wolfie09

For eastern lake ontario region the gfs/euro have 3"-6", ukmet/Ggem 6+, still time to trend either direction..

European not the greatest for kbuf CWA..

12z ukie

Canadian still onboard..

12z Gfs pretty similar to last nights euro.. Cold air may hang around just long enough for another light accumulation day 6 before we warm back up..

6z gfs was meh..lol Another small event a day or two later verbatim..

Amplified mid-upper pattern will continue across the CONUS for the middle and end of next week as a sizable longwave trough dominates the eastern third of the country for much of the period with well below normal temperatures expected for Thursday and Friday. Main features will be an upper low that closes off as it moves across the Great Lakes Thursday before pivoting northward into southeastern Canada as the main upper trough takes on a negative tilt. Meanwhile at the surface a powerful cold front will plow across the lower Great Lakes sometime later Wednesday and Wednesday night before slowing its` eastward progression owed to the upper trough taking on that negative tilt. This will also help to spawn an intensifying area of surface low pressure that will move north along the boundary passing just east of our forecast area. GOMEX and western Atlantic in play, so will have plenty of moisture to work with. In terms of sensible weather, strong forcing and plentiful moisture surging northward ahead of the boundary will bring a round of rain to the area initially before much colder air works in right behind the boundary. Rain will change to snow late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with an accumulating snowfall likely through the day on Thursday as deepening low pressure moves north-northeastward along the boundary that is just to the east of our area keeping plenty of moisture in place. The potential exists for winter weather headlines for snow accumulation Wednesday night through the end of the work week. At this time, the highest confidence for multiple inches of snow is on the Tug Hill Plateau. Core of the very cold Canadian airmass will settle across the region with the possibility for some upslope snow showers as well as the possibility for some lake effect/enhanced snow showers downwind of the Lakes for the end of the work week as wrap around moisture lingers across the region. Expect some modification of the airmass by the start of the weekend, however the next shortwave in the pipeline may approach from the northwest toward the very end of the period.

European shifted east Fwiw..

Ukie

0z Canadian and Gfs.

Some rain to get through first.. Recent rainfall and snowmelt from recent warm weather is causing rises on Black River and its tributaries and other rivers and streams that drain the Tug Hill, including the Salmon River. The highest levels will be reached later this weekend into early next week as another system brings around 1 inch of additional rainfall late tonight through Sunday. There remains a small risk for minor flooding. My backyard is the salmon river lol But it's a pretty big drop off so doubtful I ever have to worry about flooding..

Lastly the Canadian..

Ukie a little east.. Obviously doubtful it stays the course over the next several days lol Guess we'll see..

Gfs

Solid for all of kbuf CWA..

Some decent ones in there..

Some guidance is suggesting fairly significant cyclogenesis along the aforementioned boundary as it nears the East coast Wednesday night into Thursday. This could result in an Aprils Fools day storm to our east with a period of steady accumulating snow for parts of our forecast area not out of the question. ECMWF and Can NH packages appear to have the best handle on this scenario and will remain as preferred guidance.

European still has it, just farther east and more realistic than feet of snow lol

A little to warm for the lake shore verbatim according to TT but looks to be another timing CF/frontal wave situation.. Obviously numbers taken with a grain of salt..

Icon is with the gfs..

It's actually hr 144+ At least on the euro..

Gfs likes east ..

I'll take the Canadian as well lol Couple shots at snow verbatim..

Yes please

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A longwave trough over the Northern and Central Plains will sharpen while it tracks east towards the Ohio Valley Saturday night. An intensifying jet stream and deep moisture advection ahead of the trough will promote cyclogenesis along an advancing cold front across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong warm air advection will take place across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night. Mostly dry conditions, thanks to a dry airmass in place. There remains uncertainty going into Sunday as models diverge with the track of deepening low pressure. The potential exists for a widespread rainfall with pockets of moderate to heavy rain and strong winds behind the cold front. Another factor is the timing of the cold front which could promote chances of showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds Sunday afternoon. Whether light or heavy, rainfall is likely Sunday. Eventually the cold front will move east across the Lower Great Lakes and models do agree that cold air will filter into the region Sunday night into Monday. Northwest flow with 850mb temperatures falling to near -10C by Monday morning will transition rain to snow showers and snow showers will likely continue across the higher terrain and southeast of the Lakes. Lake enhancement and lingering lake effect snow showers will continue into Monday espeically east of Lake Ontario. Light snowfall accumulations are possible on the Tug Hill late Sunday night. Temperatures will take a tumble Saturday night through Sunday night with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday night to the 20s to low 30s Sunday night. Low confidence on the Sunday high temperature due to the uncertainty in the speed of the cold front. At this time, went with a model blend with high temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather will start the next work week with high pressure tracking from the Tennesee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast. An upper level ridge will track overhead during this time. Temps will start off chilly with highs in the 40s Monday and lows in the 20s/30s Monday night. Return flow around the high will increase warming into mid-week with temperatures reaching the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday and 40s Tuesday night. The upper level ridge will move off the east coast by Wednesday and a longwave trough will approach the Great Lakes region. The next system looks dynamic with strong forcing and moisture advection moving into the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Cold air advection may bring some very cold air down from Canada and increase chance for lake effect snow showers just in time for April.