northeast out of the area, only chances for a few snow showers will lie across the far eastern portions of the area Wednesday night. Yet another shortwave will pass through the now upper level closed low, which will interact with the leftover wrap around moisture Thursday to produce a few more early morning rain/snow showers before switching to all rain due to the addition of the sun for places across the Finger Lakes region and to its east. Cold air overhead will continue to support highs in the upper 40s and low 50s Thursday.

Few members bring the front through quick enough but many are slower like the OP as well.

Looks about right, similar to the european at this juncture.. I'm sure the timing will change some as we get closer..

We haven't hit the timing on one of these all year and we have had many opportunities lol

New update

Still getting into some wrap around moisture.. Slowly adding up..

GeFS through it's entirety..

European keeping everything west..

Ukmet Fwiw

Ggem keeps most of the snow to our NW with a secondary potent SW delivering some snow like the GFS.. Little bit of a lake response as well..

Picked up another 1/4" of liquid overnight, storm total 0.61"..

I'd take snow over rain even if it doesn't stick much..

Gfs with a couple of wintry threats..

It even changed to snow in boston, albeit probably not sticking..

Icon FWIW

Our attention will then turn to a more significant feature in the form of a strong cold front that is forecast to approach the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon, then cross our region sometime between late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Model consensus on timing of the frontal passage continues to differ a little bit. Thus will keep precip chances capped in the high chance range until better agreement on timing of this feature locks in, after which can easily see raising PoPs into the "Likely" range with later packages. Precip does appear as though it may be anafrontal. Significance here is that with an airmass in the wake of the boundary possibly colder than the one we currently have over us, will see the possibility once again for some snow to mix in during this timeframe. Timing will again play a role as well being latter April. Cold upper low then crosses over the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold, moist cyclonic flow aloft and temps off the deck that may be cold enough to support a lake response (nocturnal) will keep a few rain and snow showers in the forecast to close out the period.

Gfs still showing flakes for Tues/wed..

Probably not done with flakes this year, maybe for CNY but not all around us lol

Finished with 0.36" of rain, 41°..