wolfie09

Nam a little east and drier.. Nice looking track though..

Temps aren't really that marginal.. Mid-upper 20s during the afternoon hours.. Obviously the sun angle will still be an issue somewhat..

Solid consensus at this point in time .

6z Nambino

Gfs

Kuchie still at it lol How much would stick during the day Thursday who knows lol

Nam

Still some spread but good amount of hits..

Definitely a little enhancement showing up..

Gfs looks good..

Nam

First guess.

A stacked storm system passing over northern Quebec will swing an ana-style cold front through the region on Wednesday, bringing widespread rain to the area throughout the day. Temperatures will peak early in the morning before falling through the rest of the day. Things get a bit more interesting heading into Wednesday evening as a late season snowstorm looks to take shape and impact the area. As the previous system pushes northeast towards Newfoundland, the trailing upper level longwave trough amplifies, taking on a more negative tilt and slowing its eastward progression. Latest model guidance has been keying in on a region of enhanced precipitation late Wednesday night as additional PVA enhances forcing downstream and the left exit region of a strengthening upper level jet passes near the area. This will be especially problematic as it coincides with temperatures dropping low enough to see a changeover to snow. As this area of heavier precip passes across the area, higher elevations will fall closer to freezing sooner and could see accumulating snow sooner and greater amounts than other areas. Not out of the question that snow across the western Southern Tier and the Eastern Lake Ontario region could be heavy at times. A tough forecast this far out as final snow accumulations with this system will be sensitive to the many factors at play, but it is looking increasingly likely that winter weather headlines will be needed Wednesday night into Thursday. Forecast remains on track for the ensuing lake enhanced snows that will be found across most of the western counties Thursday and Thursday night, leading to some additional minor snow accumulations during this period. Temperatures will be below normal Thursday and Thursday night with daytime highs near or below freezing, and overnight lows in the teens and low 20s

We'll just have to wait and see what happens lol I'm sure we will see snow, it will be heavy wet stuff and look pretty lol How much is ytd.. European guidance seems to be the wettest fwiw..(CNY)

Nam doesn't look great verbatim but it's still LR for the model..The one thing we have going for us is timing, with a potential changeover between 7-10 pm..

Wpc An area of low pressure developing across the Mid-Atlantic will lift northeast Thursday along a slowing cold front. This low will strengthen in response to rapid height falls as an anomalous mid-level trough advects east from the Great Lakes, and an intensifying divergence maxima within the RRQ of an upper jet streak. Large scale ascent will spread precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, but WAA ahead of the front suggests all precip will be rain initially. However, as the low deepens and the cold front drops slowly southeast, the column will cool rapidly to allow a p-type transition from rain to snow. This is likely to be additionally enhanced by robust fgen/deformation NW of the low. While there remains uncertainty into how much precip will occur as the column cools enough for snow, this enhanced ascent through the fgen should provide at least a burst of snowfall, enough to overcome the antecedent rain and warm conditions, especially in the terrain. WPC probabilities for 4 inches are as high as 30-40% in the Adirondacks and Tug Hill where post frontal upslope flow will enhance snowfall, and 10-20% across much of Upstate New York and into Vermont.

I guess NWS has given up on the gfs for the year lol The progressive pattern of the past week or so will become temporarily blocked during this period...with a stacked storm system eventually taking shape over the southern Quebec. This evolution could include a problematic late season snowstorm for New England and the Adirondacks...and possibly as far west as the Tug Hill. Higher confidence will be given to the ensuing lake snows that will be found across most of the western counties Thursday and Thursday night. There is relatively high confidence that just about everyone in the region will pick up at least minor snow accumulations during this period and possibly a plowable snowfall for the Tug Hill and areas southeast of both lakes. Before we get back to winter though...an ana-style cold front will slowly move through the region on Wednesday. Have bumped pops up a bit and also changed pcpn from convective to stratiform (all rain). The changeover to snow Wednesday night has also been changed to stratiform. Not out of the question that the snow across the Ern Lake Ontario region could be heavy at times during the second half of Wednesday night. As is typically the case...used a blend of ECMWF and Can NH

0z Gfs A little over an inch liquid in the form of snow for ksyr..

Wpc D3/4

Gfs

With the lack of snowmelt we can use the liquid, about 0.4" of rain so far, pouring out..