wolfie09

Next 5-6 days GFS vs European

Cooler weather not far away but it will take it's time getting here lol (Temps valid 12:30 pm)

87° here but feels like 96° Booo Those mid 70s from Thursday through Sunday are gonna feel nice lol

Second official heat wave at the sizzlecuse..

Wpc for Wednesday and weekly..

Although dampening, the mid level trough that has been nearly stationary across the Upper Midwest for the last several days will finally move across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. The corresponding mid level height falls and associated surface front with encounter and humid and increasingly unstable airmass across the region resulting in a more widespread risk for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall with thunderstorms will be a concern with precipitable water value 2-3 standard deviation above normal. Shear profiles and instability do not look overly impressive likely keeping severe weather threat very low but not zero. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rather unsurprisingly...the medium range guidance continues to exhibit notable discrepancies in the handling of an upper level trough projected to drop southeastward across the Great Lakes region late in the week and over the Independence Day weekend...with notable differences still seen with respect to its positioning... timing...and whether it eventually truly closes off. With this in mind...have once again undercut NBM precip chances for this period...with generally chance PoPs indicated save for some likelies across interior sections on Thursday...in tandem with a passing weak frontal boundary. Enough instability should still be around to warrant a chance of thunder on Thursday with mainly just plain rain showers thereafter...though daytime heating of the progressively cooler airmass aloft could still yield an isolated afternoon storm or two each of the following three afternoons. What does appear more likely is that temperatures and humidity levels will gradually trend downward through at least Saturday... with daytime highs largely settling back into the mid 70s...and nighttime lows mostly dipping back into the much more comfortable upper 50s and lower 60s.

Pretty bad when it's 77° out and that's a 1.4° drop off from this time yesterday lol

Still 77° here, forecast tomorrow is only 83° lol Previously it was 87°.. I've noticed it's a "West" wind now instead of out of the south.. We'll see..

The sizzlecuse heat having no problem hoping on 81 and riding north lol Already 87° as of noon.. Forecast high is 90° which is the only one forecasted during this stretch..The good thing is it will be short lived as we head back towards normal wed through sat..

Sunday night a negatively tilted trough placed over the Upper Great Lakes and the Northern Plains will have its eastern most edge just west of the state. All the while, high pressure will be anchored over the Mid-Atlantic coast with its northwestern edge also aligned over the area. This scenario will likely be the stagnant player throughout the first half of the work week, before the trough amplifies and and digs into the Central and Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night. Therefore with this pattern, south/southwesterly winds across the area will keep filtering in the Gulf of Mexico heat and humidity, thus the heat from Sunday will linger into Monday with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with the exception of the Northern Finger Lakes region where some low 90 degree readings are expected. That being said, with the heat and humidity, heat indices may meet heat advisory criteria Monday. Otherwise, temperatures will begin to cool Tuesday as the trough aloft advances its associated boundary slightly east, with highs ranging in the 80s and a few 90 degree readings possible in the Finger Lakes region. Otherwise outside of the heat, chances for showers and thunderstorms will mainly be diurnally driven each day, with the best chances occuring inland on the lake breeze boundaries. Then Tuesday night, a shortwave will ripple through the longwave trough, which will push the stationary boundary (northwest of the region) across the state which will increase PoPs from northwest to southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad upper level ridging centered off the Delmarva coastline at the start of Wednesday will slowly weaken and settle a bit further southeastward through Saturday...while modest upper level troughing over Central Canada also digs southeastward. At the surface...this will allow an ill-defined frontal boundary to gradually sag across the Great Lakes and into our region...with one or more weak waves of low pressure potentially rippling northeastward along this boundary. As a result...our weather will generally become more unsettled with time as we push through the latter half of the work week. This will particularly be the case during each afternoon and evening as any synoptic and mesoscale boundaries interact with burgeoning diurnal instability and lead to the development of diurnally-driven convection...though any passing weak surface waves (nearly impossible to time this far out in advance) could also lead to periods of increased precip coverage at night should these actually materialize. Otherwise...we can expect fairly humid conditions to remain in place out through at least Thursday...albeit with a general downward day-to-day trend in temperatures as heights aloft fall and our airmass cools. Later on in the period...the medium range guidance continues to flop around quite a bit regarding the exact evolution of the above mentioned upper level trough...with solutions ranging from a much more progressive and well-defined feature (ala the latest GFS) to a much weaker feature that eventually cuts off into a closed low well to our west next weekend. Given the resulting degree of uncertainty in the large-scale pattern...really have no choice but to maintain at least some semblance of chance PoPs into the start of the Independence Day weekend...along with a blend of guidance temps.

This is what happens when the sun comes out lol 7° higher than forecasted.. Sizzlecuse hit 90°, well on its way to an official heat wave.. Heat advisories also issued.. .HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values of 95 to 99 degrees expected. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Genesee, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Slow mover..

Clouds and showers should keep us on the"cooler" side today, I think forecast high is 80ish.. It will also allow for a bit drier air to encroach from the south. This will mean party sunny skies returning over the Southern Tier and possibly as far north as I-90. Where the clouds linger east of Lake Ontario, temperatures will be held back today, however as you move progressively farther south in the area with increasing sunshine, conditions will get increasingly sultry. Additionally, decent southerly flow will result in efficient vertical mixing, which should aide in making the mercury jump this afternoon south of I-90. This will result in localized areas seeing heat index values jump toward 90F with the residual humidity from overnight showers.

On and off showers this morning, only 0.12" in the bucket, better than nothing I guess lol Currently 72°, Dp 65°, RH 82%...

Sizzle sizzle lol Looks like kbuf may miss out on another heatwave, ksyr will be close..Not that it won't be hot in buffalo just low-mid 80s instead of 90s(near 90)..

It won't be a complete wash out this week, maybe get grazed tomorrow, Thursday/Friday trough slowly moves east..

The majority of the near term forecast will be determined by the evolution of the MCS and subsequent remnant MCV that is currently advancing northeastward over western Lower Michigan. The current hi-res models, especially the FV3, have the convective complex well depicted, though a bit farther south than radar and satellite currently are verifying. Given the trajectory, this bring the MCS toward southern Lake Huron by the end of day today with convective activity rapidly dying around it by that time. The remnant vortex then should advance toward Ottawa overnight, leaving the Niagara Frontier and southern shore of Lake Ontario on the periphery of its rain shield. This yields a rather stark PoP gradient between central Lake Ontario and the Southern Tier with decidedly higher PoPs to the north. In fact, there may not be much shower activity that really manifests much south of I-90, however low end PoPs remain for that area especially Saturday morning as low-level moisture in convergent flow into the MCV will cross the area during that time frame.

GFS for Saturday, close call on wether we see any substantial rain..

First potential rain is Saturday/Sat night but even that time period is up in the air..

GFS is pretty moist throughout the work week..

A nearly stalled frontal boundary across the central Great Lakes on Friday will very slowly make its way east through the weekend. This is due to the flow aloft, with an upper level trough forecast to dig across the Upper Great Lakes. The result will be several waves of low pressure which will track along the nearly stalled boundary. These will remain to our west Friday and probably Friday night, which will likely keep the region rain-free. After this, there will be a persistent risk that a convectively driven wave will clip our area and bring a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The best chances will be across northern and western portions of the cwa, however it`s important to note that there will be plenty of rain-free time between any waves that clip the area. The forecast leans on model consensus, since timing convectively driven waves this far off is uncertain. Otherwise, it will generally hot during the period, with high temperatures mainly in the 80s. It will become more humid with time, with dew points rising from the 50s on Friday to the 60s by Sunday as the boundary gets progressively closer. A persistent southerly breeze will result in downslope warming across the lake plains, where overnight lows will only be around 70s, and where the warmest daytime highs will be located. A holding pattern in the mid-level pattern will keep the forecast relatively similar from day to day for the first few days of the new work week. The negatively tilted mid-level trough spanning across the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains from earlier in the weekend will have subtly weakened and shifted to the east by Sunday night. The trough will then remain relatively in place through the first half of the week. Meanwhile, multiple waves will rotate through the overall trough which will support showers and afternoon thunderstorms each day, though it is important to note that there will be some dry periods from time to time. The best locations will remain across the northern and western portions of the CWA. Due to the uncertainty between the different model runs it is hard to pin point the exact timing and locations of convection and therefore the forecast resembles a consensus of the models.

Picture perfect day today, high of 67° so far, had an overnight low of 44°..Dew point and humidity in the upper 40s..It's going to be tough to say goodbye lol

Depends on the strength and positioning of the WAR.. Prevents it from moving much, actually some guidance has hinted at pushing the boundary back west.. Thenceforth, the forecast details will be heavily dictated by the position of the frontal boundary, which in turn will be influenced by the balance between a building ridge over the western Atlantic and multiple additional waves of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. At this point the medium range guidance remains at least somewhat at odds as to which of these features will have more influence, though there does seem to be at least some semblance of a trend toward the western Atlantic ridge eventually becoming more dominant over time

On the other hand you have the Canadian which dumps 2"-6" over kbuf CWA, most of this in the Monday-wed time frame..Some scattered stuff over the weekend.. Still pretty far out..

Showers and storms do return Thursday/Friday though..